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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • "Beam" Legitimate or too good to be true" scam?
    Here's a link to the Forbes article. Hard to believe this type of business model will succeed, and they share very little about the business model...all very vague and feel good.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurengensler/2017/09/18/high-yield-online-savings-account-beam/#680354443531
  • Buy-Sell-Ponder, anticipating April, 2018
    Hello,
    Last week Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 155 indicating the the S&P 500 Index was undervalued. Not much has changed as this week as it finished at 154. However, there was a big move in the US 10 YR Treasury which has moved over the past four weeks from a yield of 2.74% to 2.96%. For me to be a buyer in equities I'll need to see a reading of around 160 on the barometer's scale and perhaps a little higher. I'm thinking the reason for rise in yield is due to our Govenment's spending was greater than its tax receipts. Thus the need to print money which is inflationary.
    Some of the things that performed well, for me, last week were my large cap growth funds, my commodity strategy fund and my regional bank fund pick. In addition, my convertible securities fund was up about 0.50%.
    Wishing all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Barry Ritholtz: Billionaire Bezos And The Warehouse Workers
    FYI: We have just learned that the median salary of employees at Amazon.com Inc. is $28,446, excluding its chief executive officer and founder, Jeff Bezos. That pitiful number raises an intriguing question: Is Amazon a high-paying tech company or a low-wage retailer?
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-04-20/amazon-bezos-net-worth-may-be-100-billion-times-that-of-workers
    Amazon Subscribers Worldwide:
    http://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Screen-Shot-2018-04-20-at-12.53.17-PM.png
  • IOFIX on Friday. Very lousey day, but...
    PDI carries 6.5% premium these days. I've dabbled just once in CEFs. I'd rather find one selling at a discount. Monthly pay-outs look good, though.
  • "Beam" Legitimate or too good to be true" scam?
    It's been covered by Forbes and by ValuePenguin, so in that sense at least it seems real.
    It's probably fine as far as it goes, but I'm not enticed by "engagement" bonuses (the more you do on the app, the higher the yield). It's hard to see how a company serving as a middleman is going to compete with online only banks in the long run. Run ads, like websites? Or like that company (forgot its name) that created free ATMs - you just had to watch an ad before getting your no fee cash.
    There might be a small window where your money is not insured - if Beam handles the money in transit, rather than simply "introducing" your bank to its partner bank. It's not clear how they're processing transfers; they don't seem to say explicitly that it's by ACH, though the 1-2 day wait is a good clue.
    I'm not fond of hype, and Beam seems to have more than its fair share. It says that "Beam is a mobile bank account that pays 200x more than your average savings account" (I think it means 200x as much). But as noted by Forbes, according to the FDIC the average savings account paid 0.06% back in September (surely more now). 200x, 67x, either way they're meaningless numbers.
    It tries to impress with jargon: "It is a Demand Deposit Account (DDA) in technical terms." Yes, but it could have said checking account. See, e.g. CFPB's page: "A demand deposit account is just a different term for a checking account." But then again, perhaps not, since it doesn't offer checking.
    I had to dig to find the name of the bank partner. It's there in the blog, but not to be found in the Q&A on the home page. There you find simply that it's partnering with an unnamed FDIC-insured bank.
    ValuePenguin says that in beta, you'll be limited to $15K. If you're okay with the games and the modest limit, you might also consider rewards checking accounts. They typically require you to make a certain number of debit purchases a month, and maybe some other stuff, but will give similar yields.
    Since I can get 1.6% - 1.8% at online banks without any games, without caps, without a smartphone, without "engaging", I'll stick with that. YMMV.
  • Perhaps you'll have a weekly winner somewhere in the rubble.
    @catch22: about 50% of my holdings were up, rest down, but the ones that were up, maybe you could buy a cup of coffee with them all together :)
  • Understanding MFO Risk Numbers
    Thank guys. As usual, bee is pointing the way. The MAXDD since inception for GTSOX is -11.2, which occurred 9/2011. Our premium site computes risk and performance metrics for 21 display periods, including "Life" or since inception (back to 1/1960, as applicable). Most of the main site search tools only have metrics for 1, 3, 5, 10 and 20 year periods. So, in the case of GTSOX, the 5-year period is longest shown, and the MAXDD over that period is more like -6%.
