Good article: https://morningstar.com/articles/1144363/which-bank-stocks-are-most-at-risk-of-a-liquidity-crisis

@sma3, I learned a lot about the so-called state insurance then!
First, our money was tied up for 5-6 years, not months. Rates offered were below high m-mkt rates at the time. So, only opportunity lost, not nominal money.
I called our state insurance department and said that I wanted my money back. They said, not so fast. States' insurance departments were coordinating the rescue and I will just have to be patient. BUT, if I wanted my money right away, I could take the 40% haircut offer on the table. Well, I "decided" to be patient.
By now I have personal experiences with 1 bank failure and 2 insurance failures. Only the FDIC is prompt in setting quick up to the limit. No experience with the SIPC, but from the news, I think that they also take their time while brokerage positions held may be frozen.

@crash
That one on Kaalawai Ave looks like just the ticket for me and my wife to escape New England winters. Can you run over and check it out for us?

Giggle. LOL.
Back up in Pittsfield and up by the VT line, they're still digging out. Tomorrow's St. Patrick's. Already. Beware the Ides of March. A day late.

RYSEX also has a CPA accountant manager: Charles Dreifus. I also think the more concentrated a fund with fewer holdings is, the more such forensic balance sheet analysis is necessary. The manager with 100 stocks can worry less about a single problem balance sheet. The one with 20 stocks really should be focused on every aspect of each company, especially their balance sheets.

“I believe social media has magnified the bank panic.”
Both social and mainstream media have had a field day. “It sells in Peoria” (increases ratings).
There are no lines in front of banks. But there’s a lot of itchy fingers on keyboards moving money around. That modern day ability changes the instantaneity & speed of old fashioned “bank runs.”
I’d been using GNMA as a cash substitute. Sold all today. The 10 year was over 4% about 1 week ago. Dropped below 3.5% (around 3.4% at one point) this morning. Hard to say what’s coming down the pipe - but a guess is they’ll find a way to patch up the shaky banking system both here and in Europe - adding liquidity in one way or another - and that inflation will be well above 2% a year from now. Bonds might do well in that environment, but I wouldn’t bank on it. There’s probably good money to be made on some of the regional banks - but not for me.
To be clear - I still own a high-yield muni and a global bond fund.

I feel many fund companies including this one would benefit from having a CPA specializing in forensic accounting and detecting problematic balance sheets on staff. But very few fund companies have such employees, choosing the CFA or MBA manager/analyst route, and those folks mostly are just looking for growth, not fraud or balance sheet problems. It's a different skillset: https://barrons.com/articles/why-your-fund-manager-isnt-looking-for-fraud-51599250358

What surprises me is how well the risk on sectors of the bond market - junk corporates, junk munis, and bank loans - have reacted to the banking chaos. They are still positive YTD albeit barely. At their nadir in 08/09/ they were all down around 30%. For that matter I am surprised at how well the major equity indexes have held, especially the Nadaq 100. I believe social media has magnified the bank panic. When all is said and done the equity indexes could surprise to the upside. Then again, my predictive abilities are as lacking as anyone’s.

From M*: "For Grandeur Peak Global Stalwarts GGSYX, First Republic Bank was its largest holding as of Oct. 31, 2022, the most recently available portfolio data. The stock was 4.5% of the $210 million fund. The fund also held 1.9% In Silicon Valley Bank. Over the past five trading days the fund has fallen 9.5%." For a fund company describing its methodologies as "world class" they've made -- IMHO -- quite a few missteps over the recent past.

@catch22, MOVE is not only a blend but it is normalized, so it doesn't have a direct meaning as VIX.
But we can look at past values and ranges.
All-time high 264.60 (GFC, 2008), all-time low 36.62 (Covid, 2020).
Covid 2020 range 36.62-163.70.
Now 198.71 (3/15/23 EOD). So, well above its high during the credit-freeze of early-2020.

