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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Ping the Board
    As for, "Is it safe?", think back in time (1922) to the Teapot Dome Scandal.
    In today's world, what is safe from predators?
    Rossby in Other Investing
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    SP500 cumulative A/D line is at a new high, https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1558147852202917891
    image
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Other Investing
  • Small-caps at all?
    Thanks @yogibearbull. I should clarify. I'm looking at active mutual funds rather ETFs as that is the only option I have in my 401K. very interested in any suggestions there. thanks!
    MikeW in Other Investing
  • Small-caps at all?
    It is like the January-effect playing in Summer. Use anything SC, and IWM, IWO would be fine too.
    Major indexes from 6/16/22 https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p16477435900
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Other Investing
  • Ping the Board

    Strategic Petroleum Reserve
    From: Fossil Energy and Carbon Management
    Excerpts from that site:
    SPR Quick Facts
    The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is a U.S. Government complex of four sites with deep underground storage caverns created in salt domes along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts.
    Highest inventory - The SPR was filled to its then 727 million barrel authorized storage capacity on December 27, 2009; the inventory of 726.6 million barrels was the highest ever held in the SPR.
    Previous Inventory Milestones
    2008. Prior to Hurricane Gustav coming ashore on September 1, 2008, the SPR had reached 707.21 million barrels, the highest level ever held up until that date. A series of emergency exchanges conducted after Hurricane Gustav, followed shortly thereafter by Hurricane Ike, reduced the level by 5.4 million barrels.
    2005. Prior to the 2008 hurricane releases, the former record had been reached in late August 2005, just days before Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast. Hurricane Katrina emergency releases of both crude oil sales and exchanges (loans) totaled 20.8 million barrels.
    1977. First oil was delivered to the newly constructed SPR, 412,000 barrels of light sweet crude.
    Current authorized storage capacity - 714 million barrels
    Fill status - The SPR completed fill on December 27, 2009 with a cargo that arrived and began to unload on Christmas Day. The cargo was 493,000 barrels of Saharan Blend, a light sweet crude that was delivered to the Bryan Mound site. A sale and drawdown in 2011 reduced the inventory to 695.9 million barrels.
    Current days of import protection in SPR - At the end of CY 2021 (as of December 31, 2021), the SPR’s crude oil inventory was 594.7 MMbbl. This is equivalent to approximately 1,206 days of supply of total U.S. petroleum net imports.
    International Energy Agency requirement - 90 days of import protection (both public and private stocks). In past years, the United States has met its commitment with a combination of SPR stocks and industry stocks. The days of import protection may vary based on actual net U.S. petroleum imports and the inventory level of the SPR.
    Average price paid for oil in the Reserve - $29.70 per barrel

    Drawdown Capability
    Maximum nominal drawdown capability - 4.4 million barrels per day
    Time for oil to enter U.S. market - 13 days from Presidential decision
    Investment to date - About $25.7 billion ($5 billion for facilities; $20.7 billion for crude oil).
    Old_Joe Old_Joe in Other Investing
  • Ping the Board
    This US SPR status from Twitter is from June and you may look for updated data from the IEA. There was also some recent news on changing the law on SPR buys from the current bids-system to buying in the futures markets or with forward-contracts, as appropriate. Realize that the SPR activities are not for profits but to stabilize the US oil supply-demand and prices.
    https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1539195742753116160
    image
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Other Investing
  • Ping the Board
    Hi guys,
    So the strategic oil reserve is being taped 1 mil a day for 90 days. So some questions here....hope you can help. In no special order.....after a few longnecks, what's the point? lol.....
    1. How much can be drawn down before you have to stop?
    2. How much is in the reserve?
    3. I have heard that Australia and Britain also have oil in there. Are there more countries that have some in there?
    4. How long until you must replace the oil?
    5. How?....Is it in the budget or do you just print more money?
    6. Where does the oil come from: OPEC or U.S.?
    7. How often can we do this? Every year?
    8. Who is in charge of it? the President, or others also?
    9. Is it US refined and kept in the U.S.?
    10. Is it kept safe, say, like Fort Knox? Is it on military ground---no terrorists?
    Just some thoughts and thanks in advance for your help.
    God bless
    the Pudd
    Puddnhead Puddnhead in Other Investing
  • Welcome to the Club, JR, A New I-Bond Buyer
    M* JR compares I-Bonds and 5-Yr TIPS with T-Bills/Notes and reaches favorable conclusions under title, I-Bonds Forever? (Well, no, but still good).
