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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Morningstar Category Revisions, 2025
    Morningstar Category for Funds Definitions (April 2025) can also be found here (download not required):
    https://advisor.morningstar.com/Enterprise/VTC/MorningstarCategoryClassificationUSFunds_April2025.pdf
    PDF Host does seem to be working for me today.
    Each time I access it, I add the site to my security software's "allow list". (I remove it when I'm done, preferring safety to convenience.) I did "allow" it yesterday, so that was not the cause of the problem I was experiencing then.
  • Feds invade Georgia Hyundai facility
    More reporting from the WAPO.
    Building plants to manufacture the batteries and related computing chips for electric cars requires very specific technical knowledge, according to Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, former chief global economist at Ford.
    “You have certain positions that are very, very technical,” said Hughes-Cromwick, now a senior visiting fellow at the center-left think tank Third Way. “These are people who have installed the equipment before. … It’s really ludicrous to think that we’re not going to have foreign-born workers as part of our workforce as we get manufacturing back on our soil.”
    snip
    “We are more than capable of building and staffing those plants, but not instantaneously,” said Chris Nichols, CEO of the Interstate Renewable Energy Council, a group that is eager to see the United States resurgent in manufacturing these advanced technologies. “Just saying we are going to build the plant doesn’t create 500 to 1,000 highly specialized engineers and other workers who happen to be in Georgia.”
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    The Fund’s investments in derivative instruments, specifically options, swap agreements and forward currency contracts (collectively, “Derivatives”) are generally used to reduce exposure to, or “hedge” against, market volatilities and other risks.
    CrossingBridge Low Duration High Income Fund prospectus
    More generally, derivatives can be used to increase exposure to something or reduce exposure. So they can be used to leverage a fund in lieu traditional leveraging - borrowing to buy more of an asset. And they can be used in a variety of other ways including hedging against currency fluctuations.
    There's a whole category of funds that does this: "global bonds (hedged)". 41% of VTABX is in derivatives. Vanguard is not a company that comes to mind when thinking "high risk".
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    Some of the funds recently mentioned have significant portfolio positions in derivatives, including SCFZX 33%, NRDCX 42%, CBLDX 10%. Other mentioned funds have 0% in derivatives including HOSIX, DHEAX , DBLSX.
    I am curious if any other posters are concerned about the % of derivatives held by a given fund?
    I certainly pay attention to them the way I pay attention to securitized debts and CLO's.
    In the case of CBLDX, which I own, I can look up EUR/USD FWD 20250715 and discover that there is an active currency market. Ten per cent doesn't seem too large for me to worry about. It finished 2022 in the black; I have no idea how it will perform in a recession. I also see it is 15% cash, which suits my confirmation bias. I'm not holding it in the expectation that is anything like a CD or money-market fund.
    DBLSX is 52% securitised. I can look up BATTALION CLO XI LTD too. I still don't know what it is, or how liquid it is.
    DHEAX is 87% securitised. How liquid is FIRSTKEY HOMES TRUST or RESEARCH-DRIVEN PAGAYA MOTOR ASSET TRUST ?
    HOSIX is 89% securitised. How liquid is BXHPP LTD or Sound Point Clo Xvi Limited?
  • Morningstar Category Revisions, 2025
    M* Fund Category Definitions published 04/2025, available only in 09/2025 (don't know why M* does this every year!).
    Changes, April 30, 2025
    × Added Global Aggressive Allocation, Global Moderately Aggressive Allocation, Global Moderate Allocation, Global Moderately Conservative Allocation, Global Conservative Allocation, and Miscellaneous Allocation
    × Retired Global Allocation and Leverage Net Long
    × Revised text definitions of Aggressive Allocation, Moderately Aggressive Allocation, Moderate Allocation, Moderately Conservative Allocation, Conservative Allocation, Global Large-Stock Growth, Global Large-Stock Blend, Global Large-Stock Value, Global Small/Mid Stock
    (Domestic allocation/hybrid funds have 75%+ in US securities, global allocation/hybrid funds have (only) 25%+ in foreign securities. This would make most TDFs global, but TDFs are classified separately & there is no mention of US vs foreign securities in TDF descriptions.
