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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    My son just opened TRP acct. Everything went smoothly until attempting to link his credit union acct with TRP. Sorry, we are unable.... Feces.
    He STILL refuses to get a credit card. Prefers cash and debit card. Dunno if that factors in.

    An entire generation has been conditioned to think debit cards = credit cards. I would never use a debit card for everyday purchases primarily since the consumer protections are not as strong as they are on credit cards.
    People forget that if you responsibily pay your credit card bills off every month, it's no different than using a debit card (from our perspective) ... but that means banks are paying more for interchange fees and consumer protections, plus they're not making $$ from you on interest or potential overdraft fees and stores hate paying banks to accept credit cards. So it's no wonder why banks (and stores) prefer people use debit v credit.
    I have a CC and debit card. Here's something I read online years ago, that I never thought of, and why I NEVER use my debit card for online purchases:
    When using a CC, if there's some problem -- no matter who's at fault -- you have plenty of time to dispute it, and you don't have to pay it until it's settled.
    With a debit card the purchase comes out of your bank account immediately. If there's some problem with the purchase and even if it's in your favor, you have to get the money BACK from the vendor -- which may or may not be a PITA.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    My son just opened TRP acct. Everything went smoothly until attempting to link his credit union acct with TRP.
    Was he trying to link his CU account to TRP (i.e. have the TRP account recognize the CU account), or was he trying to link TRP to his CU account (i.e. have his CU recognize the TRP account)?
    While I haven't tried linking accounts at TRP in many years, I do know that at Vanguard you generally cannot link Vanguard accounts to outside institutions. The one exception is Vanguard Cash Plus, that's specifically designed for moving cash.
    Even with that account (from VG): "***Some third-party institutions may not accept the Cash Plus Account routing number for transactions. If you have any issues using the routing number on a third-party website, contact the provider." I've had that problem, though Fidelity (the institution I was trying to link to) handled it manually.
    TRP may be similar.
  • Ransomware attack on Patelco Credit Union
    Patelco CU has been in the news for a while - check X/Twitter.
    There have been previous posts on data breaches - MOVEit data transfer, Inforsys/MacCamish, etc.
    A typical deal offered is 2-3 years of credit monitoring by one of the credit agencies or 3rd parties like Kroll.
    The biggest breach of all may be the NPD - National Public Data breach that will affect almost everybody. NPD is a national database used for background checks & fraud prevention and it most likely has your data too.
  • Ransomware attack on Patelco Credit Union
    No, not that particular one. I was at a physical rehab hosp 3 years ago. Scumbag criminal pig hackers breached the files. I was offered ONE year protection with IDX out of Portland. There have not been any Alerts. Hackers: The slimiest of criminal creatures. I'll stop here before it gets obscene. I'd say it's definitely worth signing-up for the protection.
  • Ransomware attack on Patelco Credit Union
    Just as we were extolling the services of credit unions, I received an email today informing me (see the quoted text below) that my information was compromised. I closed the account a couple of years ago and that was the last of the small financial institution relationship I had.
    "What Information Was Involved?
    The information in the accessed databases included first and last name with Social Security number, Driver’s License number, date of birth, and/or email address. Not every data element was present for every individual."
    That is an extensive breach which makes me think their data segregation was not proper.
    "[W]e contained the threat by proactively disabling all unauthorized access to our network, restoring all data, and immediately commencing a prompt and thorough investigation. We also notified law enforcement. As part of our investigation, we worked very closely with external cybersecurity professionals experienced in handling these types of incidents. The investigation revealed that an unauthorized party gained access to our network on May 23, 2024, leading to access to the databases on June 29, 2024. Following the investigation and a thorough review of the data involved, we confirmed on August 14, 2024, that the accessed databases contained your personal information."
    Patelco does not say if they paid the attackers but they say they restored all the data. I think in most cases the Ransomware attackers delete the information accessed if they are paid. How can I find out if they paid the Ransomware attackers?
