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Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD

edited July 10 in Other Investing
https://www.ytdreturn.com/trow/

I’ve been playing around with this website. Not sure who it’s sponsored by. I like it for the ability to pull up all ranges of performance figures for both funds and stocks. Looking at a price chart alone for a stock may not tell the whole story because it doesn’t reflect the impact / significance of reinvested dividends.


(Re caption, please note the punctuation)
:)
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Comments

  • I just bookmarked that little booger. And that TRP quote takes my breath away. A sign of just how deeply we've fallen. Can Fed easing be TOO far away? They will "cry uncle" rather than let the economy tank. So methinks. Are we already in the recession? Always easier to see looking backward.
  • edited July 10
    My adblocker is doing its job on that page. When I hover over the spot where an ad should be, it says "Marketbeat refuses to connect." So THERE'S your source. :). .... oops, fine print at the bottom: BNK INVEST.
  • edited July 10
    It’s a “flaky” site, I’ll agree. Led me to a Facebook sign-in page once. So, I just closed it out completely and than reaccessed it again w/o trouble. If you get it to work, it’s darn handy for searching stock performance. More than I’d expect to find free of charge on the internet today.

    Agree, it’s a mind blowing number for such an esteemed company. However, all the brokerages are down. Blackrock off around 30-35%. I’d be tempted to throw some $$ at it. But not willing to sell anything I now own. Maybe if it falls another 20% …. :)
  • I currently own 2 shares of TROW with a cost basis of $115. It's a tiny amount, but it helps me track the stock better. If it goes down 20%, I'd probably buy 5 or 10 more shares,LOL!!
  • edited July 11
    All asset-managers are down sharply since early-November 2021 peak. May be TROW is among the worst because it is more stocks and OEFs oriented (it is trying to diversify and doing other restructuring) - others are more diversified.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=TROW&compare=BEN,BLK,JHG,IVZ&id=
  • And the so-called 'analyst' ratings (er, "wallflower opinions") are shifting ... UBS downgrades TRP to sell "on the basis of a weak flow outlook driven by a slump in fund performance."
  • edited July 11
    $113.68 this morning. Off about 2%.

    TROW gained nearly 40% in 2021 and around 20% the preceding year. So some “give back” here. But, that must have been a horrific ride down this year for anyone holding an appreciable amount!

    Have started tracking this turkey.
  • beebee
    edited July 11
    As TROW share price potentially slides further, pay attention to it's dividend payout.

    At today share price ($113.51) it is paying a dividend of (4.14%). If they are able to maintain their dividend payout it seems like a good dynamic...income + potential capital appreciation.

    So far their ownership in Rivian has not paid off. Anyone have any idea what else TROW "owns"?

    t-rowe-price-stake-in-rivan-worth-10-billion

    On the side of who own's TROW...many big Financials:

    image
  • edited July 11
    @bee

    Thank you. I also checked that chart. Interesting that D&C isn’t among them.

    Added - being thedeep value” investors they are.:)
  • msf
    edited July 11
    I find "Top Institutional Holders" tables of dubious value. The pecking order correlates with the size of the institution. Vanguard owns a lot of everything because Vanguard is larger than other institutions. That doesn't mean that it's enamored with TROW.

    Edit: The pecking order is significant as it represents the control a management firm has over a particular company. But it doesn't provide a good indication of how attractive the management firm sees a company as an investment.

    As of March 31, The Vanguard Group had $4,227,459,554,000 (i.e. $4.2trillion) AUM.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/102909/000110465922059997/xslForm13F_X01/primary_doc.xml

    The management firm at the bottom of the chart had a mere $328,759,984,000 (i.e. $328 billion) AUM.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764068/000076406822000005/xslForm13F_X01/primary_doc.xml

    Even that "meger" amount is twice what D&C manages: $164,570,139,000 (i.e. $164 billion).
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/200217/000095012322005782/xslForm13F_X01/primary_doc.xml

    Of course one should adjust these figures, restricting them to only AUM of funds that might possibly invest in TROW (e.g. US stock funds, balanced funds, foreign based funds holding US equities, etc.). Still, it is size that matters, and so likely that D&C isn't often found on lists of top ten institutional owners.
  • I'm assuming it would be a major conflict of interest and illegal if PRWCX or TRBCX started buying TROW now !
  • beebee
    edited July 11
    @msf said,
    I find "Top Institutional Holders" tables of dubious value.
    The fact that 73% of TROW is own by so called “smart money” verses small investors such as @carew388 say something.
    Wonder if it’s recent 40% drop in share price was a result of institutional selling verses “dumb money” investor’s selling.
  • edited July 11
    I believe that a fair portion of those institutional shares held by firms such as Vanguard, Blackrock, State Street, Charles Schwab and similar are held in their index ETF's and mutual funds. What that fair portion is I have no idea. The firms may also be holding them in their personal accounts as well.
  • edited July 11
    Good points [email protected] Yes, quite correct that an asset manager’s higher AUM would tend to increase its share of a stock holding. In addition, since a lot of TROW may be held by index funds, an investment in it might not reflect management’s true appraisal of the stock.

    D&C ‘s list of holdings for DODGX published 3/31/22 does not reference any TROW stock. The list may / may not be complete, but appears to cover at least their top 75 holdings. I checked the earlier Annual Report for the same fund and it appears as of 12/31/21 DODGX held 0 shares of TROW.

    Current price TROW $13.10 / Down 2.47%
  • The fact that 73% of TROW is own by so called “smart money” ... says something

    Regardless of whether one agrees with that or not, one doesn't get that datum (73% owned by institutional investors) from a ranking of the largest institutional investors.

