One thing worth doing with small-caps is looking at their betas. Only a handful have betas less than 1 and if you’re worried about volatility, that matters.

@hank, I only watched the first five minutes or so and likely not get to it until late Sunday. A

It would be nice to hear any takeaways after you’ve watched. Generally, the recent rally in equities seems to have surprised everyone, including most of WSW’s guests. If you listened to Summers every week I suspect you would have burried your head in the sand the past 6 months (financially speaking). One notable exception is frequent guest, Sarah Ketterer, Causeway Capital CEO & Fundamental Portfolio Manager. She’s been more positive than most over the year I think. Schwab’s Liz Saunders, while more cautious, also offers a balanced and circumspect picture.
One (unrelated) sign that things have improved is that PRWCX has clawed its way back from doubled-digit loss territory to only - 4.71% YTD.

Did anybody get anything out of this week’s show? The first 2 guests were well qualified. The woman was from Invesco. But I thought they spoke in broad generalities. Geez - Can we stop second guessing what the Fed will do next? Even the Fed members sound clueless. And to say China “might be” a productive investment going forward really doesn’t say much. Like it or not like? What percentage would you so allocate?
I can’t stomach Summers anymore. Obviously bright and highly educated. His particular weekly “take” on inflation & Fed policy wouldn’t seem to require what sounds like 10 minutes of droning. You don’t suppose they’re paying him by the number of words? :)
Thanks @BaluBalu for posting all the shows. (I always record / replay the show thru my Hulu subscription). While I didn’t take away much this week, often the guests are really good and leave some incisive commentary.
Hoping others can contribute here whatever substance, insights, advice they gleaned from this week’s program? While the show shines occasionally, overall it bears little resemblance to the spontaneity and expert analysis served up by a distinguished array of financial gurus on Louis Rukeyser’s old Wall Street Week.

+1.

There was a post at M* Discussions (long thread, post# 326, warning - needs lot of scrolling) yesterday that offered a ray of hope. https://community.morningstar.com/s/question/0D53o000066YnacCAC/does-anyone-else-feel-like-the-new-morningstar-investor-is-a-huge-downgrade-compared-with-the-legacy-portfolio-manager
"Bill.Baranyk (Employee)
21 hours ago
Hello Investor subscriber,
We're continuing to receive feedback from subscribers on the Investor experience, with an emphasis on the status of missing or incomplete features.
We take feedback seriously and want to show how we’re using it to improve Investor. So, we’d like to lay out what you can expect over the next six to nine months.
The status of legacy Portfolio Manager
Legacy Portfolio Manager will not be retired until the features in Investor's Portfolio help you accomplish the same tasks as legacy: monitoring your portfolio with relevant data in customizable views, understanding investment performance, and reviewing Portfolio X-Ray analysis on your holdings. Our goal is to add features to Portfolio that support those tasks by the end of 2022.
As we continue to build and release, you’ll see similar features to those in legacy, but you’ll also see new additions that improve how you research, analyze, and monitor investments.
But rest assured: Legacy will not be retired until all those features are successfully up and running in Investor. We’ll communicate our progress along the way, and if we aren’t on track to hit our goal, legacy will remain until we are.
Custom views
Custom views are coming to Investor, and they’ll be similar to the My Views feature in legacy Portfolio. The launch of views will come in phases, with the first phase rolling out in early September 2022. This launch will include an improved process for creating, editing, and sorting custom views and around 80 additional data points to work with.
The remaining phases will roll out throughout the rest of the year and will include expanded data points and more ways to control how you view information within tables. [We’re also determining the best way to bring over custom views you’ve already created in legacy Portfolio Manager.]
We’ll notify you as each phase launches.
Performance tracking
In the fall, we’ll add performance tracking to Investor for portfolios that have manually added purchases/sales. This includes both data and comparisons to similar benchmarks. Watchlists in Investor will not include functionality for performance tracking.
Investor will continue to evolve with the needs of our subscribers, so we’ll keep you informed as updates come. This approach may be a bit different than what you’ve experienced with Premium. It’s all in service of getting the right features into your hands, so you can focus on your investment goals.
We can’t wait for you to see what’s in store over the coming weeks and months.
Happy investing,
The Morningstar Investor team"

This week's episode from YouTube:

From Bloomberg site:
https://www.bloomberg.com/btv/series/wall-street-week

Good info @Junkster & @Ybb.
From which event in time is the average 12 month S&P return of 18% calculated? What is the date from which we are supposed to observe this gain? I had to ask because S&P 500 is already up 18% from its June low.
Thanks.

