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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Guggenheim partners announces the untimely and unexpected death of Scott Minerd
    A most insightful fixed income individual. I recently watched him on Bloomberg, and gave a lot of attention to his observations of the fixed income arena. An original thinker who spoke his mind and helped a novice investor understand the complex fixed income market place.
    Many have lost an excellent teacher, and I include myself.
    He passed yesterday afternoon of a heart attack during a normal workout routine.
    Scott Minerd
  • IHME Covid model for China. China's ability to function properly has global impacts.
    China's ability to function properly, as an economy, has global impacts; be it the production of medical based products, electronic devices or the numerous other consumer products sold around the globe. The ability to produce, also may impact commodity based imports/pricing.
    A massive Covid infection in China will not be good for anyone.
    IHME indicates a serious potential for a high Covid death rate in China. IHME was a major supplier of data from the beginning of Covid in the U.S.
    What is IHME?
    The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global research center at the University of Washington in Seattle, with a mission to measure the world's most pressing health problems and to evaluate the strategies used to address them.
    The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is a research institute working in the area of global health statistics and impact evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle.
    IHME was launched in June 2007 based on a core grant of $105 million primarily funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
    IHME / China Covid related links/articles
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/21/22
    For the week ending on 12/21/22, bearish remained the top sentiment (52.3%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (20.3%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (27.4%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -32.0% (very high). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); supply-chain disruptions; recession (2023?); the Fed (slower pace but higher rates longer); dollar (reversing); crypto ice-age; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (43+ weeks; Zelenskyy in DC); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were down, bonds down, oil up, gold up, dollar flat. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=8&scrollTo=872
  • Minimizing Tesla exposure
    Added more tsla, 15% trading acct portfolio in tsla. Hold long terms hope 2.5 X - 3.5X by then or start selling once reach $600s $650s 700$s rsi 75 and maybe running out of steams. Keep monthly cover call 20-25 deltas of strike prices til then, very good monthly premiums. By spring 23 TSLA maybe turnaround (hope stock come to fruition and yield good Er RESULTS and stock prices probably much improved. ) at least Elon learnt mistakes and looking for twitter ceo (I would too if lost 65 70% $ of my assets lol, be quiet and focus on my work instead sending mean tweets) .
    RSI now 14s extremely attractive. Friend been trading Tsla over past 8 yrs sold most everything and bought lots Tsla (80% portfolio in tsla now. Crazy swing trader)... Fwiw
  • Minimizing Tesla exposure
    And now this, from a current report in the San Francisco Chronicle:
    Layoffs keep coming with Tesla reportedly cutting jobs next quarter
    Electric car maker Tesla will reportedly freeze hiring and go through a fresh round of layoffs as job cuts at marquee companies small and large, including Twitter and Meta, have roiled a range of tech companies across the Bay Area.
    Electric car blog Electrek first reported the story.
    The cuts will reportedly come next quarter. Tesla did not respond to an emailed request for comment, and has not had a media department for some time. It wasn’t clear which departments or locations could be affected.
    The company moved its headquarters from Palo Alto to Austin, Texas last year, but still has offices in the Bay Area and a large manufacturing facility in Fremont that employs around 10,000 people.
    Tesla’s stock has trended down recently, dipping since CEO Elon Musk took over the social media site Twitter earlier this year. Despite topping $300 per share in the fall, shares had dropped below the $140 per share mark as of Wednesday.
    Tesla investors have taken to Twitter in recent days to criticize the company and for Musk appearing to spend little time recently running the electric car maker since his turbulent takeover at Twitter.
    Musk told Tesla investors on an earnings call in October that demand for the company’s electric vehicles was strong and that the company expected to sell every car it produced well into the foreseeable future.
    The company reported revenues of $21.5 billion during its most recent quarterly report, slightly below Wall Street expectations.
    The company has continued to tell investors it expects to increase vehicle deliveries by around 50% each year.
  • They never stop trying: Wells Fargo to pay $3.7B over consumer law violations

    Matt Levine, Part 2:
    If you are delinquent on a car loan to Wells Fargo, eventually some system at Wells Fargo decides to repossess your car. There is some delay between when this system sets the repossession in motion and when someone actually takes the car. In the meantime, if you make a payment, or sign an agreement with some other person at Wells Fargo to avoid repossession, then some other system at Wells Fargo knows that Wells Fargo should not repossess your car. Do those systems talk to each other? Does the person signing the agreement, or the mailbox receiving your payment, have a way to stop the repossession that is lurching into motion? Meh, sometimes, maybe, but not all the time.
