"do you believe Brent Crude is nearing $73"
@hank- Based on the fast-rising numbers on the gasoline pumps, I have no problem at all believing that. Got to hand it to OPEC & Russia- they've done it again. Venezuela being all but offline, and slowdown in US fracking output isn't helping either. Bastards. I'm guessing stabilization at $75/$80 bbl.
With respect to the slowdown in fracking output, an article in the WSJ suggests that "Pipeline capacity is emerging as a problem. Oil is starting to back up in West Texas and has recently sold at a $6 to $9 discount to crude prices elsewhere in the U.S. That is a warning sign that some oil might have to travel by more expensive ways like trucks to market and that producers could be forced to take drastic measures like halt drilling.".
Going to be interesting to see how long this takes to impact inflation and consumer spending, particularly on the now (all but) mandatory extra large SUVs and pick-ups.

Same. I sold TAVIX as soon as manager left. Marty didn't manage TAVIX though. I forget the name of the guy. He also started his own funds. Again, forget the name. Maybe worth a look if anyone can remember.

Amit Wadhwaney.
From 2016:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-global-value-investor-steps-back-into-the-fray-1457157530
Current:
http://moeruscap.com/about-us/
Performance and snapshot:
http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/mownx/quote.html
No stars from Morningstar, but a bronze decoration?
World small/mid-stock category.
MOWNX will not see any of my own money.

@Old_Skeet,
Good timing on your choice of topics ... Commodities are having their best day in a long time. Industrial metals hot. Gold has punched through $1350 after flirting with it for a couple months. And, do you believe Brent Crude is nearing $73?
Now that I’ve successfully jinxed the markets, look for all this stuff to finish lower by day’s end.

Hi @Catch22,
Thank you for the link ... short read on interest rates.
It appears that the tighenting of the yield cure presently is having an effect on most bank stock valuations as spreads narrow. If things go as anticipated (by the Fed) the long end of the yield cure should, in time, move upward with the short end as the FOMC raises interest rates at a measured pace. If not then things will generally not go well for us and perhaps a recession will be forthcoming. Currently, this has thrown cold water on my option three (bank stocks). However, I see option one (convertibles) continue upward as well as my option two (commodities). The Fed is having to print money to fund the government since it is short on tax receipts. This drives down the value of the dollar making the commodity play attractive, by my thinking. And, for convertibles, this is a soft play on the rising stock market. Generally, convertibles have a bond like floor and an equity like ceiling.
It will be interesting, for me, to see how my three interest rate options plays pan out as we move through the year. Currrently, the one I am most concerned about is bank stocks. If things materialize as the article states and as the Fed anticipates then bank stocks should come around as the long end of the yield curve rise and the yield spread increases.
If there is one thing I have learned in investing, through the years, everything does not work as planned. With this, I remain flexabile to make adjustments as I feel warranted. Since, the April 11th market close Old_Skeet's market barometer has moved from a reading of 158 indicating the S&P 500 Index was undervalued to the 17th close with a reading of 152 indicating the Index is now at fair value. We still have a ways to go on the barometer's scale to get to overvalued ... but, the way the market has moved upward the past few days it might not take long to get there.
Thanks again for making post.
Old_Skeet

I think you're talking about Amit Wadhwaney, who "retired" in 2014 and then started Moerus Capital Management in 2015. They have one fund, Moerus Worldwide Value, that hasn't done particularly well and hasn't gathered more than $55 MM in assets in its first few years but it does get a M* rating of Bronze.

BTW - The cost of a phone booth seems to have skyrocketed recently! :) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/03/14/scott-pruitts-25000-soundproof-phone-booth-it-actually-cost-more-like-43000/
https://www.wouldyoubelieve.com/graphics/cone_title.gif
What? Say that again, Chief? What?
I understand U.S. Grant's admin. was dogged by corruption and craziness. No phone booths back then, I guess. Is the Trumpster going to outdo them ALL? Probably already.

So basically we should be 100% invested in Emerging Markets for a 2% return???
WTF not simply buy a CD ladder?
Why does GMO not recommend that? I think we can lock in that rate now.

