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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Nasdaq 100 plans special rebalance to curb dominance of magnificent seven
    From the EXPLAINER piece:
    A special rebalancing, which is part of Nasdaq 100's methodology to maintain compliance with a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission rule on fund diversification ...
    The special rebalancing may be conducted at any time if the aggregate weight of companies, each having more than 4.5% weight in the index, tops 48%
    This is to meet a 50% requirement: add together all holdings with weights over 5%, and they must total under 50% of the fund's assets. But this requirement is found in the Internal Revenue Code, not in an SEC fund diversification rule.
    From the SEC site:
    In addition to the diversification test under section 5 of the [1940 Investment Company] Act, many investment companies also seek to satisfy the Internal Revenue Code’s (“the Code”) diversification test to qualify as a regulated investment company (“RIC”).
    ...Funds generally elect to be treated as RICs under section 851 of the [Internal Revenue] Code in order to take advantage of pass-through tax treatment.
    https://www.sec.gov/files/staff-report-threshold-limits-diversified-funds.pdf
    Funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 index don't need to satisfy the SEC diversification rule because they declare themselves nondiversified.
    According to the NASDAQ 100 methodology, "a special rebalancing of the Index may be conducted at any time if it is determined necessary to maintain the integrity of the Index."
    Otherwise, the index is rebalanced at most quarterly. Each quarter a rebalancing is triggered if the index is close to violating the 50% rule, or close to violating a separate 25% rule (not more than 25% of a fund may be invested in a single security).
    Nasdaq 100 methodology (See Section 5.1)
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    100 shares more of BHB just bought.

    Any particular reason? Are you averaging down? Sorry, I don’t follow this particular stock.
    Personally, I’m down to just 2 stocks - both small speculative mid-cap plays. Prefer managed funds for the most part. Less risk.
    I’ve been consolidating all year. More committed today to a static hands-off approach and less to f*** around with stuff. Down from 18-20 holdings a year ago to 14 today - counting the core money market. I think it was the big sell-off in 2022 that prompted me to pick up a lot of different things that were temporarily depressed and do some gambling on individual stocks. Gets crazy. (And, I’d prefer not to re-live that year.)
    Unless Henny Penny has her day, BHB will be a long-term holding. The purchase was a consolidation, but not by much: I eliminated just two tiny ETF positions that were doing less than nothing for me. HYDB and SCHP. I exited them both after a tiny loss. So, after a few months of keeping tabs on them, I dumped them and threw the proceeds into BHB. .......So, that's 2 line-items eliminated. Consolidating.
    Our own @MikeM has noted that BHB has been following the Regional Bank ETF, KRE. I believe him. And that's ok. I want to grow my stake while the stock is depressed by -31% (according to M*.) The Market Cap on BHB is still just $371M. It's not in the same League as RF Regions at $17.5B. Or ZION at $4.5B. Or HBAN Huntington at $16B. (numbers from M*.). But I did not want to be competing in that league, anyhow. I'm more comfortable with "Crash Davis" and "Annie Savoy" and "Nuke LaLoosh" down in single-A Durham. (But these days, the Bulls have moved up in the world: AAA status.)
    The BHB dividend is up by just a bit: a product of its fallen share price, but the bank has raised the div. by just a couple of pennies, as well. Payout ratio is sustainable at 33.12......Currently, shares are selling for less than Book Price. VOLUME in the Markets today was a bit higher than the 65-day avg... P/E is still just 7.81. "Short" interest is just 0.81%....14 day Relative Strength: 47.5%. (source: Barchart.) ...Price to Sales is 2.34. (Does that apply to banks?)...Earnings Yield is rather higher than in previous years, at 13.06...Net Margin = 30.52%.
    I am VERY slowly but steadily growing the size of the brokerage account. Apart from an annual small chunk removed from the T-IRA each year in January, I'm letting that one just sit, to grow. ("Hands-off.") PRWCX is tonight back down to just below 39% of my total. I own 5 OEFs in the T-IRA. That's not TOO many irons in the fire. (Wife has a T-IRA with BRUFX, but it's only just over $10k.) There's a sweep account in the brokerage, but there's never much in there, apart from a period earlier in the year, when PRTXX yielded almost 5%. But for the long-term, I can do better deploying money outside of the Treasuries and Treasury futures.
    Why grow that taxable account? Taxes for us are simply not a worry. Wifey can "get at" the $$$ in the JOINT brokerage account without worrying about inherited IRA rules, when that time comes. So, why not? It puts her at ease. There are 5 single-stocks in taxable. I deliberately wanted to cover the waterfront with sector-investments, the best I could without managing so many that I might as well be running my own mutual fund:
    BHB regional banks.
