According to Schwab's 11-page
2015 global outlook, we can throw out everything we think we know about EMs, commodities, and a strong dollar. Excerpts:
"A strong dollar, weak commodity prices and solid emerging market stock performance ... can coexist in the environment we foresee for a few key reasons:
"There are now far more commodity consumers than producers among emerging market stocks. ... Nearly
50% of the value of the companies in the MSCI Emerging Market Index is now in the financials and technology sectors. ... By and large, emerging market companies are not the commodity producers they are often believed to be—or were in the past.
"The China-driven commodity boom that coincided with strong emerging market performance is ending ... as China refocuses its growth. The transformation of where growth is coming from in China has been dramatic. Resource-heavy State Owned Enterprises now represent only about 2
5% of China’s GDP. ... A testament to the decoupling of Chinese stock market performance from commodity prices is the fact that over the past three years ending November 2
5, 2014, commodity prices ... are flat to down while the Hang Seng Index of Chinese stocks is up about
50% ....
"Emerging market countries have made structural changes. Smaller trade and budget deficits, larger foreign currency reserves, debt denominated in local currencies, and flexible exchange rates are leaving these countries much less vulnerable to an extended rise in the dollar than they were in the past."