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Buy - Sell - and - Ponder November 2017

Hi guys!
Listened to the webinar on Regional Opportunities. Didn't take moved too fast covering a lot of ground. Basically, though, they were saying anywhere but here to put your money in the future. Sold CHTTX.....lagging this year. Added to FJSCX, FMIJX, FTIPX.
God bless
the Pudd


  • edited November 2017

    After some thought, Old_Skeet has decided it best to keep posting the barometer updates under the Buy-Sell-and-Ponder thread rather than reopening the Markets as More thread. The big reason in me doing this is that I wanted to move away from hosting an ongoing thread and to reopen the Markets and More thread would put me back to doing just that. Thank you @Puddenhead for taking the thread over. It is much appreciated and from my perspective you have brought some new and good insights to the thread. But, what really makes the thread is the post of many and not just a few.

    This week Old_Skeet's market barometer closed the week with a reading of 138 and with that moved back into overbought territory. Last week the barometer closed the week with a reading of 143. Generally a higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the S&P 500 Index over lower reading. The three best performing sectors for the Index last week were energy (XLE), real estate (XLRE) and technology (XLK). The only sector found this week, from a technical perspective, as being scored undervalued is staples (XLP). In addition, the Index advanced +0.26% for the week and closed just short of 2588 for a year-to-date gain of 15.59%.

    Within, Old_Skeet's global compass the three best performing etfs, that are followed, were VT, EFA and EEM. With this, the global and foreign etf's out performed the domestics this past week.

    From an equity allocation review Old_Skeet's equity weighting matrix indicates that due to elevated stock valuations I should be position somewhere towards the low range within equities; however, due to a seasonal investment strategy I am currently overweight (what the matrix calls for) by five percent. Within equities, according the a recent Xray analysis, I am (about) ... 60% domestic and 40% foreign ... 75% large and 25% smids ... 40% value, 30% blend and 30% growth. Looking back to the first of the year I was (about) ... 70% domestic and 30% foreign. Because of my use of a good number hybrid and dynamic type funds (that adjust their asset allocation, styles and sector weightings) has made my portfolio more adaptive to the ever changing market climate without me having to throttle it as much as I use to. Currently, Morningstar Portfolio Manager list my year-to-date investment return at 12.17%. In comparison, the Lipper Balance Index is reported by the WSJ year-to-date at 11.86%. I'm thinking, this is not too bad of a return for a 50/50 portfolio that adjust within certain ranges (of course) and from time-to-time +/- 5% from its neutral position. I'm sure there are others out there that have out performed me. But, being in retirement I have now dialed my risk down a good bit within my mutual fund portfolio along with not being as active with position changes as I use to be.

    And, with an overbought barometer reading, I remain in a cash build mode with all mutual fund distributions paying to cash area of the portfolio while I await the next stock market pullback. My next scheduled calendar rebalance is May, 2018 unless market conditions should warrant otherwise.

    Thanks for stopping by and reading.

    Wishing all ... "Good Investing."


  • edited November 2017
    Here is the barometer report for week ending November 10th.

    This week the barometer closed the week with a reading of 146 putting the 500 Index into fair value territory. The three best peforming sectors for the week were Real Estate (XLRE) +3.24%, Staples (XLP) +2.15% and Energy (XLE) +1.43%. However, the Index (SPY) closed down -0.21%. In addition, short interest dropped with the days to cover moving form 3.3 days to down to 2.5 days. From a technical score perspective there are no sectors with undervalued or oversold readings this week. For the last two weeks Staples (XLP) has been scored undervalued but has now moved into fair value range and was up 2.15% being the second best performer.

    The equity weighting matrix indicates that Old_Skeet is currently overweight equities by +3% at this time within his portfolio. Generally, I usually raise my exposure to equities during the late fall and winter months and begin to lighten up (rebalance) come spring based upon a seasonal investment stretegy.