    Global stock funds have 25-80% in foreign stocks.
    )
    https://pdfhost.io/v/ZA2TxpMej3_MStar_Fund_Categories_042025
    Note about PDF Host. M* Methodology/Research documents are now for download only (some years ago, they could be linked). M* Library isn't also easily searchable. But if you know the publication date, you can scroll through reverse-chrono order and locate the document. What I do is upload these documents to FREE PDF Host site and link them. Yesterday, some could open these documents, others could not. I also had problems uploading documents yesterday. So, hopefully, PDF Host works better for posters now.
    https://www.morningstar.com/business/insights/research/methodology-documents
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    The Labor department's revision lower of its nonfarm payrolls data for the year through March 2025 by 911,000 jobs from initial estimates was the biggest revision in more than two decades.

    Adding more PRPFX.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Received dividend on Wednesday, put in a limit-order to reinvest it. It's the Foreign Trade Bank of Latin America, based in Panama. BLX. One of my most fortunate choices. I'm not sure if a US rate cut would affect it? Anyone have an idea? My other bank? It's in Puerto Rico. FBP. Is that to be lumped-in with U.S. banks or not? Definitely holding these puppies.
    ......BLX did not fall far enough to meet my limit-price. I canceled and bought ET shares with it. I'm left wondering how the Analysts come up with such an optimistic target price on that one. Stuck in the mud for months. Meanwhile, the Partnership continues to acquire and bolt-on more and more stuff. ORK. 7.5% divvy. But where's the appreciation? My avg. cost basis is $12 and change. It ran up to $21, then fell back. It is a behemoth, truly.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    @WABAC
    I never know what will work, and why I only own funds that are doing well currently.
    Never in my life have I owned CLO, but I held this category for about 20 months.
    In 2025 it was the first time that I held a big % in international bonds; not anymore.
    Any bond fund that I have owned and went down 0.6-0.8%, I sold immediately.
    I'm coming up now on about 15 years of investing in bonds, and I've always found funds that don't lose money, unless risk is so high and I'm out.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    The site works, but it doesn't find this document. I've tried searching the site for Morningstar Methodology, MPRS, and various other terms but haven't come up with a relevant document. Just lots of COVID stuff and lots of M* reports on individual securities.
    The current M* MPRS methodology is available on the M* website at:
    https://marketing.morningstar.com/api-corporate/axiom/ama/v1/research/download/1177471?timestamp=17565052800000500&token=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJkYXRhIjp7ImRvY3VtZW50SWQiOjExNzc0NzF9LCJpYXQiOjE3NTc0NDkyNDV9.9aQf_8CVDlGMFVBc0-43UPZsty9g7XuBNSCAnGOWJ-c
    If that doesn't work (it has an embedded timestamp), look for Risk Score on this page:
    https://www.morningstar.com/business/insights/research/methodology-documents
    I'll read at leisure (31 pages). Too occupied by class readings now that the academic semester has begun.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    https://pdfhost.io/v/E..d~yHtX_MStar_MPRS_102024
    Response received: The document is missing
    If you own a home in an area that is at risk for 100 year floods, it is not safe simply because you haven't had a flood in the past couple of decades that you've owned your home. Likewise, risk to your home does not increase if you're flooded out and have to rebuild.
    A quiescent period leads people to underestimate risk. (So intrinsically risky funds like SEMMX come to be regarded as cash alternatives.) Likewise, an isolated instance of bad luck can lead people to overestimate risk.
    Risk as represented by M*'s risk score is long term risk. If you're concerned about worst case, pretty much any metric will underestimate that. A meteor might crash into your home tomorrow and do much more damage than a flood. The odds are ridiculously low, but the amount of damage a meteor would inflict is pretty close to worst case, if that's what keeps you up at night.
    OTOH, long term conditions (as opposed to recent events) might gradually change. Weather is becoming more unstable and disruptive events are becoming more severe. This sort of change affects long term risk.