    Here's link to screenshot of full risk/return profile for GTSOX.
    The risk and performance metrics are computed from total monthly returns.
    We are about to go live with a much expanded database, thanks to a new global feed from Lipper. Ratings will include CEFs, holdings data, and much more.
    Hope that helps.
  • Understanding MFO Risk Numbers
    From the Portfolio Visualizer website (PV website), I created this graphic of GTSOX with its MAXDD highlighted:
    image
    Over a shorter timeframe (2014-2018): it appears that (-6.1%) MaxDD is correct:
    image
  • How Marty Whitman Beat The Market
    FYI: hird Avenue's Martin Whitman performed the astonishing feat of beating the stock market by a wide margin over at least twenty years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-whitman-won-1524154702
    http://www.cetusnews.com/business/cetusnews?part=SJs_ErU2G
  • Value Funds vs. Growth Funds vs Bonds - No Longer True?
    I also can't remember ever using their trading platform. Let me know if you use it and what you think of it.
    Sorry @CathyG, didn't notice this comment before. I've traded stocks, etf's and mutual funds on Schwab's platform and find it very easy. Never had a problem, FWIW. Buy/sell fees for stocks and ETFs I think are some of the lowest in the business, $4.95 /transaction, and some ETFs have no cost at all. I only buy NTF mutual funds (no transaction fees). Kind of what you said about loads, there is always another fund as good or better, w/o a fee.
  • Value Funds vs. Growth Funds vs Bonds - No Longer True?
    Haven't had a chance to read through all the responses, but if you are looking into global allocation funds, my suggestion is to have a look at First Eagle SGENX . It fits well with my risk profile with consistent performance and low downside. It is available no load with many brokers including Schwab and Fidelity. You do have to assess yourself the quality of their team as managers can leave. That's why I usually look at funds with >15 years (preferably >20) of experience, low portfolio turnover, for a core position.
  • Consumer-Staples Stocks Tumble, On Track For Worst Session In Two Months
    Sold out of FDFAX in my Roth ira a few months ago;stunning underperformance for a Fidelity fund. VCSAX VDC RYCIX XLP all better choices for this industry sector. Redeployed sale assets into AUENX which until recently had a $2500 minimum for retirement accounts.
  • Consumer-Staples Stocks Tumble, On Track For Worst Session In Two Months
    FYI: Consumer-staples stocks sank on Thursday, putting it on track for its biggest decline in more than two months. The sector XLP, -2.55% lost 2.6%, its biggest one-day percentage drop since Feb. 5.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-staples-stocks-tumble-on-track-for-worst-session-in-two-months-2018-04-19/print
    Sector Tracker XLP
    http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
  • Understanding MFO Risk Numbers
    I've been using MaxDD and Ulcer Index frequently in making decisions to buy funds. The reason is I really want to hold them for long time and don't want to be "stopped out" when fund hits a bad patch.
    However, I've been taking things at face value and something not adding up. Maybe I'm doing something wrong. Take GTSOX for instance. I have waited to buy this for a long time. When it corrected a bit with the market I observed it. It tanked much more than the MaxDD number. Now I don't know how frequently MFO data gets updated, but let's leave that aside for a minute.
    The fund has now recovered nicely. BUT, I have a question. Currently the MaxDD number in the Risk profile says -6.1% and this occurred 2015-9. A cursory examination of the GTSOX chart on stockcharts suggests this number should be higher - from over 10.6 to under 9.7. Moreover, I see another drop down 2016-3 not reflected in MFO tables which looks like from over 10.8 to under 9.7, almost 9.6, i.e. an even larger drop.
    Can someone explain what I'm doing/seeing wrong?
    http://schrts.co/wbPujQ
  • OMG, the Catch household go'in to be without bonds by week end.....perhaps
    Nothing you don’t already know but a few bond funds in the bank loan and non agency rmbs categories are on pace for 5% to 6% returns this year. Of course how that actually plays out is snyone’s guess. On the bright side, some of Fidelity’s money market funds are closing in on 2% now yielding over 1.90%
  • OMG, the Catch household go'in to be without bonds by week end.....perhaps
    Our house has not been without some form of bonds for 20 years.....well, I really don't recall.