The 18% is from today. But many other such indicators kicked in long before today. For instance since 1946 we have had only 8 quarters where the S@P had a decline of 15% or greater. Average following 12 month return has been 26,1%. This past June quarter makes it a 9th occurrence. So we shall see. But so far so good.

18% from today would make it approx 40% from June bottom. That is huge. If so, I could end up being one of the losers because today I sold all that I bought in 2022 and sitting in more than 40% cash. Still YTD portfolio loss - there was so much institutional pessimism about the 2022 swoon that I was not aggressive in buying in June. I think it was just a day or two around June 15, BoA revised their prognosis and said they see S&P 500 bottoming at near 3,000 with the year end target of 3,400.
P.S.: My sell is not based on any technical analysis, except that we are still in a Fed tightening cycle. S&P 500 is only 11% below all time high while interest rates across the curve are much higher in a short period of time. It just felt right to sell. Of course, the back to school retail sales could prompt retailers to give good guidance next week, giving more reasons for the market to keep going up.

Good info @Junkster & @Ybb.
From which event in time is the average 12 month S&P return of 18% calculated? What is the date from which we are supposed to observe this gain? I had to ask because S&P 500 is already up 18% from its June low.
Thanks.

The 18% is from today. But many other such indicators kicked in long before today. For instance since 1946 we have had only 8 quarters where the S@P had a decline of 15% or greater. Average following 12 month return has been 26,1%. This past June quarter makes it a 9th occurrence. So we shall see. But so far so good. Study done by Ryan Detrick.

Good info @Junkster & @Ybb.
From which event in time is the average 12 month S&P return of 18% calculated? What is the date from which we are supposed to observe this gain? I had to ask because S&P 500 is already up 18% from its June low.
Thanks.

Vanguard Global ESG Select Stock Fund (VESGX) came to mind after viewing the clean/renewable ETFs thread. Wellington Management is the advisor for VESGX.
The fund has performed well since its 2019 inception but this is a short evaluation period.
It's unclear to me how selecting securities based on net zero targets will affect investment performance.
Any thoughts?
"Specifically, the advisor seeks to invest approximately 65% of the Fund’s assets
in companies with net zero science-based targets by 2030 and approximately
90% of the Fund’s assets in companies with net zero science-based targets by
2040, with the ultimate goal of investing 100% of the Fund’s assets in
companies that have reached net zero by 2050. The advisor reserves the right to
deviate from these targets without notice."

Over the past six weeks it has been one after another breadth, volume and assorted momentum indicators kick in on the buy side saying the bear is dead. Today yet another one from Seth Gordon on Twitter. 90% of the S@P stocks are trading above their 50 day moving average. Since 2003 has occurred 14 times with a positivity rate of 94% and an average 12 month S@P return of 18%

@Observant1, the high correlation between the market and A/D line is seen on the chart. But there can be short-term divergences (nonconforming). The A/D thrust days were mentioned earlier - another sign of cash on the sidelines burning hole in investors' pockets. All this means that the market participation is broadening, the rally failure is less likely at this critical juncture, and farther we get from the mid-June lows, less likely it is that may be broken (may be low testing only, if that). Just my 2 cents.

As for, "Is it safe?", think back in time (1922) to the Teapot Dome Scandal.
In today's world, what is safe from predators?

SP500 cumulative A/D line is at a new high, https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1558147852202917891

Thanks @yogibearbull. I should clarify. I'm looking at active mutual funds rather ETFs as that is the only option I have in my 401K. very interested in any suggestions there. thanks!