    Again, this does not seem like rational profit-maximizing behavior by Wells Fargo; repossessing the car is surely more of a pain than having the borrower start making payments again. No one at Wells Fargo was like “bwahahaha, a clever trick would be to repossess people’s cars even after they start paying their loans back.” Wells Fargo just did it anyway. It is an emergent feature of Wells Fargo’s bureaucracy, and its computers.
    Or:
    Guaranteed Asset Protection (GAP) contracts are a type of debt cancellation contract (DCC) that generally relieve the borrower from the obligation to pay the remaining amount of the borrower’s loan on the vehicle above the vehicle’s depreciated value in the case of a major accident or theft. The auto dealer markets GAP coverage to the borrower and is paid the GAP fee. However, borrowers often finance GAP fees as part of their auto loan at origination and the GAP contract becomes part of the auto loan contract. If the borrower pays off the loan early, or the GAP contract otherwise terminates, the borrower may be entitled to a refund of the unearned portion of the GAP fee that they financed when first buying the vehicle. Such refund obligations usually are governed by the terms of the GAP contract executed between the borrower and the originating dealer, with GAP contracts sometimes requiring that the borrower make a written request to the originating dealer for a GAP refund. Respondent, as the owner and servicer of the GAP contracts, did not ensure that unearned GAP fees were refunded to all borrowers who paid off their loans early.
    That is just, like, Wells Fargo entered into a complicated contract with its auto-loan borrowers, and the contract provided that in certain circumstances, years in the future, Wells Fargo would have to send some money to the borrowers, and Wells Fargo just stuck the contract in a drawer somewhere and ignored it, and so did the borrowers, so it never sent them the money. Very understandable, for the borrowers, who are busy people who have jobs and lives and are not necessarily reading every word of their auto-loan contracts. Less understandable, for the bank, which is a bank.
    Or:
    Another error occurred from July 2013 until September 2018, when Respondent did not offer no-application modifications to approximately 190 borrowers with Government Sponsored Entity (GSE) loans. Respondent erroneously identified these borrowers as deceased and therefore did not assess their eligibility for modifications. Respondent is paying approximately $2.4 million in remediation to these borrowers.
    It is a little hard to tell how that one would work? Like, the rule is something like “certain mortgage borrowers need to be offered this loan modification.” Wells Fargo went through its records to see who needed to be offered the modification, and decided not to offer it to these 190 people because they were dead. They were not dead, so, a failure of record-keeping by Wells Fargo. But also … they were not offered the modification, so they kept paying their mortgages?[1] Like every month Wells Fargo would get a check from these people whom it had erroneously identified as deceased? If you got a check every month from someone who you thought was dead, you would be surprised, and presumably you would update your views. (You might think “aha, they are not dead,” or you might think “wow ghosts are real and very financially responsible,” or you might call them to say “so are you dead or what?”) But Wells Fargo is not a human with normal human intuitions. It is a big bureaucratic institution with databases that don’t necessarily talk to each other in sensible ways, and it blithely went along cashing checks from people while also believing they were dead.
    Here are CFPB Director Rohit Chopra’s remarks on the enforcement action:
    In the CFPB’s eleven years of existence, Wells Fargo has consistently been one of the most problematic repeat offenders of the banks and credit unions we supervise. …
    Put simply, Wells Fargo is a corporate recidivist that puts one third of American households at risk of harm. Finding a permanent resolution to this bank’s pattern of unlawful behavior is a top priority. Today, CFPB is announcing an important step toward that goal: restitution for victims of Wells Fargo’s widespread illegal activities. …
    While today’s order addresses a number of consumer abuses, it should not be read as a sign that Wells Fargo has moved past its longstanding problems or that the CFPB’s work here is done. Importantly, the order does not provide immunity for any individuals, nor, for example, does it release claims for any ongoing illegal acts or practices.
    While $3.7 billion may sound like a lot, the CFPB recognizes that this alone will not fix Wells Fargo’s fundamental problems. Over the past several years, Wells Fargo executives have taken steps to fix longstanding problems, but it is also clear that they are not making rapid progress. We are concerned that the bank’s product launches, growth initiatives, and other efforts to increase profits have delayed needed reform.