    Excellent perspective above from @msf. I think we all tend to think in very short time frames and assume things will always be the same. A kind of deceptive ”time-warp” if you will. So I’ve tried to generate a list of key dates for thought. No doubt AI could have done it much better and faster..
    Years Since …
    Since our planet’s creation 4.5 billion years
    Since the North American continent was created 200 million years
    Since the mass extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million years
    Since the Grand Canyon was created 6 million years
    Since the first Homo sapiens walked the earth 300,000 years
    Since Rome ruled the known world (Pax Romana) 2100 years
    Since the signing of the Magna Carta 810 years
    Since the Dutch Tulip bulb mania 389 years
    Since The United States became a nation 249 years
    Since the opening of a U.S. Stock Market 233 years
    Since completion of the first transcontinental railroad 156 years
    Since the advent of powered flight 123 years
    Since the U.S, Federal Reserve was created 112 years
    Since the first U.S. commercial radio broadcast 105 years
    Since the beginning of The Great Depression 96 years
    Since the end of WWII 80 years
    Since Fidelity Investments was founded 79 years
    Since John Templeton opened his first mutual fund 71 years
    Since the first nationwide color TV broadcast 71 years
    Since Hawaii became the 50th state 66 years
    Since money market funds yielded over 15% 55 years
    Since John Bogle founded Vanguard 51 years
    Since introduction of the first mass marketed home computer (VIC 20) 45 years
    Since Junk Bond King Michael Milken was indicted on corruption charges 37 years
    Since CNBC began broadcasting 36 years
    Since the first ETF was created 32 years
    Since Dow first reached 10,000 26 years
    Since the NYC Trade Center Attacks 24 years
    Since the first IPhone was introduced 18 years
    Since the end of The Great Recession 16 years
    Since Donald Trump nominated Jerome Powell to be Federal Reserve Chair 8 years
    Since the last Presidential Impeachment 4.5 years
    Since the U.S. 10-year treasury bond last yielded under 2% 3 years
    Food for thought. Apologies if this seems trite. Thanks to @equaizer for the correction
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    If you haven't done so already, you may want to read Prof. Snowball's
    recent article titled "Thinking more broadly: Bonds beyond vanilla."
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2025/09/thinking-more-broadly-bonds-beyond-vanilla/
    I own CBLDX. And I might end up with some of the other funds on that list. But I don't know how many of them will perform in a recession since they weren't around for the last one. But there are two. FEMDEX lost -27.6 in 2008 while OSTIX lost -5.5.
    So I set up a query on MFO P using the same criteria as Snowball, minus the great owl designation, but adding a minimum age of 18 years so that I could include results from 2008 in the column display.
    Nor did I restrict the the results except to exclude muni's and money markets. If the fund met the previous capture and correlation criteria I figured they must have been doing some thing right somewhere in the world.
    I wasn't sure how long the funds had to return 4%, so I set it to five years since that was the minimum age he was looking for.
    About half of the funds in the article were multi-sector. Only two made my cut. OSTIX lost 5.5. ENIAX lost 28.1.
    The only flexible income fund to make the cut was NPSRX, which lost 24.4.
    There were six global high-yield funds that made the cut that lost between 16.5 and 28.9.
    And the only emerging market fund was the afore mentioned FEMDEX.
    Well. We can certainly hope that the next recession won't be as bad as the last recession. And I won't try to predict when it will show up.
    It seems to me that focusing entirely on the last five years doesn't account for the risk of recession. I sure hope we don't see rates climb the wall the way they have recently. But if the Fed goes Arthur Burns in 2026, who knows?
    Since I have the results, here are the funds that did the best in 2008 along with their maximum draw down in the last five years:
    OSTIX -5.5, -9.6
    IOBZX -2.9, -8.2
    LCCMX -2.5, -17.7
    THOPX -2.1, -7.7
    CMFIX -0.2, -4
    RYSBX +7.2, -18.7
    It's enough to have me contemplating ye olde mattress safety deposit.