    Additional Comment ... Monday, November 13th:

    There is no spiff position currently engaged at this time. I am looking for a barometer reading of 156 range, or higher, before a spiff position (in the Index) is opened. With this, a good bit of energy within the technicals will need to be worked off before the Index becomes a spiff buy along with an improvement in the earnings feed. If retail sales disappoints this holiday season a fairly good size nearterm pullback could emerge. However, looking out in 2018 I'm thinking the bull continues to run. With this, and at this time, I will be a buyer of a nearterm pullback. For me, patience is warranted.

    Have a great week ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."

  • edited November 2017
    I have updated my November 11th post with an update. With this, I choose to bump the thread to the front of the stack.
  • Just put some "rewards cash" into FMIJX. Weird that credit cards now throw off rewards for investment. Adjusted my retirement (403B/401A) deposits to go to VHCAX & VWENX rather than a target date fund and encouraged the other money to go towards international.
  • Gawd-uh-mighty, which credit card is THAT, please?
  • edited November 2017
    @Crash Fidelity Visa card I think Schwab has a similar one
  • Thank you.
  • Fido Visa is 2% regardless, and I use others that are selectively more than that.
  • Added to Target (TGT) on the 10% beatdown today. I guess Black Friday is coming earlier and earlier.
  • Added to Target (TGT) on the 10% beatdown today. I guess Black Friday is coming earlier and earlier.
    @Mark, I see holiday shopping forecasts are down which caused the Target drop. Pretty big 1 day drop.

    I have a different approach to consumers buying habits. I've been watching FDX for a little while hoping it's price comes down some. My thought and what I've read is this is a play on internet shopping, pretty much riding the Amazon trend without investing in the high valuations Amazon has now. FedEx also dropped today (2.5%) with the holiday shopping forecast but not as much as TGT. FDX has to drop another 9% for my limit order to kick in.
  • Bought VGWLX -Vanguard Global Wellington.
    High quality active management, great diversification and low expense ratio.
  • @MikeM, the TGT buy was an add on to an existing position and may just end up as a trading hold. Your right, it was a pretty big one day drop and I believe that the shares will remain volatile at least in the short term. No doubt Amazon has clout but I just can't see traditional brick & mortar stores disappearing entirely and the Target's in my neck of the woods are always busy. We'll see.
  • Mark said:

    @MikeM, the TGT buy was an add on to an existing position and may just end up as a trading hold. Your right, it was a pretty big one day drop and I believe that the shares will remain volatile at least in the short term. No doubt Amazon has clout but I just can't see traditional brick & mortar stores disappearing entirely and the Target's in my neck of the woods are always busy. We'll see.

    I doubt you're suggesting this but it doesn't actually matter whether the stores in your neck of the woods are busy. What matters are whether stores are busy (or the internet is busy) relative to the market's expectations. I don't have an opinion because I haven't done any research and don't own the stock, but people often overreact to bad short term news so it may very well be an opportunity. I just wouldn't base anything except a very small portion of that opinion on what you can see at your local store.

  • Rolled over 401k to both new global funds at Vanguard.
  • edited November 2017

    Here is the Market barometer report for week ending November 17th.

    This week the barometer closed with a reading of 147 (up one point form the previous week) leaving the S&P 500 Index in fair value. The Index closed down 0.13% for the week at 2579. The three best performing sectors for the week were discreationary (XLY) up 1.27% ... staples (XLP) up 0.88% ... and, utilities (XLU) up 0.54%. Industrials (XLI) scored just barely undervalued this week on a technical score basis.

    Currently, Old_Skeet is just watching and awaiting a pull back (3 to 5 percent) before putting new money to work.

    Have a good week ... and, thanks for stopping by and reading.