It is like the January-effect playing in Summer. Use anything SC, and IWM, IWO would be fine too.
Major indexes from 6/16/22 https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p16477435900

Strategic Petroleum Reserve
From: Fossil Energy and Carbon Management
Excerpts from that site:

SPR Quick Facts
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is a U.S. Government complex of four sites with deep underground storage caverns created in salt domes along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts.
Highest inventory - The SPR was filled to its then 727 million barrel authorized storage capacity on December 27, 2009; the inventory of 726.6 million barrels was the highest ever held in the SPR.
Previous Inventory Milestones
2008. Prior to Hurricane Gustav coming ashore on September 1, 2008, the SPR had reached 707.21 million barrels, the highest level ever held up until that date. A series of emergency exchanges conducted after Hurricane Gustav, followed shortly thereafter by Hurricane Ike, reduced the level by 5.4 million barrels.
2005. Prior to the 2008 hurricane releases, the former record had been reached in late August 2005, just days before Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast. Hurricane Katrina emergency releases of both crude oil sales and exchanges (loans) totaled 20.8 million barrels.
1977. First oil was delivered to the newly constructed SPR, 412,000 barrels of light sweet crude.
Current authorized storage capacity - 714 million barrels
Fill status - The SPR completed fill on December 27, 2009 with a cargo that arrived and began to unload on Christmas Day. The cargo was 493,000 barrels of Saharan Blend, a light sweet crude that was delivered to the Bryan Mound site. A sale and drawdown in 2011 reduced the inventory to 695.9 million barrels.
Current days of import protection in SPR - At the end of CY 2021 (as of December 31, 2021), the SPR’s crude oil inventory was 594.7 MMbbl. This is equivalent to approximately 1,206 days of supply of total U.S. petroleum net imports.
International Energy Agency requirement - 90 days of import protection (both public and private stocks). In past years, the United States has met its commitment with a combination of SPR stocks and industry stocks. The days of import protection may vary based on actual net U.S. petroleum imports and the inventory level of the SPR.
Average price paid for oil in the Reserve - $29.70 per barrel

Drawdown Capability
Maximum nominal drawdown capability - 4.4 million barrels per day
Time for oil to enter U.S. market - 13 days from Presidential decision
Investment to date - About $25.7 billion ($5 billion for facilities; $20.7 billion for crude oil).

This US SPR status from Twitter is from June and you may look for updated data from the IEA. There was also some recent news on changing the law on SPR buys from the current bids-system to buying in the futures markets or with forward-contracts, as appropriate. Realize that the SPR activities are not for profits but to stabilize the US oil supply-demand and prices.
https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1539195742753116160

Hi guys,
So the strategic oil reserve is being taped 1 mil a day for 90 days. So some questions here....hope you can help. In no special order.....after a few longnecks, what's the point? lol.....
1. How much can be drawn down before you have to stop?
2. How much is in the reserve?
3. I have heard that Australia and Britain also have oil in there. Are there more countries that have some in there?
4. How long until you must replace the oil?
5. How?....Is it in the budget or do you just print more money?
6. Where does the oil come from: OPEC or U.S.?
7. How often can we do this? Every year?
8. Who is in charge of it? the President, or others also?
9. Is it US refined and kept in the U.S.?
10. Is it kept safe, say, like Fort Knox? Is it on military ground---no terrorists?
Just some thoughts and thanks in advance for your help.
God bless
the Pudd

M* JR compares I-Bonds and 5-Yr TIPS with T-Bills/Notes and reaches favorable conclusions under title, I-Bonds Forever? (Well, no, but still good).
He used 2 long-term scenarios: 1st, since 09/1998 (I-Bond inception) and 2nd, since 01/1995 (when 5-yr TIPS issuance resumed).
For I-Bonds, he used 2 assumptions - the initial 3.4% fixed/base rate and 0% fixed/base rate (to entirely remove that effect). So, this 2nd scenario only captured the CPI effect and actual I-Bond buyers did better than that bottom line.
Unsurprisingly, his conclusions were that that the initial fixed/base rate was a give-away for then (1998) new I-Bonds and those did the best. But 0% I-Bonds also kept up with alternatives. He cautions about their limitations (annual limit, non-tradability) and to keep future expectations reasonable. But not to pass up a good deal, he has just now bought I-Bonds for both his wife and him. Welcome to the club JR!
As has been noted here, these conclusions are not surprising because I-Bonds, and 5-yr TIPS held to maturity, have kept up with $$CPI.
www.morningstar.com/articles/1108848/i-bonds-forever
LINK