  • Feds invade Georgia Hyundai facility
    WSJ provides a broader societal perspective - https://www.wsj.com/us-news/hyundai-raid-rattles-a-hot-spot-of-growth-in-georgia-d1fcd585?st=BMFs3C&reflink=article_email_share
    Are these the ones that are “eating the dogs… eating the cats” ?
    This is not the first time that the GOP has inked deals and boasted of success, only to be taken for a ride later. Foxconn in Wisconsin was not a whole lot different. None of the promised jobs for locals materialized. This is an example of he GOP's best work and portends how all of the ill-conceived deals revolving around tariff threats will turn out.
    In five years, they will still be blaming Biden for MAGAs ineptitude. Without the slightest hint of credible causation. Just the usual complete lack of personal responsibility.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    If you haven't done so already, you may want to read Prof. Snowball's
    recent article titled "Thinking more broadly: Bonds beyond vanilla."
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2025/09/thinking-more-broadly-bonds-beyond-vanilla/
  • This Day in Markets History
    From Markets A.M. newsletter by Spencer Jakab.
    On this day in 1974, stocks tanked in reaction to President Gerald Ford's pardon
    of Richard Nixon amid fears it wouldn't bring full closure to the Watergate scandal.
    But it was a great time to buy: The Dow surged by 25% over the next year.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    Why not LCTRX? because HOSIX is better within the CLO space. HOSIX got the highest Sharpe > 3 for all funds at Fidelity.
    Why didn't I recommend NRDCX while I like it? Because DT is looking for funds with more history, and it fell 1.6% this year during March-April.
    SCFZX is another good one, but DHEAX beats it for 3 months +YTD. During March-April DHEAX was less volatile.
    Basically, I'm back to HOSIX,DHEAX,SEMIX for DT. If you are not comfortable with CLO, disregard. Beyond that DT should invest based on his risk/reward and goals.
    HOSIX manager changed the CLO % from 64% in 12/2024 to 55% this month. CMBS=25%, RMBS=8.5. Currently HOSIX 30-day sec=6.6%
    I get weekly update. The last one
    CLO: CLOs continue to be the largest segment of the portfolio (~55%). We continue to favor this segment of the
    structured credit market as they allow us to get excess spread via our deleveraging CLO profiles. The average
    floating rate coupon is around SOFR+350bps, which we believe is highly attractive for predominantly investment
    grade exposure. This segment of the portfolio carries no effective duration, which reduces our exposure to
    interest rate moves, especially the long end. We continue to think that the long end is at risk if the Fed cuts the
    front end.
    CMBS: CMBS continues to be we get most of the portfolio’s yield. We have had several successful CMBS exits
    or payoffs over the past few months. We continue to look short maturity bonds tied to high performing properties.
    We prefer higher coupons, but if the property is performing, a case can be made for a lower coupon, lower dollar
    price bond.
    RMBS: This is one of our liquidity buckets. Our Non-QM exposure is about half of our RMBS exposure (~4% of
    the entire portfolio). We will likely continue to us Non-QM as liquidity piece. These are short WAL bonds, decent
    coupons for the credit rating (senior bonds that we buy are AAA rated), and highly liquid. Especially with credit
    spreads this tight, this is one of the areas we don’t mind parking in and waiting for opportunities to come to us.
    We also have exposure to the HECM space. These give us a little more yield and some convexity to the overall
    portfolio.
    ABS: This is the smallest portion of the portfolio. The primary exposure we have here are to the SBA loan
    space. There are a few deals that will be coming to the market after Labor Day weekend, which we will be
    evaluating for potential inclusion.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    Junkster: "Surprised no one has mentioned a fund widely held by the populace here NRDCX. Talk about low volatility with nary a down day"
    I am not sure how many investors even know about this fund. It has only existed for about a year. I took a closer look at it and found it has over 40% of its portfolio in derivatives. It is from an excellent company but it has not really been challenged yet in a tough market. New funds from excellent companies are often great bargains.