    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
  • Hi guys!
    Some additions I have made:
    Added to FUSVX. I believe we're going higher.
    Also, added to PARMX for the January effect. Both are sellable.....may not stay in them.
    Also, added to PARWX. It has a cheap PE and book compared to others in the space. So I will keep this.
    Sold PTIAX. Have enough bonds in better funds.
    Also, added to RAANX (i.e., real estate). Fidelity says this and energy lead in late cycle soooooo ..... I'm trying it.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • edited November 2017
    DCA'ing into ARTFX and FRIFX in retirement accounts and MMHAX in my taxable account. Will continue into 2018.
  • @Puddnhead, fwiw, per this Fidelity report you have energy right but REITS generally do best at the start of the economic cycle, not the end.
  • edited November 2017
    Hey @Puddnhead,

    Are you still doing the weekly portfolio reviews - or were @Slick & I the “end of the road”?
    (“Dead-enders” as a former boss used to call some of us.:))

    Enjoyed the several who participated. Hope more continue to post. Thanks for your effort in promoting the idea.
  • determined to sell some DSENX next week in a Roth just to set aside cash for 2018 child needs, if I can stay resolved

    perhaps premature, but really don't want to be kicking myself when it is needed next summer and the market has slumped under president Pence

    hate moreover to do it in a Roth, but have been running various tax scenarios using Optimal RP
  • edited November 2017

    I do my monthly close on the last Friday of each month with the exception being in December where I use the 31st. My report follows.

    For November Old_Skeet's barometer closed the month with a reading of 145 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is overvalued. The barometer consist of three feeds. A breadth feed, an earnings feed along with a technical score feed. At times other technical indicators are used along with a short interest reading. Currently, short interest for SPY is reported at 2.5 days to cover and currently is not a detractor to the reading.

    The barometer from a technical basis reflects there are no major sectors within the 500 Index being scored undervalued or oversold. For the month the three best performing sectors were technology (XLK), consumer discretionary (XLY) and real estate (XLRE).

    Within my own portfolio I have noticed that my bond duration has fallen from 3.4 years to 3.0 years over the past month. Many may remember my reporting that I have begun to move towards using a good number of hybrid type funds along with some multi sector income funds within my portfolio to make it more dynamic and adaptive to ever changing market conditions. So far, the addition of hybrid funds has now grown to the point where their use has enough influence on the portfolio to make it more dynamic. In addition, based upon a seasonal investment strategy I am overweight equities, at this time by 4%, over what my equity weighting matrix is calling for.

    With the overvalued stock market, as measured by Old_Skeet's barometer, for now, I remain in a cash build mode while I await the next stock market pullback. However, with many of my mutual funds making some sizeable capital gain distributions come December I may reinvest some of this money towards the first of the year. One area I plan to look at is hybrid type funds both (convertibles and multialternative).

    Listed below are what my five year average investment returns have been by sleeve and for two bogeys. The first percent number is the average yearly return and the second number is the sleeve's current yield. Notice, the higher yielding sleeves generally have lower yearly returns.

    Income Area, Income sleeve ... 5.2% ... 3.26%
    Income Area, Hybrid Income sleeve ... 7.5% ... 4.15%
    G&I Area, Global Hybrid sleeve ... 8.4% ... 3.66%
    G&I Area, Domestic Hybrid sleeve ... 9.7% ... 2.95%
    G&I Area, Global Equity sleeve ... 11.4% ... 2.31%
    G&I Area, Domestic Equity sleeve ... 12.7% ... 2.78%
    Growth Area, Global Growth sleeve ... 14.7% ... 0.47%
    Growth Area, Large/Mid Cap sleeve ... 17.0% ... 0.21%
    Growth Area, Small/Mid Cap sleeve ... 13.8% ... 1.71%
    Growth Area, Specialty sleeve ... 11.7% ... 1.18%
    Master Portfolio (as a whole including cash sleeves, equity adjustment range +/-5%) ... 9.6% ... 2.5%
    Investment Portfolio (without cash sleeves, equity adjustment range +/-5%) ... 11.2% ... 3.0%
    Bogey Static 50/50 Index Mix (portfolio with no cash position, rebalance annually) ... 9.0% ... 1.8%
    Bogey Active 50/50 Index Mix (portfolio with no cash position, equity adjustment range +/- 20%) ... 9.8% ... 1.6%

    A recent Morningstar Instant Xray analysis listed my asset allocation as Cash 17%, U S Srocks 31%, Foreign Stocks 20%, Bonds 25% and Other 7% along with the yield being 2.51%. Five years ago the porfolio's yield was in the 3.25% range with the distribution yield being north of 5%. This year I'm thinking the distribution yield will be around 4% which includes interest, dividends and capital gain distributions.