    Imagine being the sort of person who gets ahead in banking and becomes a senior executive at Wells Fargo. One of your subordinates comes to you to be like “I have an idea for a new product that will attract a lot of customers and bring in a lot of revenue.” Another one of your subordinates comes to you to be like “sometimes we charge people late fees even after agreeing not to, because our systems don’t talk to each other very well; I have an idea for how to modernize them to make sure that doesn’t happen. It will cost a lot of money, but in exchange we, uh, won’t get to charge as many late fees?” Which subordinate would you want to spend more time with? Who sounds like more fun?
  • They never stop trying: Wells Fargo to pay $3.7B over consumer law violations
    Following is the complete text from a current newsletter by Matt Levine, who writes the "Money Stuff" column for Bloomberg. The newsletter is free, so there should be no issue with it's reproduction here.
    If you would kike to subscribe to this free newsletter from Matt Levine, here is the link.
    Oh Wells Fargo
    I think often about the time I wrote:
    If you have U.S. dollars in a bank account at JPMorgan Chase & Co., and I have U.S. dollars in a bank account at JPMorgan Chase & Co., and I want to send you 100 of my dollars, what we do is I tell JPMorgan to subtract 100 from the number of dollars in my bank account and add 100 to the number of dollars in your bank account. This gets dressed up in a lot of procedures, because it would be bad if JPMorgan got the math wrong or if it moved money from one account to another without getting the proper authorizations, but as a matter of, like, computer science, it is dead easy. JPMorgan keeps a list of people and how many dollars they have, and you and I both trust JPMorgan to keep that list (that’s what it means that we bank there!), and so we just tell JPMorgan to update the list to reflect the transaction between us.
    And lots of computer engineers tweeted and emailed to be like “no, actually, it is a hard problem of computer science to have a big database of who has what, and to update it instantly and reliably to reflect transactions from many different sources.” And I was like, sure, fine, I guess. I still feel like I was entitled to be right: A bank is, at its heart, a computer for keeping track of who has money, and for updating its ledger as people send and receive money. And at a high level you and I could describe how we’d expect that computer to work — “if I deposit $100 in an ATM, the bank will increase the number in my account by $100,” that sort of thing — and we will be disappointed if it doesn’t work that way, if the bank loses track of who has the money or how much they have, or if it doesn’t update its ledger promptly or process transactions in the right order. If the bank messes up and says “look I am sorry but keeping track of money is a hard job and you can’t expect us to do it with 100% accuracy,” we will say things like “yes we can” and “that is literally exactly what we expect of you” and “if keeping track of the money is too hard for you then maybe you should not be a bank” and “now you have to pay an enormous fine.” And yet, sure, empirically, banks do sometimes mess it up. It’s not as easy as it sounds.
    Wells Fargo, for instance, messes it up a lot:
    The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is ordering Wells Fargo Bank to pay more than $2 billion in redress to consumers and a $1.7 billion civil penalty for legal violations across several of its largest product lines. The bank’s illegal conduct led to billions of dollars in financial harm to its customers and, for thousands of customers, the loss of their vehicles and homes. Consumers were illegally assessed fees and interest charges on auto and mortgage loans, had their cars wrongly repossessed, and had payments to auto and mortgage loans misapplied by the bank. Wells Fargo also charged consumers unlawful surprise overdraft fees and applied other incorrect charges to checking and savings accounts. Under the terms of the order, Wells Fargo will pay redress to the over 16 million affected consumer accounts, and pay a $1.7 billion fine, which will go to the CFPB's Civil Penalty Fund, where it will be used to provide relief to victims of consumer financial law violations.
    Here is the CFPB’s consent order from yesterday, which is basically just a litany of “Wells Fargo’s computers messed up.” For instance:
    Respondent also assessed borrowers erroneous fees and interest because of technology, audit, and compliance failures. As an example, from at least 2011 until at least March 2019, Respondent sometimes incorrectly entered the effective date of a payment deferment in, or omitted it from, its servicing system-of-record, which resulted in $26.5 million in erroneously assessed late fees to more than 688,000 borrower accounts.
    If you owe Wells Fargo money on a car loan, and you don’t pay it, and you have a payment deferment, they won’t charge you a fee, but if you don’t have a payment deferment they will. But if you have a payment deferment, but they don’t write it down in the right place, they will also charge you the fee, and then they will get in trouble. In some sense this is profit-maximizing behavior by Wells Fargo: If they agree to defer payments, and then charge you the fees anyway, they will make more money in fees. But it doesn’t seem intentional, and the CFPB doesn’t think it was. (Why say you agree to the deferment, and then charge the fees?) It seems like a failure of systems, of “technology, audit and compliance”: Wells Fargo did not do a good job of keeping track of deferments, so it sometimes charged fees by mistake.