@Old_Skeet
A short read about rates........from to be in June, NY FED Williams
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-17/fed-s-williams-says-inverted-yield-curve-powerful-recession-sign
10-30 year narrowed a bit more today to .18 basis points 2.82/3.00 yield

FYI: Martin J. Whitman, who made “safe and cheap” a value-investing mantra during more than two decades managing the Third Avenue Value Fund, has died. He was 93.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-17/martin-j-whitman-third-avenue-management-founder-dies-at-93

FYI: Long-term bull Jeremy Siegel, who correctly predicted 2017's historic rally, isn't convinced strong earnings will push stocks back into record territory.
The Wharton finance professor sees anemic returns compared with last year.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/17/this-market-is-going-to-struggle-whartons-jeremy-siegel-warns.html?__source=yahoo|finance|headline|story|&par=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

FYI: eremy Grantham isn’t shaking his reputation as a perma-Bear.
His firm, Boston-based GMO, is out with its latest seven-year outlook and it doesn’t make for happy reading. GMO expects the annualized, inflation-adjusted return for U.S. stocks to be negative 4.2 percent over the period. U.S. bonds are forecast to lose 0.5 percent a year while emerging-market stocks, long a GMO favorite, are expected to climb 1.9 percent annually.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/jeremy-grantham-forecasts-rough-seven-years-for-equities--bonds-38168.html?print

Here’s the latest stats from the Bureau of Labor statistics. But I don’t know anyone that shops much who believes the govt. figures. Officially: CPI (excluding food and energy) +2.4% year-over-year. Keep in mind that price increases compound over a period of years. So, 2.4% a year for 3 years isn’t 7.2% - but something higher. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
Some would say to stick with a good low cost equity fund. That’s your best inflation hedge. However, if you’re really worried and don’t mind the potential underperformance,T. Rowe Price bills it’s long established PRNEX as an inflation hedge - but they caution that’s it’s highly cyclical and likely to underperform during economic downturns / recessions.
About 9% of my Core portfolio is considered “inflation hedge”. That portion consists of 4 funds which seem to work well together to even-out the swings. Generally, at least one of the 4 will have an “up day” when the others decline. Other than Prices’s PRAFX (the most diversified), I won’t bother to name them. The other 3 consist of a gold fund, an infrastructure fund and a real estate fund. A similar amount is held in a global bond fund - the thinking being that if the dollar weakens, as it is apt to do during inflationary periods, foreign bonds should outperform domestic. (But if the foreign/global bond fund is “hedged” against currency risk, its outperformance would be less.)
-
BTW - The cost of a phone booth seems to have skyrocketed recently! :) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/03/14/scott-pruitts-25000-soundproof-phone-booth-it-actually-cost-more-like-43000/

Interest rates going up? I'm not convinced, yet. Well, the short end of gov't. stuff has gone up; but they're pushed by the Fed. The basis spread between the 10 and 30 year continues to contract, as well as other similar measurements used by the financial world (chart 2 below).
The questions: If the economy is doing so well, why are rates not naturally higher? Is borrowing demand full up at the corporate level? Shouldn't rates be at least 1% higher, but that there remains so much demand for U.S. gov't. issues that the rates remain low? Is the Fed. attempting to gain some breathing room to lower rates in the future, if there are problems in the financial system? Higher rates would likely cause some problems with lending for mortgages and auto loans, etc., yes? I'm trying to imagine how many folks have no idea of what loan rates where 10 years ago. How long will it take to wean many off of the "low rate tit"?
Well, you get my drift.
I have more questions than answers and they are only based upon my non-economic degree.
Our house,at this time, does not intend to purposefully engage in investments that may benefit from interest rate increases.
K. I'm out of thinking juice for this morning.
Take care,
Catch
Chart 1, May, 2006-May, 2010.......July 9, 2007 = yields packed together, the below list is + or - a few basis points at the worse; still packed tight
---30 yr yield = 5.10%
---10 yr yield = 5.03%
--- 5 yr yield = 4.93%
--- 1 yr yield = 5.03%
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$UST30Y,$UST10Y,$UST5Y,$UST1Y&l=1843&r=2830&O=011000
Chart 2, Yield overview Jan., 1999-April 16, 2018
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$UST30Y,$UST10Y,$UST5Y,$UST1Y&p=6&O=011000
Yields as of April 16, 2018
---30 yr yield = 3.03%
---10 yr yield = 2.83%
--- 5 yr yield = 2.69%
--- 1 yr yield = 2.12%

@Numbers Gal: FYI:
Regards,
Ted :)
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/40125/13-active-fund-managers-agree-to-reveal-closet-indexing/p1