    The existing bond exposure has been FCBFX of recent. The graphic link below indicates the recent (1 year) of this holding. Corporate bonds have held fairly well for the near term past, but are having a difficult travel recently. Investment grade corporate bonds had a big face slap today, after having a slight recovery for a few days. February 14 found the relative strength move below 30 and recover some. But, one can see the path of the 50 and 100 day relative to the 200 day moving average. I suspect I'll find about a -2.4% YTD including today.
    If we sell FCBFX tomorrow to cash, we'll be at 55% cash, 45% equity; and of this equity percentage being technology, healthcare and global sm/mid cap. The cash? Don't know where it will travel at this time.
    http://schrts.co/8Kc4dr
    Oh, well.....still interesting times.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • In a rising interest rate environment what asset classes & funds might do well?
    "do you believe Brent Crude is nearing $73"
    @hank- Based on the fast-rising numbers on the gasoline pumps, I have no problem at all believing that. Got to hand it to OPEC & Russia- they've done it again. Venezuela being all but offline, and slowdown in US fracking output isn't helping either. Bastards. I'm guessing stabilization at $75/$80 bbl.
    With respect to the slowdown in fracking output, an article in the WSJ suggests that "Pipeline capacity is emerging as a problem. Oil is starting to back up in West Texas and has recently sold at a $6 to $9 discount to crude prices elsewhere in the U.S. That is a warning sign that some oil might have to travel by more expensive ways like trucks to market and that producers could be forced to take drastic measures like halt drilling.".
    Going to be interesting to see how long this takes to impact inflation and consumer spending, particularly on the now (all but) mandatory extra large SUVs and pick-ups.
  • Marty Whitman passes away at 93
    Same. I sold TAVIX as soon as manager left. Marty didn't manage TAVIX though. I forget the name of the guy. He also started his own funds. Again, forget the name. Maybe worth a look if anyone can remember.
    Amit Wadhwaney.
    From 2016:
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-global-value-investor-steps-back-into-the-fray-1457157530
    Current:
    http://moeruscap.com/about-us/
    Performance and snapshot:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/mownx/quote.html
    No stars from Morningstar, but a bronze decoration?
    World small/mid-stock category.
    MOWNX will not see any of my own money.
  • In a rising interest rate environment what asset classes & funds might do well?
    @Old_Skeet,
    Good timing on your choice of topics ... Commodities are having their best day in a long time. Industrial metals hot. Gold has punched through $1350 after flirting with it for a couple months. And, do you believe Brent Crude is nearing $73?
    Now that I’ve successfully jinxed the markets, look for all this stuff to finish lower by day’s end.
  • In a rising interest rate environment what asset classes & funds might do well?
    Hi @Catch22,
    Thank you for the link ... short read on interest rates.
    It appears that the tighenting of the yield cure presently is having an effect on most bank stock valuations as spreads narrow. If things go as anticipated (by the Fed) the long end of the yield cure should, in time, move upward with the short end as the FOMC raises interest rates at a measured pace. If not then things will generally not go well for us and perhaps a recession will be forthcoming. Currently, this has thrown cold water on my option three (bank stocks). However, I see option one (convertibles) continue upward as well as my option two (commodities). The Fed is having to print money to fund the government since it is short on tax receipts. This drives down the value of the dollar making the commodity play attractive, by my thinking. And, for convertibles, this is a soft play on the rising stock market. Generally, convertibles have a bond like floor and an equity like ceiling.
    It will be interesting, for me, to see how my three interest rate options plays pan out as we move through the year. Currrently, the one I am most concerned about is bank stocks. If things materialize as the article states and as the Fed anticipates then bank stocks should come around as the long end of the yield curve rise and the yield spread increases.
    If there is one thing I have learned in investing, through the years, everything does not work as planned. With this, I remain flexabile to make adjustments as I feel warranted. Since, the April 11th market close Old_Skeet's market barometer has moved from a reading of 158 indicating the S&P 500 Index was undervalued to the 17th close with a reading of 152 indicating the Index is now at fair value. We still have a ways to go on the barometer's scale to get to overvalued ... but, the way the market has moved upward the past few days it might not take long to get there.
    Thanks again for making post.
    Old_Skeet