Escape Plan For me, I'm an asset allocator and I manage risk and opportunity through maintaining and/or adjusting my asset allocation based upon my needs, risk tolerance and market conditions. Plus, I limit how much exposure I have to any one fund to better deal with fund manager and strategy risk.. I'm now 72+ years of age and have been an investor since the age of 12.
In 2008 & 2009 my asset allocation was 10% cash, 20% income and 70% equity. With this, I averaged down the equity side, booking a good bit of losses, as the market continued to side through this process. However, when things turned at the S&P 500 price level of 666, I was there to enjoyed the ride back up.
Through the years as equities became more overvalued I kept trimming my exposure to them and at retirement I was at an asset allocation of 15% cash, 35% income and 50% equity. This would have been around 2014. I maintained this asset allocation until a little better than a year ago. I continued to reduce my exposure to equities as they became more overvalued and reconfigured to a 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity asset allocation. I wrote about doing this.
With the recession now in place I have moved to a 15% cash, 40% income and 45% equity allocation. Thus far, in this debacle, I have sold nothing and have been a buyer on the equity side of my portfolio. Now that I have reached a near full asset allocation to equities I have now become a buyer on the income side of my portfolio. This is because many bonds have now taken a hit and from my perspective they offer better value than just holding a greater percentage of cash. Since, my portfolio also generates a good bit of income this gives me the ability to continue to buy in down markets or take the money to my wallet, if needed.
I've been on the board back into the FundAlarm days and have detailed my investment activity through these years. For me, the asset allocation model of investing has worked well although, at times, I've traded around the edges using special investment positions (spiffs). I've written about these in the past as well.
FWIW ... Overall, my success in investing, through the years, has come by staying invested and receiving the benefit of organic growth plus compounding. I was there in 1974 with that debacle as well as those that came during the 80's. And, I've been a buyer in all of them including this current bear market which will pass as well.
And ... so it goes.
Wishing all ... "Good Investing."
I am ... Old_Skeet
Escape Plan Hi Sirs...
Maybe too late to get out now. Old_skeet snd catch22 post good investing monthly commentary/strategies. Maybe others posted good guides to follow if retired /closed to retirement. I am so glad following many others advise and place mom retired portfolio into conservative last year, 35/65. She lost very little past few months. I got out after Ted got out in ~ 2019.
I think we will see seesaw patterns next 4-6 weeks /much volatility until everything open up again/slow recovery. Not everything is working currently even CDs so low yields. You can argue stocks are getting cheaper now and these maybe good vehicles to buy moving forward. Corp Bonds not doing well because companies have no revenues going forward and may not be able to pay their creditors.
If you feel unease perhaps consider place at least 40-60% of portfolio divided in incomes based products [corp bonds/munis/US Tbonds]. Rest of portfolio divided evenly in cash and stocks. You may not loose much on downs days but may not go up if indeed recovery is on the way. Once you see there us indeed recovery 3 -6 months from today perhaps start slowly buy more equities by then.
Stocks /market maybe lower 4-5 weeks from today, but could be much higher 4-5 years from today
Maybe another easier lazy approaches maybe redistribute bulk of your portfolio into Tdf 2015 and cash. let it ride by itself, not much worries.
If you have schwab or fidelity, maybe reasonable to visit their cpa/investment advisors then possibly make up/draw up new escape plans after
On other thought, maybe a great buyer market imho if you have 15 yrs left.
Escape Plan Thank you.
I can honestly say that in my 20 years of active investing, I've never witnessed more fear than I have the past 2-3 weeks. Even 2008-2009.
At some event level, is there a tipping point? That whatever I can get in CDs is good enough?
Massive Carnage In The CEF Space UPDATE with a focus on PCI & PDI
PIMCO CEF Update | It's 2008 ReduxSummary° The PIMCO UNII report showed some modest progress on coverage and UNII levels.
° Obviously, the traditional looks at this report are less important given what is happening in the markets and with these funds specifically.
° We expect distributions to be maintained in most of the taxable bond CEFs from PIMCO and that the muni funds are investable for the first time in
years.
° Most funds earned their distribution in the month according to NII production with small shortfalls in the others. Nothing concerning.