    NHYDY aluminum, green energy, recycling.
    ET oil/gas midstream.
    JRSH clothing manufacturer. Absolutely getting crushed in 2023. Tiny holding.
    PSTL Real Estate.
    Other considerations: this is for heirs. I don't need it to live on. She's already fixed up nicely back in the home country. She won't stay here after I'm gone. She's not quite yet eligible for SS (40 quarters,) but I think she just doesn't care.
    Sorry, this is way more than you asked for. Just thinking "out loud," I guess.
  • Tech mania …
    I've never contributed to Wikipedia, so I haven't tried straightening out the page(s).
    It is possible to parse the original wording in a way that makes sense, so I would call what was written poor wording in part. That is, the index rose a lot (800% stated) from the start of 1995, and then declined by 740% of that original value.
    The numeric values, however, don't make sense no matter how one tries to interpret them. I thought perhaps the writer was conflating Nasdaq composite with Nasdaq 100, but the numbers didn't match the latter. Or perhaps a different, common error was involved - confusing multiplying by 8 (a seven-fold increase) with an 8-fold increase (up 800%).
    Regardless of the actual numbers, the broad point was correct: the stock market shot up and came (mostly) down to earth even faster. That's how I tend to read Wiki pages - usually okay in sweeping generalities, often questionable in details.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Hey Fred, how far out are you going with your CD selections?
    Max. of two years, dt, and only from large national banks (i.e., "too big to fail"). During that period I expect there to be a stock market correction and, perhaps, some additional opportunities in the equity market will present themselves. Hope springs eternal.
    Good luck,
    Fred
    Thanks Fred--I have several CDs maturing in the next 6 months, and if I can get CD rates at 5+%, I will likely buy new CDs with that money. 2024 is a big question mark for me, regarding future investing in CDs.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    As a retired and conservative investor, and as long as the Fed keeps raising interest rates, I am staying in risk-free MM's and CD's. In the future, I might be looking at bond OEF's like CBLDX, RCTIX and TSIIX, for example.
    But, in the meantime, I see no urgency to invest in bond funds, and since I don't need a lot more money, I prefer to err on the side of caution.
    Fred

    Hey Fred, how far out are you going with your CD selections?

    Max. of two years, dt, and only from large national banks (i.e., "too big to fail"). During that period I expect there to be a stock market correction and, perhaps, some additional opportunities in the equity market will present themselves. Hope springs eternal.
    Good luck,
    Fred
  • Bank of America to pay $250 million for illegal fees, fake accounts

    The following is a current NPR report:
    Bank of America, the nation's second largest bank, has been ordered to pay more than $100 million to customers for double charging insufficient fund fees, withholding reward bonuses and opening accounts without customers' knowledge or permission. The bank is also on the hook for an additional $150 million in penalties for the same violations.
    The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau announced Tuesday that an investigation found that Bank of America harmed hundreds of thousands of customers across multiple product lines over a period of several years through a series of illegal practices. As a result, Bank of America was ordered to pay over $100 million to customers and another $90 million in penalties. A separate $60 million fine has been ordered by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for violating laws around overdraft fees.
    CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a news release that Bank of America's double-dipping on fees, opening accounts without customer consent and withholding rewards "are illegal and undermine customer trust," practices he said the CFPB will put an end to across the banking system.
    Bank of America's "double-dipping scheme"
    According to the CFPB, Bank of America utilized a "double-dipping scheme" to "harvest junk fees" from customers. It did so by charging people $35 whenever they didn't have enough funds available, but repeatedly charged customers for the same transaction, which the CFPB said generated "substantial additional revenue".
    Chopra told NPR Business Correspondent David Gura, "Building a business model by double dipping on fees is simply not legal, and that's why we've sanctioned Bank of America and ordered them to pay back the customers they cheated."
    The OCC said it found that the bank charged "tens of millions of dollars" in fees in resubmitted transactions, in violation of Section 5 of the Federal Trade Commission Act, which prevents financial institutions from using unfair or deceptive acts and practices.
    "Overdraft programs should help, not harm, consumers," Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael J. Hsu said in a news release. "Today's action demonstrates the OCC's commitment to protecting consumers and promoting fairness and trust in banking. We expect banks to conduct their activities in compliance with all applicable laws and standards, and when they don't, we will act accordingly."
    Bank of America Senior Vice President of Media Relations Naomi R. Patton told NPR that the bank voluntarily reduced overdraft fees and eliminated "all non-sufficient fund fees" in the first half of 2022. She said the changes have resulted in a drop in revenue from these fees of over 90%. The bank also dropped the overdraft fee from $35 to $10 in May 2022.