    For those looking for a way to consolidate multiple accounts into a consolidated report I have found Morningstar's Portfolio Mananger a good and accurate way to track investment performance along with other investment and portfolio metrics. Year-to-date both Portfolio Manager and a manual tabulation of account statements are producing the same total return number of 9.6% through Friday November 24th.

    Thanks for stopping by and reading.

    I wish all ... "Good Investing."


    Note: Edited with current yield percent on 11/26/2017 and consolidated statement summary on 11/29/2017.
  • edited November 2017
    Re “I remain in a cash build mode.”

    Maybe a “cash build moat”?

    moat - NOUN, a deep, wide ditch surrounding a castle, fort, or town, typically filled with water and intended as a defense against attack.

  • @MFO Members: Added to my position in ALLY-A, even with a chance of it being called next month. I'm willing to take the risk for the 6.87% yield.
  • Hi MikeM,
    Yeah, the email......I can't find it right now. I deleted it and it's not in the trash. The gist of it was this: with rates rising slowly and measured, this should not be a problem for a while in the real estate space. And if you look at RAANX when I bought in June and July, you can see how the chart is rising in the face of rates right now. Again, we've discussed this fund, you and I,'s not like all the others.....57.3% real estate, 10% about outside the U.S. It has cell towers and cloud centers as well as farms and water rights. And with rates so low, at what point does it matter? That's the question, really. And will it take a year or longer to get there? And if you put it on a chart and look at it from October to now, ..... look at the rise. A tech bump, maybe? Just saying.....
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • Thanks @Puddnhead. The fund didn't ring a bell so I forgot about that exchange. Now I remember. It's done well. I hope it continues going forward. You are right, not your typical REIT fund.

    A lot of what I read is saying tech and financial going forward. Who knows. Back to my 'short'-necks, aka a can Genesee Cream Ale.
  • Hi Hank,
    Yeah, I posted Dukester 3 last week. Got some looks, but that was all. I will bump it to the top of the stack again just to see. I also really liked the postings. It shows how other people think about things and that the way you do things isn't the only way. I try to be open on the board just to draw comments because I know sometimes my thinking can get quite narrow. I think I'm all that and a bag of chips and, really, that's when trouble starts. I see you're raising cash. Nothing wrong with that. As you can guess, I'm still quite bullish, though I do think we're late in the game. Most of my new buys are short term trades. Really, I still think that some good news is not priced in the market, but by early 2018 will be. But 'til on!

    Hi Jafink63,
    Good move! I like new coming in.....managers' best ideas. And, of course, it's Wellington. Enough said.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • Thought I would put my changes I recently made into this thread. Sold MINDX which I have held for over 4 years and had some nice profits in. It is over 24 x PE and felt I really did not need a single country fund for diversification and it may start to level out.. I am probably overdiversified as some had commented on in the portfolio posting threads, and I added to SIGIX, FMIJX and GSIHX with the proceeds. Also added to VWINX and will do more over time. Not anticipating any material changes through year end but taxable account may see some tax loss selling.
  • Howdy folks,

    All aboard for the Santa Claus rally what?

    Actually, I added to FSDAX, PRDGX and PRSCX while buying some ROKU, adding to both ROBO and DIS while cutting back on T and SQM. T was a tax loss while SQM was profit taking in a deferred act.

    Hope everyone is doing well.

    and so it goes,


  • Whew. I have had VZ as an income stock on and off for 5 years, selling for tax losses almost every year, then watching it. come back up. In June, it was down to 44 and change, and I bought it for 53 last December. Sold it today at $52.36 just before the news hit about Trump having asked Flynn to meet with Russians. For once, sold at near 12 month high:) Down to a $500 loss from a loss of almost 5k. May rebuy again next year, will see.
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