Cracker Barrel, Olive Garden Parent Darden Suspend Dividends as Business Falters @Mark - Thanks, I couldn't imagine that tax money would be laundered through the Care Act to stockholders but, who knows, what stock holders get, they give back in campaign contributions or favors. I read that Chevron was facing the decision to withhold dividends for the first time and were saying they would never do that. Their problem isn't a virus one, but I would imagine that wouldn't matter for purposes of government help. I am so conservatively invested (if it could be called invested) that my major loses are from CVX stock I inherited as Texaco 40
years ago and just let ride while reinvesting the dividends. Someone like me (and most of us) really don't need the free money we will get (and donate to a need). If I got dividends in addition from a subsidized industry, my head would spin. Thanks again. It's good to know that won't happen.
Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !! PTIMX YTD=0.1%....BMBSX YTD=0.5% and its bond rating is much higher.
For 1-3 years PTIMX has better performance.
It depends on what you try to achieve.
Massive Carnage In The CEF Space I think you missed my main point. If you use his services he has 3 portfolios for you to select from, the funds/ETF/CEFs/whatever in each and all the trades he does. So yes, you do know his portfolios in detail.
Going to cash with these portfolios and/or what other managers do? I doubt many do it because most managers don't have this flexibility, after all, you pay them to invest your money. Over the years I looked at many mutual funds and from memory, I remember Romick with FPACX at 30-40% cash and Eric Cinnamond in 2008-9 (can't remember the fund) was over 50% in cash.
I don't know any fund that invests at any given time so much in cash.
But, I can do what I want and it's the first time I ever sold everything. It was a great move I will remember for many years to come and probably saved me about 25-30%.
I did sell in the past 20-40% but never that much.
My situation has changed too, I'm retired now so protecting my capital is very important.
So, maybe you should say good for you. I love when other investors are making money and making great moves.
Since I'm flexible I can own any fund at any given time and since last week I'm mostly in HY munis. Why do you need to see my portfolio at all times? if you know my style (2-3 funds) and I said in January this year and several times after that I owned HY Munis and the 3 funds I like are NHMAX,ORNAX,OPTAX and the rest are in Multi and I mentioned IOFIX as the best one, you don't need to be rocket scientist to know that I probably own 2-3 funds out of these 4 funds.
In the last 1-2 days, I also said that since last week I'm in again mostly in HY munis, which funds do think I have? really?
Massive Carnage In The CEF Space The guy who writes these articles is a very good CEFs analyst and sells his services. I love his writings and their depth. Late last year he was posting his portfolio results several times and how they did much better per risk/reward than stocks.
The following is what I posted about the article we are discussing
after years of great results, we are now seeing the real volatility of CEFs where many retail investors didn't understand the risk. While SPY lost over 30% PCI,PDI,PTY lost 43-46% and I'm guessing that your 3 portfolios were down accordingly at the bottom on March 23rd.
Another interesting observation: 3 year annual average performance as of 3/27/20202 is ...BND(index) 4.8.......price return...PCI 2.3%...PDI 3%.......NAV return is even worse...PCI 0.1%...PDI 1.1%. It's an eye-opener.
IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't It was a quick unique black swan. The last one, 2008-9, was slower. The hard part, the next one can be years from now and you would invest based on the last fiasco. Many would buy US bond index or treasuries just to see an average annual return of 2-2.5% in the next several years.
IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't I got killed here, losing over 40% in a month. I failed to ask and answer the why did I buy this in advance. The answer would have been for income. But what I bought was something with greater than equity risk in the name of boosting the return of the bond component of my portfolio. Wrong fund for the intended mission. This buy resulted in the biggest loss in the shortest time I've experienced in over 30 years. No asset manager likes to see assets leave their fund, but I think this fund could have done a much better job communicating with shareholders, and protecting their risk. Maybe more investors would have stayed. The best equity funds do this in tough times and with success keep investors on their team. I think of a firm like Grandeur Peak, for example.
AGG Up 8.4% This Week Usually, but not always. Index funds, especially bond index funds, are also managed, though perhaps not in the way you are thinking.
A long narrative about nothing. We are talking about US tot bond index. The following 3 different funds from 3 different companies are very close. For 5
years as of 3-27-2020...BND(VG)+FXNAX(Fidelity)+AGG(Blackrock) performance is 3.36-3.37%.
This is what you call investing based on an index and why they are so close.
I didn't say ALL indexes in all cases, but, you knew all that.
Timeless advice from Peter Bernstein Timeless advice from Peter Bernstein - bumped into this interview via Seeking Alpha
https://jasonzweig.com/a-long-chat-with-peter-l-bernstein/.