    Withholding credit card cash and point rewards
    The CFPB said Bank of America targeted potential-customers by offering special cash and point rewards if they signed up for a credit card, a common signing bonus used by competing credit card companies. However, according to the CFPB, Bank of America illegally withheld those bonuses from tens of thousands of customers.
    Chopra said Bank of America has been ordered to follow through on those promises.
    "We know in the U.S. many people are really closely scrutinizing which credit card they sign up for based on rewards, whether it's cash, bonuses at enrollment, or airline points, or other proprietary point systems," Chopra said. "The fact that Bank of America advertised these signup bonuses and then did a bait and switch completely undermines the the fair market and consumer choice."
    Bank of America employees opened accounts without consumers' knowledge
    As far back as at least 2012, Bank of America employees illegally applied for and enrolled consumers for credit cards without their knowledge or permission to reach sales-based incentive goals and evaluation criteria, according to the CFPB. Employees illegally signed up customers by using or obtaining consumers' credit reports and completed applications without their permission, which resulted in unjust fees and negative impacts to customers' credit scores.
    "That's essentially taking over someone's identity and exploiting it financially, and it's totally improper," Chopra told NPR. "It's totally inexcusable. So, whether it is happening to just a handful to thousands or to millions, we find this extremely serious."
    Bank of America is a repeat offender
    This isn't the first time the bank has been penalized for conducting illegal practices. Bank of America shelled out $727 million to the CFPB in 2014 for illegally deceiving roughly 1.4 million customers through deceptive marketing products. The bank was also ordered to pay a $20 million civil money penalty for charging 1.9 million consumers for a credit monitoring and credit reporting services they never received, according to the CFPB.
    The bank was also slapped with two other penalties in 2022 totaling $235 million: a $10 million civil penalty for unlawfully processing out-of-state garnishments--removing customer funds for debts--against customer bank accounts; a $225 million fine for automatically and unlawfully freezing customer accounts with a fraud detection program during the COVID-19 pandemic.
    "Bank of America is a repeat offender. Being a household name that has been punished before didn't stop it from allegedly cheating customers out of tens of millions of dollars in fees and credit card rewards and opening up accounts without their authorization," U.S. Public Interest Research Groups Consumer Campaign Director Mike Litt said in a statement Tuesday. "The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's strong enforcement action shows why it makes a difference to have a federal agency monitoring the financial marketplace day in and day out."
    Comment: B of A must be trying to catch up with Wells Fargo in the "screw the customer" department.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    @Fred495 + 1. It seems as though risk free 5% is possibly the “ magic number “ for many conservative investors . Which leads me to ponder what is a win? For me I am starting to think in terms of dollars instead of an arbitrary per cent.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    As a retired and conservative investor, and as long as the Fed keeps raising interest rates, I am staying in risk-free MM's and CD's. In the future, I might be looking at bond OEF's like CBLDX, RCTIX and TSIIX, for example.
    But, in the meantime, I see no urgency to invest in bond funds, and since I don't need a lot more money, I prefer to err on the side of caution.
    Fred
    Hey Fred, how far out are you going with your CD selections?
  • CD Renewals
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/fed-seen-raising-rates-this-month-traders-less-sure-further-hike-2023-07-07/
    At least one reputable news source thinks that it is almost certain the Feds will raise rates in July, but less certain about a second hike. Most of the articles I have read thinks the Fed rates will be around 5.6% by the end of the calendar year.
  • Et Tu, Bank of America, US regulators fine Bank of America $250 million over junk fees, other.
    Come on folks, you all try'in to be a Wells Fargo??? Trust factor continues to go to hell.
    Article
  • Tech mania …
    If you gain 800% and then lose 740% of that gain, then you're still way below zero. Impossible.
    Starting with $N, you gain 800% ($8N), so you have $9N.
    You can't give back more than $9N or 112.5% (i.e. 9/8) of the $8N gain.
    740%? No way. Unless it is 740% of the starting amount in 1995. Then you gain 800% of the starting amount, give back 740% of the starting amount, and wind up with a net gain over nearly 8 years of 60% (800% - 740%).
    The Wiki Nasdaq composite page, as with the dot com bubble page, gives no citation for its purported 400% gain:
    Between 1995 and 2000, the peak of the dot-com bubble, the Nasdaq Composite stock market index rose 400%
    The intraday low for 1995 was hit on the second trading day, Jan 4, 1995 at 740.47. The intraday peak in 2000, as stated in the Wiki piece, was 5,132.52. According to my handy dandy calculator, that's 6.93 times 740.47, for a gain of 593%. That 400% figure isn't accurate even to a single digit.