MOVE chart at Google Finance starting Oct. 2019
I've followed MOVE for some time and still don't find or know what it shows for me to be of use. I understand the index is a bond reference, not unlike VIX for equity volatility. Probably just me to find meaning vs watching bond yields and/or flows, and of course; everything the FED has done/is doing and bond markets reactions from the big players. And for me, I already have too many sticks in the fire that I watch; aside from whatever is being discussed by whomever.
As you've noted....If I could readily chart MOVE against something I could us; I may discover something.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/809593/000113322823001332/abatrcf-html6116_497.htm
497 1 abatrcf-html6116_497.htm AMERICAN BEACON AHL TARGETRISK CORE FUND - 497
American Beacon AHL TargetRisk Core Fund
Supplement dated March 15, 2023
to the
Prospectus, Summary Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information, each dated May 1, 2022
The Board of Trustees of American Beacon Funds has approved a plan to liquidate and terminate the American Beacon AHL TargetRisk Core Fund (the “Fund”) on or about July 7, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”), based on the recommendation of American Beacon Advisors, Inc., the Fund’s investment manager.
In anticipation of the liquidation, effective immediately, the Fund is closed to new shareholders. In addition, in anticipation of and in preparation for the liquidation of the Fund, AHL Partners LLP, the sub-advisor to the Fund, may need to increase the portion of the Fund's assets held in cash and similar instruments in order to pay for the Fund’s expenses and to meet redemption requests. The Fund may no longer be pursuing its investment objective during this transition. On or about the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute cash pro rata to all remaining shareholders. These shareholder distributions may be taxable events. Thereafter, the Fund will terminate.
The Fund will be liquidated on or about July 7, 2023. Liquidation proceeds will be delivered in accordance with the existing instructions for your account. No action is needed on your part.
Please note that you may be eligible to exchange your shares of the Fund at net asset value per share at any time prior to the Liquidation Date for shares of the same share class of another American Beacon Fund under certain limited circumstances. You also may redeem your shares of the Fund at any time prior to the Liquidation Date. No sales charges, redemption fees or termination fees will be imposed in connection with such exchanges and redemptions. In general, exchanges and redemptions are taxable events for shareholders.
In connection with its liquidation, the Fund may declare distributions of its net investment income and net capital gains in advance of its Liquidation Date, which may be taxable to shareholders. You should consult your tax adviser to discuss the Fund’s liquidation and determine its tax consequences.
For more information, please contact us at 1-800-658-5811, Option 1. If you purchased shares of the Fund through your financial intermediary, please contact your broker-dealer or other financial intermediary for further details.
***********************************************************
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE

AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/15/23
For the week ending on 3/15/23, bearish remained the top sentiment (48.4%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (19.2%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (32.4%; above average); Bull-Bear Spread was -29.2% (very low). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed; dollar; cryptos; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (55+ weeks, 2/24/22- ); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were down, bonds up, oil down sharply, gold up sharply, dollar down. Crazy rate volatility as 3 banks failed in 4 days; SVB Bank & Signature Bank, #2 & #3 biggest bank failures in the US History. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=9&scrollTo=974

This article goes into more detail than I have seen elsewhere about the politics of the 2018 changes in the banking regs that allowed SVB to escape regulation, and how easily the startups etc could have protected their funds. It also implies that SVB prevented them from using multiple other banks ( with InfraSweep).
https://prospect.org/economy/2023-03-13-silicon-valley-bank-bailout-deregulation/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
We still dont know how many of these accounts were really “ small businesses”. Roku apparently had half a billion dollars on deposit without any protection
Why should we bail out Roku?

I'm with ya.

+1

+10

Lowenstein’s take on the subject is worth reading: https://nytimes.com/2023/03/15/opinion/silicon-valley-bank-rescue-glass-steagall-act.html

Great! Picked up 1 yr from Barclays Bank 5.40% yesterday. Will buy more this week as they are moving quickly.

It's almost here - testing the rollout now.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230315a.htm

@Schwab, Wednesday, 1:50 pm PST:
1yr CD: 5.4%
1yr T-bill: 4.744%
Note: Schwab Bank is among the offerings @5.4%, so this group may be under some pressure.
Additional Note: @ Wednesday, 1:59 pm PST:
Schwab & a couple of other 5.4% offerings no longer available- already subscribed? That was fast.
Yet more: @ Wednesday, 2:09 pm PST: New listing- but not a new offering...
HomeStreet Bank WA 4.75% CD 12/01/2023   Offered at discount: price: 99.455 / YTM: 5.543%.
Seems like a solid vote of "no confidence" in HomeStreet Bank WA
Yet more: @ Wednesday, 2:25 pm PST: HomeStreet Bank listing gone- somebody liked it.

BRK.b was down almost 3% much of the day. Finished down 2.44%. Yet, AAPL was up for the day. And BOA BAC only lost 1%. Looks like insurance companies got hit. One I watch was down 3.4%. I’d think the issue relates to interest rates in some manner - which were all over the place today. (And some of the weather phenomena contributed too).
@LewisBraham said: “I wonder if any large institutions in particular were getting out, and if so, why?”
One i watch, GHC , is 65% institutionally owned. It’s dropped like a rock, losing about 15% the past 10 trading days by my rough count. The why is hard to answer. I tend to attribute moves like that to market manipulation more than to fundamentals. Drive the price down and then buy back in later. Or maybe short sellers at work.