    He used 2 long-term scenarios: 1st, since 09/1998 (I-Bond inception) and 2nd, since 01/1995 (when 5-yr TIPS issuance resumed).
    For I-Bonds, he used 2 assumptions - the initial 3.4% fixed/base rate and 0% fixed/base rate (to entirely remove that effect). So, this 2nd scenario only captured the CPI effect and actual I-Bond buyers did better than that bottom line.
    Unsurprisingly, his conclusions were that that the initial fixed/base rate was a give-away for then (1998) new I-Bonds and those did the best. But 0% I-Bonds also kept up with alternatives. He cautions about their limitations (annual limit, non-tradability) and to keep future expectations reasonable. But not to pass up a good deal, he has just now bought I-Bonds for both his wife and him. Welcome to the club JR!
    As has been noted here, these conclusions are not surprising because I-Bonds, and 5-yr TIPS held to maturity, have kept up with $$CPI.
    www.morningstar.com/articles/1108848/i-bonds-forever
    LINK
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Other Investing
  • PSTL. Postal Realty Trust
    +1.
    Crash Crash in Other Investing
  • PSTL. Postal Realty Trust
    +1 hank Just like the seniors who don't want to pay property tax in their exclusive neighborhood because they don't have any children in public school !
    carew388 carew388 in Other Investing
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/10/22
    Really appreciate your opinion. Market rallied recently from softer July CPI number, 8.5% versus June’s 9.1%. Small additions, but nothing radical.
    Sven in Other Investing
  • PSTL. Postal Realty Trust
    @LewisBraham - Agree with your above synopsis. I occasionally stay a few days at a resort in Hilton Head. It is inside a very large gated community along the coast with many private residences as well. A unique experience for me. I am struck by the difference in life styles inside and outside the gates. Inside are private lakes, golf courses, hiking trails, bike paths, roads etc. - all in immaculate condition. It appears they have their own well financed fire, police & public safety departments. There are so many BMWs parked inside you’d think it was a BMW auto dealers’ convention … And, Oh. I almost forgot the tennis courts, swimming pools and easy access to the coastline.
    So where I’m going with this … Is the ability of the very rich to afford their own private enclaves one reason many care not to support public roads, parks, schools and safety? I’ll take it a step further and say many of these “upper crust” individuals can afford to buy a new BMW every year or two if the terrible public roads damage the old one. And, for any trip over 100 miles they’re much more likely to travel by private plane or chopper.
    Just asking. It’s a suspicion I’ve long held. Back to your summation, there are many beautiful governmental / educational structures from the public works programs of the 1930s / 40s standing in our area. Absolutely magnificent.
    hank in Other Investing
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    "Speedometer." Ya... Early in the year, the talking heads advised against bonds. I took from bonds to add to stocks at the highs for the year in TRAMX and PRNEX and PRISX. I'm still underwater, though TRAMX is nearly back to the zero-line by now.
    My sole bond fund is TRP Junk: TUHYX. Still down YTD by -10+%. I've added a bit to my TUHYX pile, buying de-valued, unloved shares. (Cost basis!)
    I'm in retirement, but can afford to invest for the heirs, so the move to overweight stocks doesn't make me itch so very much. Method? Steer clear of bonds, as instructed. But I did not go to ZERO in bonds. Don't put all your eggs in one basket, eh? I'm at 21% in bonds today. Another ingredient in my "method" is to stay overweight in PRWCX. It was down by -12%, now down by -5%. I added to it a couple of times in the past few months. If I'm fortunate, it might turn positive by year's end. We'll see. The expected Recession is technically here, after 2 Quarters of negative growth. But in practical terms, this does not feel like a Recession, yet. I still think things will get worse before we climb out of the present circumstances. Method? Cut losses before they get to be utterly unpalatable, re: my single stock positions. I can't make the Market love the stuff I own. I can sell, and then re-deploy. ...And all of this does not violate my sense of risk-tolerance.
    Crash Crash in Other Investing
  • Tyson Foods Stock Slumps / Chickens on the Rise
    Costco has their giant rotisserie chicken for less than $5. Of course that up front membership fee can be an issue.
    And the hot dogs are still $1.50. Which reminds me of when the new CEO was contemplating raising that price:
    When Costco's current CEO Craig Jelinek once approached Jim Sinegal, then CEO, about raising the price of the hot dog, Sinegal told him, "If you raise the [price of the] effing hot dog, I will kill you. Figure it out."
    https://www.businessinsider.in/retail/news/costcos-founder-once-told-the-companys-current-ceo-if-you-raise-the-price-of-the-effing-hot-dog-i-will-kill-you/articleshow/78240301.cms
    PRESSmUP PRESSmUP in Other Investing
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/10/22
    Sentiment indicators are contrarian.