    No citation, innumerate writers, and inconsistent pages. Don'tcha just love Wikipedia?
  • Tech mania …
    Related Wiki article has better explanations and that "On March 10, 2000, the index peaked at 5,132.52, but fell 78% from its peak by October 2002." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasdaq_Composite
    My guess is that the other summary article may have been trying to say that Nasdaq rose 800% and gave up 740% of THAT gain. It's still a poor way and the summary author may have missed the class on percentages.
    BTW, it was noted in Barron's that Nasdaq-100/QQQ YTD performance exceed all those in the 1990s, including the dot. com bubble.
  • the tyranny of downside math
    The SEC rules require CEFs to report the total ER including interest & leverage expenses as applicable to the common shares. This rule has been in effect since 1940s. The mutual funds/OEFs at the time pushed for this "penalty" for CEFs because they were concerned that some leveraged CEFs could always top the performance charts.
    Of course, the CEF industry didn't like this. It has remained tiny in AUM due to complexity, and now this ER burden. A compromise has evolved in that the CEFs can make alternate presentations along with the SEC required disclosure; but if only one is presented, then that must the SEC required ERs. A common way has been to separate out the portfolio management fees and say that is what should count to investors in comparison with the ERs; the rest are just operational costs. Another is what Nuveen has done - to present the ER on Total fund (common + leverage) but that is less meaningful for CEF holders (yes, it is more meaningful to Nuveen only).
    Fund evaluators such as M* don't fall under the SEC regulations. So, M* has been doing whatever its wants - at one time, it presented only the portfolio management fee on the Quote page. But as it has developed its own advisory and portfolio businesses that are subject to the SEC oversight, it has grudging moved the CEF ER info on the Price tab, and uncontroversially, it shows the CEF ERs in both ways, the SEC way, and its way.
    CEF Connect (run by Nuveen) https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/JGH
    Nuveen https://documents.nuveen.com/Documents/Nuveen/Default.aspx?uniqueId=baeb8b15-0bb3-4a69-970d-37500c25609d
    M* https://www.morningstar.com/cefs/xnys/jgh/price
  • the tyranny of downside math
    Thanks @msf / Those numbers don’t comport well with what I’ve been seeing. (But facts are facts.)
    Fidelity appears to think that CEF fees are often deceptively presented. From linked article: “Don’t Be Fooled” / Expense ratios: Seeing through the obfuscation
    https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/closed-end-funds/expenses
    “All CEFs must report their expense ratios according to a formula set forth by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The expense ratios are expressed as a percentage of average net assets. Most leveraged CEFs levy management fees against total assets, not just net assets, though this is not considered a best practice. Doing so results in higher management fees.
    “A management fee of 0.50% on a $500 million unleveraged fund is $2.5 million. If there is an additional $250 million in leverage, the fund provider can rake in an additional $1.25 million. The argument that it would cost more to manage a $750 million leveraged portfolio versus a $500 million unleveraged fund does not hold water. Investment management is a highly scalable business, meaning higher assets under management do not mean higher costs. Because such funds levy fees against total assets but must report expense ratios against net assets, their expense ratios are typically relatively high.”

    -
    Below, I’ve linked the “Fact Sheet” for one of Nuveen’s CEFs just as an example.
    Nuveen High Income Global CEF: https://documents.nuveen.com/Documents/Nuveen/Viewer.aspx?uniqueId=baeb8b15-0bb3-4a69-970d-37500c25609d
    Looking at the stated fees: 2.96% Total fund / 1.96% Shares
    I gather by that that the lower 1.96% relates to both the money you invest plus the borrowed money (leverage) the fund employs. Of course, the fee would appear lower if the leverage is included in the sum. But, if viewed just from the standpoint of what you invested (and actually own) the fee is closer to 3%.
    @msf - Thanks for the Kipplinger article. Features some of the best “low cost” CEFs. Most are under 1%. Some great returns. The ones I’ve explored are considerably more expensive than those covered in article. Albeit, I’ve looked mainly at ones using leverage, investing in lower rated credit and some of them engage in short selling which adds to cost.
  • Tech mania …
    "740% drop in the NASDAQ from its earlier high"
    Don'tcha just love Wikipedia? A long-only portfolio cannot drop more than 100%. What it means to say is that in 2½ years (March 2000 - October 2002) the NASDAQ composite gave back 92.5% of the gain it achieved in the roughly five preceding years (1995 - March 2000).