    Or:
    From at least 2011 through 2022, Respondent experienced other types of servicing errors, which had the potential to contribute to a borrower’s delinquency, and in some cases led to improper repossessions. For example, Respondent repossessed vehicles despite the borrower having made a payment or entering into an agreement to forestall the repossession.
    (Continued)
  • Barron’s Article: Higher Medicare Premiums / How to Contain Them / Investing Tactics
    Medicare beneficiaries with an IRMAA who meet certain criteria can request that we make a new initial determination of their IRMAA.
    NOTE: The original IRMAA decision takes effect and continues until we make a new initial determination. If we make a new initial determination in the beneficiary’s favor, we retroactively refund the excess IRMAA amount paid.
    https://secure.ssa.gov/poms.nsf/lnx/0601101050
  • Miller Opportunity Trust to change name and manager change
    When it launched, we referred to it as "Mr. Miller's retirement present from Legg Mason."
    He's collecting a 0.77% management fee on $1.1 billion in a fund that - per Morningstar - is in the 100th percentile for the past week.
    Month.
    Quarterly.
    Year.
    Three years.
    Five years.
    Fifteen years.
    - - - - -
    The key is the "alpha or omega" performance that Mark alludes to. The fund trails only 84% of its peers over the past decade buoyed by top tier performance in five of those years and anchored by three dead last years.
  • Minimizing Tesla exposure
    @Gary1952 Although Zuckerberg is not as erratic as Musk and not making toxic statements to tarnish Meta’s brand on a daily basis, many ESG funds have actually minimized or eliminated their exposure to Meta because of its ethical problems; https://medium.com/the-esg-advisor/most-sustainable-funds-sidestepped-the-meta-plunge-40c0f7b90560
    I would also say that Meta has a better—from an investor’s perspective— more monopolistic product that Twitter and Tesla. Meta has an entrenched massive user base whose entire social life is wrapped up in its platform, making it much harder to leave than Twitter, which allows much smaller tidbits of communication. It is also far more entrenched than Tesla, which has a luxury product consumers can take or leave easily. A company like Tesla really can’t afford to offend its wealthy prospective customers. Frankly, I think Zuckerberg could if he chose get away with a lot more erratic behavior than Musk because of the product he’s selling. Yet he too is viewed as a problematic CEO to many ESG investors and just as entrenched in his leadership.
  • Minimizing Tesla exposure
    @BenWP @LewisBraham
    Since October first, BRTRX has sorta decoupled from TSLA ( after marching in lock step for years) , down 17% vs TSLA -48%, so it looks like Baron has trimmed the TSLA exposure to less than 50% reported at the end of September. But he probably still owns huge amount
    While TSLA cars are apparently quite innovative, I do not think you can use it's previous growth rates as an indicator of what the future might hold. TSLA share of EV market has been declining, especially if you look at non luxury cars ( under $50,000)
    https://electrek.co/2022/11/29/tesla-owns-us-ev-market-but-losing-market-shares-data/
    The major safety problems with fires etc, the impossibility of autonomous driving anytime soon all are a concern. Would you put a TSLA battery in your house for energy storage? What if it caught fire?
    It is hard to quantitate the impact Musk's behavior has on sales and the stock, but it can't be popular on Wall Street and with major banks. Who in their right mind would lend this guy money?
    Maybe the problems are factored into the stock price, but how can you possibly know what the next shoe to drop from Musk will be ?
  • New Harbor ETF: OSEA
    HAINX did well with Castegren, but after he was gone, Harbor stuck with Northern Cross for another seven years (2011 - 2018). Harbor wasn't quick to pull the trigger here, as outflows and poor returns piled up.
    The firm was axed from the fund following what Harbor referred to as ‘a sustained period of underperformance.’
    The fund had lagged its benchmark, the MSCI EAFE NR, in every calendar year from 2013 to 2017, according to Lipper data, although was ahead for the year [2018] at the time of the termination.
    ...
    The fund had also experienced outflows with investors pulling money in every quarter from the last three months of 2014 onward. In total, over that time to the end of Q2 2018, the fund suffered net outflows of $28.9 billion, according to data from Lipper.
    https://citywire.com/pro-buyer/news/boston-pm-shuts-shop-months-after-losing-20bn-subadvisor-spot/a1188410
    Harbor similarly stuck with PIMCO as manager of HABDX for seven years after Gross left in 2014. Here that perseverance made sense. Despite the outflows, the fund turned in solid if not earth-shattering performance over that period.