    Just about every investor here. Check the archives. It is a niche bond fund - Nordic high yield. Not doing any better than the average domestic junk fund just with less volatility. I am sure there are many happy holders here including me. Not the type of fund you are looking for though. My recommendation to you would be SCFZX or HOSIX. Doubtful though you will get 5% there next year if rates decline as projected, Then again, I wouldn’t buy any fund based on the recommendation of anyone on this board including me. You also need to be diversified by not putting it all in one bond fund as you are not a trader.
    This year bonds haven’t been my thing with my focus and highest positioning shifting to emerging market equity funds.. @Sven deserves a shoutout as he was one of the first here to post about jumping into foreign and emerging market equity funds,
    @PRESSmUp. Great post above on bonds!
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    @yogibearbull mentioned MYGAs is a prior post.
    MYGAs are functionally similar to CDs.
    You could earn a 5+% yield with very little risk (assuming AM Best ratings are accurate).
    2-year MYGA, insurance company rated "A" by AM Best, yields 5.15% ($70K or $100K min. premiums).
    3-year MYGA, insurance company rated "A-" by AM Best, yields 5.45% ($100K min. premium).
    5-year MYGA, two insurance companies rated "B++" by AM Best,
    yield 5.80% and 5.81% respectively ($5K & $1K min. premiums).
    https://www.annuityadvantage.com/annuity-rates-quotes/multi-year-guarantee-annuities/?years=3&sort=guarantee_period_yield&limit=20
  • The September issue has been posted
    Welcome to the September oh-so-totally back-to-school issue of the Mutual Fund Observer at https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/issue/september-2025/!
    Highlights of this issue include:
    • Lynn Bolin examines low-correlation alternatives in "BlackRock Systematic Multi-Strategy (BAMBX) versus BlackRock Tactical Opportunities (PCBAX)," seeking funds that can provide steady 5% returns with minimal correlation to traditional stocks and bonds.

    • His companion piece, "Preparing for an Inflection Point on Interest Rates," responds to recent economic signals, including revised employment data, rising producer prices, and Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole remarks about potential rate cuts. Lynn anticipates sustained financial volatility with higher real interest rates and more frequent debt crises, and walks through portfolio protection.

    • I share a Launch Alert for Franklin Multisector Income Fund, which debuted in the last week of August. The fund resonates with Lynn’s concern about finding investments that are insulated from the probable instability ahead, while at the same time offering the prospect of decent returns while we wait. The literature surrounding it got me thinking about the prudence of looking at income funds that were (a) successful and (b) determinedly isolated from the wobbles of the US market, which led us to …

    • “Thinking more broadly: Bonds beyond vanilla,” in which we launch a systematic search for income-oriented funds that are insulated from the local lunacy. A screen for funds that could invest flexibly, have made 4% or more over the past five years, are uncorrelated with the US bond market, and qualify as MFO Great Owls (a sign of top 20% risk-adjusted returns across a range of examination periods). Sixteen such funds are available to regular investors, a combination of funds that we’ve written a lot about and ones that we’d never heard of.

    • And The Shadow, as ever, tracks down a horde (perhaps a hoard) of industry developments, including a huge number of OEF-to-ETF conversions, two interesting reopenings, and the ongoing flight from funds grappling with climate change. (Pity.)
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    And what low risk are we talking about? Interest rate risk? Sorta a function of duration. Or default risk? Sorta a function of quality of the bonds and the broader business climate. If one defined low risk as short duration and high quality that would lead to a short term treasury and or high investment grade fund no? I see suggestions of funds with higher yields and generally higher yields come with higher risk.
    Yes, gotcha. So far, to me, and given where we are, it's still worth it to reach into Junk for higher yield. I've now heard from SEVERAL of the "expert" talking heads that bond defaults remain low, about 3%. I'm using MMkt to save for a dedicated goal coming up. That money is out of the Market, still earning a virtually risk-free 4+ percent.
    I stand by my recommendation, WCPNX. It's not as utterly tame as some, but I found that it served as extra ballast that I don't need. Duration is 5.48 years. And as a core-plus fund, it is reaching, just a tad, in order to offer you and me a BIT more profit. Is 5.48 years not "the belly" of the curve? (Again: I'm already out of it.)