Timeless advice from Peter Bernstein Peter Bernstein Interview. — Money.com, Oct. 15, 2004
Quotes:
Because the more you think this is easy, the more you persuade yourself that you can take the heat. And then, the sooner the oven gets hot, the more shocked you are and the worse you get burned. After 50
years in the investment business I still haven’t got it all clear.
Understanding that we do not know the future is such a simple statement, but it’s so important. Investors do better where risk management is a conscious part of the process.
Somebody once said that if you’re comfortable with everything you own, you’re not diversified.
The great Michigan economist Paul MacCracken, at the blackest moment of 1974, told me never to believe in apocalyptic scenarios.
20 years at 4% Yes, exactly. That's why I love looking at rolling returns. You can't decide the year you were born and the 20-year period(s) you were invested. Going back 60 years through February, the S&P 500 delivered anywhere from 5.6% to 18.3% annualized over 481 20-year rolling periods. Timing is everything.
20 years at 4% "... not a single equity sector generated a double-digit annualized return over the last 20 years, nor did any major asset class."
Letting that sink in a minute. That's harsh Dude.
20 years at 4% I've asked for permission to reproduce the two graphics from today's Research Note in our April issue. One gave the returns for about 20 assets or indexes and the other compared current valuations to today's. I'll share if I'm allowed.
Other highlights from today's Leuthold note:
... these results mostly reflect how exorbitant valuations were at the start of that 20-year span, and not how depressed they are today.
...the S&P 500 isn’t yet statistically cheap, but it is vastly more attractive than it was just five weeks ago.
... not a single equity sector generated a double-digit annualized return over the last 20 years, nor did any major asset class.
Incredibly, the S&P 500 Energy sector (+2.4%) and Technology sector (+2.7%) delivered about the same results to those who bought them in March 2000 and held on for the ride.
In sum, initial valuations matter, and the only good thing to come out of the last five weeks’ action is that the “cost of entry” into the S&P 500 has finally closed in on its historical average, and almost all other stock market cohorts (domestic and international) are well below their averages. Veteran investors will recall that the Y2K peak proved to be an excellent time to shift into Mid and Small Caps, and it’s worth noting that median valuations for these stocks are 15-25% below those prevailing at that historic turning point. Keep this good news in mind when dealing with the coming onslaught of bad news.
20 years at 4% Nope, not a bond yield.
Today is the 20th anniversary of the peak of the dot-com bubble. According to the Leuthold Group, returns for the S&P 500 have averaged 4.4% per year from that date to this one. The MSCI Emerging Markets and Barclays Bond Aggregate have had identical 5% returns. Mid-caps and small caps have substantially bested all three.
Among the sliced and diced domestic sub-sectors:
S&P 500 High Beta: -1.4% annually
S&P 500 Low Volatility: 9.2%
S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats: 9.3%
FSTE NAREIT Index: 9.0%
Spot gold: 9.0%
Of course measuring for the moment before one market collapse to a moment somewhere within another one is weird and unrepresentative. We ought all remember that the next time someone tries pedaling an investment based on its 3- or 5-year returns when those returns fall within a window of steadily rising prices.
See? I'm an optimist! I'm foreseeing the New Bull and the New Bull marketing campaigns.
Cheers!
Best websites for tracking portfolios? the problem i have with fidelity and most other sites i've tried is that they don't let you sort your holdings by % amount of the total portfolio. seems very basic and i've complained about it at fidelity for years, to no effect.
Money Market Funds @msf- thanks again. Actually, I had found that page and downloaded the pdf file. After your link reference, I did so a number of times and was getting really frustrated because there was NO reference to NAV.
FINALLY I noticed that the script blocker on this computer's browser (a Firefox-based variant optimized for these old Apple G5's) was indicating that
some resource had been blocked. When I overrode that the section with the NAV info appeared as if by magic. I'll certainly keep an eye on that info.
We actually have a couple of mac Mini's which are much faster and able to handle browsing with no problems, but I generally use the old G5 because it can handle the ancient (Apple OS 9) financial SS which I've been using for some 20
years. It has certain macro functionality which can't be replicated in current spreadsheets, and the financial SS uses a fair number of those automated macro computing routines. All I have to do is copy the daily M* portfolio report, paste it into the SS, push a couple of buttons, and it's all done... everything computed and updated, with graphs showing complete results quarter-by-quarter, and a page showing each fund's performance, both since the previous entry session and YTD.
The SS is certainly dated- Apple had this SS when MS was still using DOS. Old, but good. Like my wife. :)