    "What You Can Do
    To help protect your information, we are offering a complimentary two-year membership of Experian IdentityWorksSM Credit 3B. This product helps detect possible misuse of your personal information and provides you with identity protection services focused on immediate identification and resolution of identity theft."
    I already have credit frozen at all three credit unions (Experian calls it "security freeze"). Experian had said that they send you an alert every time someone tries to access your credit file. I recently opened a B0A account and evidently BoA checks your credit file but I have not received any alert.
    Does anyone have experience with "Experian IdentityWorksSM Credit 3B"? Any negatives in signing up for this service?
    Thanks.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Well, we also started investing in our early 30's. If he's persistent he should be fine in 30 or 40 years. As John Templeton said: "The power of compounding..."
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    I thought there are websites that give you odds to wager. (I used to check a site for this information four years ago.) After the market close each day someone can post the change in closing price and change in odds to wager to see if there is any correlations.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts

    Watch a movie like
    Network. It's clunky to watch these days, but yeah, people were "mad as hell" about a lot of things, including inflation.
    Growing up through that era is the main reason I'm not convinced we're out of the woods yet.
    Thanks. That makes sense. The tricks our minds play! 40-50 years is too soon for a different reaction to similar events.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Bought a small slug of FLO - a small cap baked foods distributor. Have followed it for years. Has gone nowhere. Please don’t ask me why I bought it (but they do make delicious bread). Also - opened very small positions in PSQ (1 X inverse QQQ) and SDS (2 X inverse S&P). Together worth about the cost of a first class R/T ticket to LGA. Will trickle more in if the hoot continues.
  • Dave Giroux Explains TCAF's Portfolio Construction
    Rforno, I believe the software companies that will win the AI race are not household names yet. As viewed from a % gain perspective over the next 15 years.
    Agreed. But I'll bet most of 'em will get snapped up by the tech companies that *are* household names ... I always keep my ears pinned for interesting AI opportunities, but don't plan on doing a deep-dive to try and find them.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    "I didn’t sense as much angst among the public back then over rising prices as today. ... I think it came on gradually over many years and people got used to it. They say if you put a frog in a pot of cold water and heat it up to a boil slowly the frog will die of the heat rather than jump out."
    Inflation is expressed in annual change of price. If inflation goes up from 17% in one year to18% inflation the next year, people will know they are paying 18% more in price than what they paid the previous year. Not sure how people can get used to it.
    It is possible your memory is kind to previous generations or the current populations are more whiny - you have to figure that out for yourself.
    Watch a movie like Network. It's clunky to watch these days, but yeah, people were "mad as hell" about a lot of things, including inflation.
    Growing up through that era is the main reason I'm not convinced we're out of the woods yet.
  • Dave Giroux Explains TCAF's Portfolio Construction
    Rforno, I believe the software companies that will win the AI race are not household names yet. As viewed from a % gain perspective over the next 15 years.
  • New Morningstar Site in Late-August
    I’ve been a regular M* user for 25 years, although I’ve never paid for it. I mainly use it now to track various funds and portfolios. However, portfolio view no longer works for me. M* converted all of my portfolios into watchlists. No big deal, except it defaults to the “wrong “ watchlist every time I open the app now. The watchlist I primarily follow tracks a group of ETFs that approximates my primary investment portfolio. It is a simple way to track my investments at any given time. M* has essentially ruined that simple utility for me, so I am using their app less and less.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    - For income, stability, safety the short to intermediate part of the curve (1-5 years) is easier to ride. Much less volatile. Not a lot of difference now in rates.
    -There may be reasons to go further out if you believe rates will be lower than. Plain vanilla bonds might work better however, than a fund.
    - I sometimes use longer term bond funds as a volatility hedge - but only the highest quality ones. Depends on a lot of factors like how volatile your portfolio is, what current interest rates are, how much growth you are willing to exchange for the reduction in volatility.
    - I am surprised by the extent WEA has served to dampen equity volatility on down days. Might just be freakish exception. Have only owned it a couple months.