    Actually, there is a bit of "noisy" information one can glean from the names at the top of the list. Vanguard, Blackrock, and State Street (notably SSGA) largely manage index funds (as @Mark noted). If these companies represent the smartest of the smart money, that could suggest that the real intelligence is with the individual investors who own those index funds that in turn own TROW.

    I don't believe that, but what else about "smart money" can one get out of this particular ranking? Now if one were to discover (using additional data about the management firms) that a significant amount of active money was invested in a company, say SCHW, that might tell you something.

    As a matter of fact, SCHW has roughly the same institutional ownership percentage as TROW (75% vs 74%), but the makeup of those owners is much different. As with TROW, Vanguard tops the SCHW list, with Blackrock right behind it.

    But SCHW does seem to be owned by some "smarter" money. Next on the list is Wellington Management, anything but an indexing firm. And right behind it is D&C. There you go @hank.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCHW/holders?p=SCHW

  • beebee
    edited July 12
    Backtesting these two stocks (TROW vs SCHW) with PV, nod to SCHW:

    Market Correlation for SCHW = .62, yet had a Max DD of 81% (between 2000- 2003)

    TROW vs SCHW
  • Note that SCHW is much more than an asset-manager. It is broker-dealer, custodian, bank, asset-manager, etc. IMO, it is not a peer of TROW.
  • beebee
    edited July 12

    Note that SCHW is much more than an asset-manager. It is broker-dealer, custodian, bank, asset-manager, etc. IMO, it is not a peer of TROW.

    Your thoughts on a closer peer...JPM?

    Adding JPM to the comparison:
    TROW , SCHW, JPM
  • I've owned JPM, BAC and PRU since the rubble of 2020. But if you're looking for something similar to Schwab, there is BK (Blackrock). For a little more sizzle, I'd look to where the folks with money like to hide it..MS,BX or BAM. Also, all are nice dividend plays. Not sure I'd do anything until earnings on financials provide a bit of visibility this week.
  • edited July 13

    TROW $110.77 this morning.

    My guess is TROW will be a lot higher in a few years - if you have a long term horizon. Asset managers tend to wax and wane with the overall equity market since their earnings are based largely on fees assessed on those invested assets. In a bear market, like now, those assets have declined in worth - reducing fees earned. As some investors flee, it worsens the effect. A double-whammy this time around is that fixed income assets under management (ie bonds) have declined in sync with equities. On reflection, I don’t think these (asset managers) are a good hedge inside an equity heavy portfolio (for obvious reason).

    I’ve been trying to think through the possible effect the bonanza double digit yield on one-year inflation adjusted treasury bonds has had. Certainly, $10,000 isn’t enough to rock the risk markets. But magnify that sum by X number of investors and it has to have had an effect. I’m wondering too how that has possibly impacted the short term muni market?

    I often check the YTD Numbers on BB and they’re beginning to look stark. Last evening:

    DOW -14%
    S&P - 19%
    NAS - 27%

    Suspect we haven’t enjoyed this much drama in the markets since ‘08.
    bee said:

    Wonder if it’s recent 40% drop in share price was a result of institutional selling verses “dumb money” investor’s selling.

    I doubt that. But let’s look at this a different way. I wonder if more individual investors have fled the markets or stopped contributing to their workplace plan? And whether TRP with its stellar history of serving those smaller investors has felt the impact more than some institutions that cater to higher net worth investors?
  • @hank who asked "I wonder if more individual investors have fled the markets or stopped contributing to their workplace plan?"

    I wonder as well. If one replaces the word 'stocks' with 'socks' what percentage of folks would run away from a 20% off sale? But yet here we are.
  • edited July 13
    I wish my 403(b) contributed over the summer, but it doesn't. But in my taxable accounts I've definitely been buying and/or looking to buy.

    Edit: Though I got a healthy dividend and fat LTCG payment at a great time last month, so that's nice. :)
  • @Mark and @rforno: I try to think positively by repeating, « stocks are on sale. » It doesn’t always calm the jitters, but it helps. There is still ample dry powder, and I’m deploying it.
  • Only fund from TRP we have owned for about 20 years is TRAIX. I've paid very little attention to it now.
  • so many good companies down significantly /sp500 mid caps small caps techs [lots more than 70 80%]. maybe good nibble more if have extreme long term horizon [iwm vo voo nvda snow ionq etc]
  • edited July 14
    Cheer up! Other than inverse funds, TROW is the only thing I own or track that gained today. Up 10 cents to $111.63. (I do not own it.) That said, it’s down over 42% YTD.

    For perspective, both PRWCX and PRSIX are down over 14% YTD.


    At risk of being X-Rated …


    image
  • BenWP said:

    @Mark and @rforno: I try to think positively by repeating, « stocks are on sale. » It doesn’t always calm the jitters, but it helps. There is still ample dry powder, and I’m deploying it.

    Smart cookie. I am free to rearrange, but what for? I'm not poor, but I'm always cash-poor. In line with @hank's observation, only one thing that I DO own was up today: Bar Harbor Bank. BHB. The rest of it looks dismal. A mountainous pile of big giant doggy poopies.

    "...hanging on by the skin of his teeth..."
    Bruce Springsteen, "Atlantic City."
  • edited July 14
    rforno said:

    ”I wish my 403(b) contributed over the summer, but it doesn't. But in my taxable accounts I've definitely been buying and/or looking to buy.”

    Yeah - I agree. Long term money that I may never need. My own lifelong predilection is to rather own things than to have unused $$ sitting in cash. Doesn’t always work - as this year demonstrates. Besides using up limited dry powder, it is also possible to “rotate” over time from less aggressive into more aggressive positions.

    In addition to being a great sleep inducer, Howard Mark’s audible version of “The Most Important Thing” has of late nightly served as some needed inspiration …

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