"...The attorney general’s offices surveyed 14 major U.S. mutual fund firms and found that 13 did not disclose the active share metric to investors, even though all of them disclosed it to some extent to institutional investors.
The lack of equal access “is an information gap that hinders retail investors’ ability to fully analyze the potential value proposition of an actively managed equity fund,” the attorney general’s office said in a report, released Thursday....The mutual fund firms that have agreed to publish active share information under the agreement with New York are: AllianceBernstein LP; BlackRock Inc.; The Dreyfus Corp.; The Capital Group Companies Inc. (American Funds); Columbia Management Investment Advisors LLC; Eaton Vance Management; Goldman Sachs Asset Management L.P.; JP Morgan Chase & Co.; OppenheimerFunds Inc.; Nuveen LLC; T. Rowe Price Associates Inc.; USAA Asset Management Co.; and The Vanguard Group Inc." Most of the firms that have agreed to post the information beginning in spring 2018, the attorney general’s office said.https://fa-mag.com/news/n-y--attorney-general-forces-fund-groups-to-disclose-active-share-38020.html?section=121

In a rising interest rate environment what asset classes and funds might do well?
I'm going with these three. 1) Convertibles ... my holding is FISCX (ytd +5.66%). 2) Commodities ... my holding is PCLAX (ytd+5.20%). 3) Bank Stocks ... my pick is FRBAX (ytd+3.00%).
What might your three holdings and/or picks be (asset class along with fund pick)? Who will take gold & precious metals? How about commodity producers? Miners? Energy? Natural Resources? Etc?

I know a few people who are paying 1% - some are getting a good amount of help with their financial situations (i.e. are getting reasonable value for their money), some are getting investment help and some long term planning (IMHO not in itself worth the 1%, but these people also seem to derive value from the personal handholding).
If, as it sounds here, all you're looking for is investment selection and management, I agree with Lewis that something like Vanguard Personal Advisors (a hybrid robo/human offering) or a pure robo advisor would fit the bill.
Regarding PONAX and other bond funds: PONAX is NTF (no fee, no load) at many brokerages now. If you're investing at least $25K, it's worth paying a transaction fee to buy the cheaper PINIX shares, especially if you're looking to buy-and-hold. Vanguard has a $25K min, most other places require at least $100K.
Most people here seem to be enthusiastic about the fund. I'll be the wet blanket. The manager is excellent and I doubt over any long period of time the fund would be a poor choice. But it's focused on asset backed securities(ABS) - a few years ago on mortgages (a form of ABS), more recently on non-mortgage ABS. These have their own risks and rewards; the fact that they have done well does not mean they will continue to do so. See these columns:
http://www.morningstar.com/articles/834221/is-pimco-income-the-new-total-return.html (how PONAX did well with mortgages, but that market's risk/reward has worsened), and
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/39045-morningstar-heres-the-impact-of-rising-interest-rates-on-mortgage-backed-securities (unique risks in mortgage backed securities that may manifest with rising interest rates)
Non-mortgage ABS are yet again different from vanilla bonds. (See investment characteristics in this page.) So again, the behavior may not be what one expects.
Thus I agree again (at least partially) with Lewis that you might benefit from adding a more vanilla bond fund, something like a short to intermediate term corporate. (IMHO index funds are too heavily weighted toward lower yielding, though higher quality, Treasuries.)

This is very helpful and much appreciated. Bonds are new to me, and really want something I don't want to worry too much about. PONAX seems diverse, and has a positive track record for a good 10 years, and as the other poster mentioned, has not gotten as bad a hit as of late compared to other bond funds.
I think adding something more vanilla, like VBMFX, or one of Vanguard's corp/int'l funds could be a good idea as you suggested, but it might be wise to let rates settle first.
I also feel that you guys are right about the FA. Aside from my bond uncertainty, I'm generally happy with my AA so far, and don't think it's really necessary to give this guy a quarterly cut for making slight adjustments here and there.
Thanks again!

I've had regional bank fund JRBAX for about 18 months, and have vacillated back and forth on whether I have too many sector bets (health, tech, consumer staples, banking, medical devices) and each time I get close to thinking about reducing or selling , they seem to either rally or start to inch back up. I did sell my utilities, and of course they started to rally, but I was overweight in that sector anyway. As some of you know, I tend to take a barbell approach to my portfolio. Solid dividend growth, S + P 500 and E + I funds make up the largest part of portfolio, and sector funds and intl and emerging markets to fill in on the edges. Im 67% stocks, rest bond and cash, Been adding to emerging and global lately.
Think I will hold onto this fund and see what happens.

may this be so
https://www.vox.com/2018/4/10/17215440/deficits-rising-congressional-budget-office-ceo-debate