    - I have my eyes on JMBS - mortgage backed bonds. High quality. Actively managed. Reasonable fees. It does tend to rally on big equity down days. But the flip side that it can fall quite a bit on solid equity days - much more than a short term bond fund typically does. Expected growth is low unless we enter another 2008 during which only the highest credit quality bonds held up.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    reduced rates: gummint can spend less buying back its behemoth debt, right? A dollar that's TOO strong vs. other currencies would be a problem. But we are a world away from THAT right now. Universal tariffs on imports is a yucky idea. Ever-expanding gummint spending gets us nowhere in reducing the debt-beast. Facilitating and streamlining LEGAL immigration, and therefore expanding the pool of labor, would be a great thing. Need more Immigration and Customs workers. Is that stuff being farmed out to the private sector, like TSA?
    Hank's got it. And msf offers that intermediate term bond funds are as far out on the curve as seems prudent to him.
    PRSNX. 4.46 years (global, USD hedged.)
    WCPNX 5.6 years
    DODIX 6.22 years. Stretching things, eh?
    DLFNX. 5.95 years
    I own none of them--- yet. I'm thinking that when rates go down, my junky stuff will throw a party in the streets. Eh?
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Apologies @bee. Will stop screwing around. Preparing for Rate Cuts
    - Well, the conventional wisdom is to lengthen out maturity bit. If I wanted to put a lot of $$ into bonds I’d aim for around 3 years maturity. Farther out is a gamble if inflation reignites.
    - Two short term ETFs: I use LSST for a short term bond fund. There are lower fee options if that’s critical to you. On my radar is TDTT which adds an inflation-protection component - also about 3 years maturity. Very low fees.
    - For more conservative folks an ultra-short might get you a bit extra as rates fall. TBUX looks excellent in that category.
    - I’d say keep your inflation hedges up. Lower rates may eventually push it higher.
    - There’s an old expression: “Buy the rumor. Sell the news”. The presumption is that stocks will go even higher if the Fed cuts rates. Maybe yes. Maybe no.
    - The financial world may look much different following the November election. Enjoy the fun for now. Hope it lasts a couple more months. But don’t get too giddy.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    @Hank. I agree that people today seem way more bent out of shape over what is sort of mild and shorted lived compared to the old days. And inflation is what you make of it too. We bought an old boat, sailed to the sea of Cortez and lived on a small part of the interest our money market account was paying. After three years we had more than when we left. Hank. La Paz, was sure different than the northern suburbs of Detroit where I grew up.
  • Submitting CFPB complaints
    I filed an SEC complaint a couple of years ago when I sold a mutual fund at one NAV stated by Schwab and then days later the fund company lowered the price I recieved
    The paperwork was not much. I won and got about $500 back
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    Seems like a good time to build a replicating portfolio for LCORX. Devo describes the process at this dinky linky.
    Portfolio Visualizer gives us ten free years of data, and over that period of time LCORX shows a beta of .49. So we're going to test LCORX against a portfolio that is 51% cash and 49% SPY--I think that's the right breakdown.
    And here are the results: YADL (yet another dinky linky.)
    To get the betas to match over time I had to adjust the breakdown to 50/50/ And here is the result for that.
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    Thanks. No offense taken @WABC. Yours was a good question. Perhaps better put as: “What are the relative risks / rewards of Tactical Allocation approaches vs Options Based approaches? What could go wrong with either?”
    LCORX seems more “old school” to me. I understand what it means to sell a stock short or to go long. And, in years past I’d “jigger” my relative weightings up and down (ie stocks, bonds, metals) to conform to whatever market view I held. Options trading is harder for me to fully understand. Not sure that at my age I need or want to get “up-to-speed” on this type of approach.
    I hope no one has expressed disdain for another’s investment choices. Sorry if that has occurred. As I see it ….. It’s their money. They worked hard for it. If the investment fails, they are the one who suffers the loss - not me.
    Regards