    The fund suffered heavy outflows in October 2014 following Gross’s abrupt exit from Pimco and has seen money leave in the vast majority of months since then. Over the last five years [through 2021], it has returned an annualized 4.43%, ahead of the Morningstar Intermediate Core-Plus Bond category average 4.12% and the Bloomberg US Universal’s 4.0%.
    https://citywire.com/pro-buyer/news/harbor-drops-pimco-from-1-6bn-bond-fund/a1592923
  • New Harbor ETF: OSEA
    Here is a snap shot of Bengt Serger, the fund manager, and a global fund (
    C WorldWide Global Equities 1A ) he co-manages.
    https://citywire.com/wealth-manager/manager/bengt-seger/d14658?periodMonths=60&sectorID=3745
    Can’t comment much beyond the annual performance.
    The Harbor ETF is concentrated, top 10 holdings approximate 50% of the ETF. Harbor in general does a good job pick active managers serving as subadvisors and don’t hesitate to replace them. In the past, I had good experience with Haken Castegren managing the international fund before his passing.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I added to my BTO holding, thinking the banks are better capitalized now than in prior recessionary periods. They may be stressed in the first half of the year, but I believe that you’re well compensated with a current discount and 8.11% distribution. This fund is focused on the regional banks primarily.
    I’m also looking to reenter the fixed income space, initially via preferreds. Flaherty & Crumrine Is a solid firm in that area…looking at FFC, most likely after the next rate hike.
  • Passive Investing - Myth and Marketing Tale?
    CIted WSJ column: https://www.wsj.com/articles/mutual-funds-professor-is-blunt-with-the-criticism-1415048456
    Indexing as in index funds or as in constructing a market (or segment) index?
    Total market index funds typically sample and I suspect make corrective/tracking portfolio changes daily, beyond managing cash flows. If making non-periodic changes is a disqualifying attribute, then ISTM that index funds that sample are likely disqualified as passive funds. And that doesn't seem right.
    I prefer to consider index funds those funds that purport to track a third party benchmark. (In this I am somewhat echoing the SEC's description.) This begs the question: is that benchmark a "true" index?
    I agree with Prof. Snowball that the S&P "indexes" are not indexes, because they do not follow a formula; securities can be removed somewhat arbitrarily (see below) so long as a human committee perceives that the securities are no longer "representative".
    A related reason why I don't consider the S&P "indexes" to be indexes follows from the SEC's description of an index as something that "measures the performance of a 'basket' of securities (like stocks or bonds), which is meant to represent a sector of a stock market, or of an economy." A key attribute is that the measurement is path-independent. That is, it doesn't matter how we got to this point, a market's performance is well defined.
    In contrast, the S&P committee says that it will not necessarily remove a security from an index even if it would not have included it were it to construct the index from scratch. That's path-dependence. It matters how we got here. The index doesn't necessarily provide an accurate measurement of its market.
    it is important to reiterate that just because a given stock might not represent its Index well does not mean that it will definitely be removed from that Index, just that the potential exists. We go back to the definition above and ask ourselves, “If we were starting this Index afresh today, would this company be a member?” If the answer is no, the stock would seriously be considered as a removal candidate.
    https://www.evidenceinvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/General-Criteria-for-SP-U.S.-Index-Membership-Roger-Bos-Michele-Ruotolo-September-2000.pdf
    About the time S&P wrote that paper, it was busy removing several old economy stocks from the S&P 500 for "lack of representation" and replacing them with new economy stocks. The resulting underperformance was overwhelming.
    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/rsi/misfitstocks.htm
    With respect to LEXCX - passive, yes; index, no (what is it benchmarking aside from itself?). Somewhat similar to HOLDRs - gone, unlamented, in 2011.
  • Minimizing Tesla exposure
    And now this: https://businessinsider.com/tesla-factory-employees-allege-illegal-firing-criticism-elon-musk-covid-2022-12 There is an intangible often called "brand value" that matters especially in luxury goods. I feel like Musk doesn't quite realize who his customers at Tesla most likely are and what the politics of someone who buys an electric car might be. This kind of behavior damages the brand of a prestige product people don't have to buy. Meanwhile competitors are nipping at his heels: https://greenmatters.com/renewables/tesla-top-competitors
  • AMZN settles with EU re: antitrust.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/video/amazon-settles-eu-over-antitrust-170355102.html
    ....And still they've been LOSING money. Just ask David Giroux.
    Capitalism. "Greed is good." --- Gordon Gecko.