I'm thinking that I am not alone in eyeballing the portfolio and scratching my head...either in wonder or dismay, in regards to what I see in the rear view mirror.
Anything that stands out? As either a pleasant, or unwelcome surprise? Any thoughts on the new year? Lessons learned?
I'll start....
-Dividend payers lead the way...as they're apt to do, such as in 2011, the yield seekers drove the way forward here. T, VZ, PAYX and RPM all with over 20% gains, with dividend-centered funds and ETFs also having banner years.
-What's gotten into FKINX? This is about the last fund I would expect to see among my leaders. I won't be celebrating too quickly, since rising rates may have their say in 2017. With +16%, it's bested only by VVPSX at +19%. I can't wait to read Vulcan's annual report, since the manager said to stay away, and not put more money into the fund at the beginning of the year. I suppose I can live with that type of bad call.
-The bond funds I chose for near-term cash (Bucket 1), did their jobs admirably. SUBFX, SSTHX, ZEOIX, and PIFZX with performance ranging from 5.56% to 2.24 at the low end...all but one outperforming my core bonds PTIAX, WATFX and DBLTX. Of course...I wondering if there's a lesson I need to learn there?
-VWINX and PONDX do just about what they've always done. Not sure how Dan Ivascyn does it. I think it's magic.
-Not all roses and high cotton though...healthcare decided to take the year off, with VGHCX down almost 9%, but who knows what next year holds. I think HC may idle for a bit until the national HC picture settles down.
Comments
* I'm wary of large cap dividend paying stocks. I think they have been pushed to high in valuation and are at risk for a fall if the next administration pushes for trade wars. I also read somewhere that the $ will continue to strengthen, a bad omen for exports and these global exporting companies.
* I do play on the edges just a little, and I thing pharmaceuticals/HC and financials will have a decent year. Can you say deregulate?
* Volatility will define the year. That's an easy one, so it matters more when you buy then what you buy in 2017. I think a 10-15% pull back is likely by summer, either instigated by global turmoil or a Trump induced war - either with real bombs or financial.
* Oh, and one more prediction, the Buffalo Bills will win the Super Bowl in 2018.
On the decision making side...
I let go of FAIRX and TGBAX...I guess I got tired of waiting.
I began to trust the wisdom of simplicity...I have pared back on the number of funds I own.
Gone are...
MINDX, GASFX, USBLX, BUFOX, PCKDX, USAGX, CSRSX, OAKLX, YACKX, WAEMX.
The trouble is I don't have the confidence in concentrating too much into too few holding....I will reread "Goldilocks and the 3 Mutual Funds" again.
If I had to own just three mutual funds they would be (fingers crossed)... PRWCX, VWINX, and PONDX.
There I said it.
Now if I could only have the confidence that investing was that simple. Hmm...
O.K. maybe a little POAGX... please?
And I'll sleep better knowing I have a little VGHCX under my mattress....
And while I'm at it, it wouldn't hurt if I held just wee bit of Tech...maybe PRMTX or PRGTX or USNQX or FNCMX or...
Have you seen the 30 year historical chart of FSRPX? This freakin' fund rips it, year after year. Obviously I need some for the long haul.
What is not a surprise is how hard it is to sit still, keep it simple and stay the course.
I'm Bee and I am a fundaholic.
Derf
2. That anyone was buying 10-year U.S. Treasuries at 1.37% in July.
3. The escalating exodus away from active managers (some of them very good) to passive investments, which I attribute more to cyclic market behavior (lagging deep value/energy/financials) than to the more commonly cited cost efficiency rationale.
@Bee - LOL -- That topic would make for an interesting thread should anyone want to start one. And a second "FA" perhaps?
I gave 1/2 my nest-egg to Schwab and their robo-portfolio format... done, don't have to think about screwing it up. "Most" of the other 1/2 is self managed in 11 funds that I believe are good long term holdings... done, (don't screw with it Mike). The last 10%, well, this money appeases my addiction to believe I can pull out that extra profit by picking the best sector or fund or stock or knowing when to be in cash or not.
I'm still the smartest investor I know! Now it's time to get out of the way and make money
It will be interesting to see how these robo's work in a declining market. Some better than others ? Does Chuck offer conservative, medium, & aggressive robo platforms ?
Thanks for any answers & your time.
Derf
Yep! You hit on a lot of things I agree with. VWINX, PONDX.... just solid funds. Healthcare....I think there's lots of time to buy it. I also agree with Crash......the market was ambushed, which caused me to pivot quickly.
The New Year ..... well, I believe the markets will run with every word the Big Guy says. Till Congress starts to get in the act. Now, I believe the markets are over-bought and will go higher.
Don't think I've heard of high cotton before....so spill the beans, Big Guy, where did that come from? Also, I see PTIAX is being bantered about on the board of late. Just remember.....it's not PONDX.
Bee, you look a lot like me, you old fund killer, you! Just remember, some day you'll probably buy them back.....lol.
God bless
the Pudd
God Bless the Pudd
Did you establish your Fido IRA with the brokerage option?
Absolutely, brother of mine! Duke insisted, although, I did wine....i.e., I like white and dry....thank you very much.
expatsp: Do not wait for things that are not. Buy a little and watch it a lot.
God bless
the Pudd