    Wikipedia does not give a citation for its claimed 800% of the NASDAQ composite over those five years, nor its claimed 740% (of the 1995 starting value) decline of the NASDAQ composite in the subsequent 2½ years.
    Yahoo reports a gain (including divs) in the NASDAQ composite of 579% between Jan 3, 1995 and March 10, 2000 (adjusted closing vals of 743.58 and 5048.62). Yahoo reports that between March 10, 2000 and Oct 9, 2002, the composite lost 78% (adjusted closing vals of 5048.62 and 1114.11). Here's another site reporting a decline of 76.85%: https://finbold.com/guide/dot-com-bubble/
  • the tyranny of downside math
    WSJ article quoted: https://www.wsj.com/articles/read-the-ingredients-before-buying-this-25-billion-etf-2e9b279d
    The excerpt in isolation is a bit confusing: "This should have been a great year" for contrarians. The wording suggests that the past 18 months (ending June 30th) was not great for value. Yet the 7.6% figure for IVE indeed blows away the S&P 500 index (VFIAX proxy) return of -4.3%.
    The point of the full article is that value (or growth) is not well defined, and performance figures vary depending on how value is defined. Bill Miller's Legg Mason Value owned growth companies when he felt they were value plays (undervalued).
    A value strategy not mentioned in the article, dogs of the dow (highest yielding stocks), when applied to the S&P 500 (SDOG) shows very different results - nearly flat (small losses) in 2022 (-0.13%) and YTD through June 2023 (-0.84%). (Data from ALPS; M* figures slightly different.)
    Despite its superficial stability, SDOG was 10% more volatile (std dev) than IVE over the past 18 months, per Portfolio Visualizer.
  • Tech mania …
    Not today. I’m referring to the mania of the late 90s which culminated in a 740% massive drop in the NASDAQ from its earlier high beginning in March 2000. Other major markets also suffered heavy losses.
    Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble
    (The above article notes that Barron’s had began sounding warnings at about this time and that Sir John Templeton made a small fortune by shorting tech prior to the wreck.)
    Notably, all 4 panelists on the famous Wall Street Week With Louis Rukeyser show’s end of year program December 31, 1999 sounded downright “bubbly” in forecasting the year ahead. Not one, including the program’s distinguished host, foresaw the approaching train wreck. (So much for “the experts”)
  • July 9, 2023, CBS 60 Minutes, AI, The Revolution, 27 minutes. Worthy of your time.
    I'll add this with my experience with what I considered an early A.I. My wife was working on her Masters thesis in 1999. We were both working full time and this was a daunting task for her. As my typing skills were very good, I assumed the task of dictation/transcribing from yellow legal sheets, her notes and statements for this work. At the time, we had a '1997' desktop computer running Windows 98 which also had the MS Word program. This was fine, but still not getting the work done fast enough. I purchased the 'Dragon Systems NaturallySpeaking 1.0 ' voice recognition program. This was simply the program and a headset microphone. I spent about 1 week, during off hours, teaching the program my voice 'sounds' for whatever word I spoke. The error rate became very small for its understanding of how I spoke numerous words. I could now read into the Word document what had been written or spoken by my wife. There were always some corrections to be made (typed) from words not understood or known, but the speed of producing the final printed document increased a great deal. I was amazed with the use of a computer interfaced with this program. Voice programs are available now, too; and are embedded into some office suite packages (MS 365, etc.) And cell phones.
    I remain most hopeful, using A.I. and computing power, with the speedy process(es) for medical applications of all types.
    NOTE: This was written by me without use of any additional programming features.
    Below, about the Dragon speak program.
    Dr. James Baker laid out the description of a speech understanding system called DRAGON in 1975.[5] In 1982 he and Dr. Janet M. Baker, his wife, founded Dragon Systems to release products centered around their voice recognition prototype.[6] He was President of the company and she was CEO.
    DragonDictate was first released for DOS, and utilized hidden Markov models, a probabilistic method for temporal pattern recognition. At the time, the hardware was not powerful enough to address the problem of word segmentation, and DragonDictate was unable to determine the boundaries of words during continuous speech input. Users were forced to enunciate one word at a time, clearly separated by a small pause after each word. DragonDictate was based on a trigram model, and is known as a discrete utterance speech recognition engine.[7]
    Dragon Systems released NaturallySpeaking 1.0 as their first continuous dictation product in 1997
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Upcoming Fidelity Webinar-
    The markets, economy, and your portfolio
    Thursday, July 20, 2023, 12:00pm – 3:00pm EDT
    Join Dr. Ben Bernanke, PIMCO and Fidelity
    https://fidelityevents.com/marketseconomyyourportfolio?ccsource=em_Marketing_1091825_1_0