    AAII Sentiment has been negative most of Q1 and Q2, more so in Q2 and was the worst around mid-June. For its believers, these were the times to buy/add, or at least hold (not sell), as difficult as it may have been at the time. It is now at neutral - sort of non-signal.
    If the market bottom in mid-June holds up, then AAII Sentiment was sending appropriate signals.
    But I just post the data and leave what to do to the readers.
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Other Investing
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Howard Marks - Which Way Now?
    He suggests that rather than in/out or buy/sell, make portfolio adjustments according to own risk level.
    https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-video/market-commentary/insights-live-which-way-now
    Marks suggests investors center on a neutral risk setting (think of a speedometer) suitable for their age, goals, tolerance, etc. He also recommends varying that a bit with one’s assessment of market valuation / dynamics. Therein lies the difficulty.
    Since around the first of the year I’ve tried using a “sliding scale” of sorts - but only with about half the portfolio. The other 50-55% is quite static. Essentially, I try to raise or lower the allocation to fixed income. Raising the fixed component reduces the equity component. Been trimming risk lately. “Neutral” for fixed income is 25%. Was down to only 17-18% a month ago. Has since risen to 21% - less aggressive than earlier, but still substantially overweighted towards risk. Keep in mind that there is also a 50+% (moderate) allocation which remains static other than minor rebalancing.
    There are many ways to skin a cat. If others have some sort of “speedometer” (Marks’ term) I’d enjoy hearing how they implement it. From some of the posts a month or two back some here were ramping up their cash and conservative investments based on “Fed-Speak” and their own macro assessment. In hindsight, that might have had them leaning the wrong way. Points to the difficulty of putting Marks into practice, Lately, mining and some natural resources (not oil) have recovered from earlier year losses. (And the dollar has begun to weaken). Yesterday I trimmed a bit off real assets and bumped up cash.
    Amazingly - PRSIX, a 40/60 fund I watch closely, remains deep underwater at near a double-digit loss YTD despite the market rebound. Individual investors have a nimbleness and ability to react to changing conditions that a large fund does not possess. Than again, TRP never ceases to amaze.
    hank in Other Investing
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/10/22
    For the week ending on 8/10/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (36.7%; above average) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (31.2%; average); bullish became the middle sentiment (32.2%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -4.5% (low). With all Sentiments still in 30s, future flip-flops in ordering are expected. The strong rally from mid-June lows is at an important juncture. Investor concerns included recession/slowdown; inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed/FOMC; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (24+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds down/flat, oil up, gold up, dollar down. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=7&scrollTo=740
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Other Investing
  • Morningstar Devolution
    +1. :)
    Crash Crash in Other Investing
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    Just to update my earlier numbers. TROW fell back a bit from earlier in the day before the close. Closed at $129.87, a gain of 4.17% for the day.
    When I initially posted this thread 7/10 it was $113.68. Buying at that price would have resulted in a total gain thru today of 14.24%.
    The following day, 7/11, I noted it had fallen to $113.10. Buying than would have produced a total gain of 14.83% thru today.
    On 7/13 I noted it had fallen to $110.77 / Buying at that price would have resulted in a 17.24%. gain thru today.
    Of course I did not recommend buying back than. Nor did I buy. There wasn’t really room in my allocation model to hold it in any significant quantity without dumping another holding. (And I like what I already own.)
    hank in Other Investing
  • Tyson Foods Stock Slumps / Chickens on the Rise
    With respect to sweet corn, the prices are indeed much higher than in previous years. The market we use for meat and a few other products is noted for good quality but very high prices: sweet corn the other day was $1.29 PER EAR!!!
    For contrast, the sweet corn from the Safeway chain is locally grown, consistently excellent quality, and typically 50¢ per ear, with frequent sales of 3/$1.00. Over the July 4th weekend they really had a special: 10¢ per ear- limit of 6 ears.
    It pays to shop around, which is very easy using InstaCart. Yes, InstaCart's prices are a little high, but since we're both over 80, avoiding Covid and not carrying heavy grocery bags it's worth it. We typically source groceries from 3 or 4 different stores, including Costco.
    Old_Joe Old_Joe in Other Investing