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Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
Just hold on to the ride
Drink lots wine/ weekend relaxation
Keep buying when ItS strikingly low.
You will be very happy 10 yrs from now if no WW3 and global warming won't kill us
This is why, I should add, financial planners exist. A good one can assess your financial situation and risk tolerance and tell you, look your goals are X and you have this much cushion for losses, so you can afford to wait out this volatile market. Or, they can say, you're way overexposed to stocks, given your age and situation. You should dial back your exposure. I presume most people here are self-directed, though.
What makes sense to me about the heightened volatility comes from Bloomberg media reports this evening: (1) There is a liquidity shortage, (2) As a consequence some hedge funds have had to limit or halt redemptions, (3) The ability to make large transactions is now concentrated in a limited number of hands - far fewer than in normal times. (While Bloomberg identified only one hedge fund that has halted redemptions, they seemed confident others have also halted or restricted them.)
I generally try not to allow macroeconomics to influence my investment decisions. But I think it would behoove everyone to pay attention to what’s going on in banking and to the words and actions of government officials here and abroad - in particular the central banks.
Banks Borrow $164.8 Billion from Fed in Rush to Backstop Liquidity
”All told, the emergency loans reversed around half of the balance-sheet shrinkage that the Fed has achieved since it began so-called quantitative tightening — allowing its portfolio of assets to run down — in June last year. And the central bank’s reserve balances jumped by some $440 billion in a week — which ‘basically reversed all the Fed’s QT efforts,’ according to Capital Economics.”
Bair on PBS Frontline - Sheila Bair served as the chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 2006 to 2011.
Expect volatile and market swings off the chart, especially last few hrs /every firm and real estate investors trying squeeze out the last Pennies before market closing
From CNBC: “Stocks rose Thursday as Wall Street grew increasingly optimistic after a group of banks said it would aid First Republic Bank amid the industry's crisis.” CNBC Link
I recall that the Global Financial Crisis of 2007/2008 was much worse.
It felt (to me anyway) that the entire financial system might collapse.
Many financial institutions became bankrupt (notably Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual).
GM and Chrysler also faced bankruptcy and were bailed out after cash
was diverted from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).
The S&P 500 had a weekly decline greater than 20% in October 2008.
I hope to never experience another financial crisis of this magnitude again in my lifetime.
Once is enough!
Surely, Jamie Dimon and the others that went to the aid of First Republic will want something in return. I believe we will see consolidations. CS is still in the toilet. No confidence in that bank's survival. Unless it becomes a zombie-front for the Swiss National Bank, which promised to prop it up.
And the Fed's discount window has already dispensed a record amount in a very short time. Are banks just looking for cheap loans at 3%???
Happy St. Patrick's Day. I'll join the local alumni chapter watching a double-header: Gonzaga men and women, both on tv. GU women vs. Ole Miss. Men vs. Grand Canyon Univ. No corned beef. Tacos, instead. Futures up, slightly.
In retrospect it seems that any idiot could have predicted what would happen when you sold mortgages to people with no income. Few of us, I assume, knew that was going on until the headlines. But people who should have known better still went ahead and loaded up on this junk. This was a solvency crisis as the investments were worthless.
This seems to be much more a liquidity crises, which the Fed can fix. However, it remains to be seen what that will do to inflation, given they have undone 50% of their QT so far. Does a recession become more likely?
Had the government not intervened last weekend, I think the odds of a systemic risk situation would've been significantly greater. But still ... on the whole, for the moment, things are 'dramatic' but not 'existential' like they were in '08. Back then, I was genuinely concerned about the very fabric of the global financial system. Not feeling anywhere that dreadful right now.
If you're invested in good stuff, just turn the TV off and don't look at your account for a few days. Or as I told someone yesterday, take some play money (if you have it) and actually BUY or ADD TO something good to engage in some reverse psychology and reassure yourself that things will get better.
(I've been buying/adding this week myself, as i still put idle cash to work for the long term)
I have been deploying my cash this weeks to short-term bond funds, individual stocks, and CDs. As more T bills mature this year they will invest in intermediate-term bonds. If US dollar continues to fall, we will buy European stocks again. Our EM exposure has been reduced substantially in recent years given the heightened geopolitical conflicts.
And yet inflation is far from being contained and how high a the Fed raises the rate when something seems to be broken right now?
My TIPs fund was up today, too. SCHP.
...And aluminum, green power: NHYDY was up by the tiniest of fractions. But down significantly, lately, along with almost everything else.
...Still too early to see the daily OEF mutual fund prices.
Making way too much sense here:
"The bond market has exactly the opposite view on inflation. It is screaming that inflation is entirely in control and headed down. projected longer term inflation now in the bond market is about 2.1% I admire the confidence of bond traders. But folks tell me it might be that inflation is dead because banking crisis kills growth and inflation. I do not see that in my consumption basket generally speaking."
Was a lot easier at 60 to “bite the bullet” and buy down in 2008 than at 75 today. Nonetheless, I’ve added a bit of risk over past week, perhaps illustrating Franklin’s proverb - “Experience keeps a dear school …”
Diversification paid off Friday from what I can see. Bonds of almost every color held their own or gained. Precious metals surged. Some foreign markets fared far better than domestic. DODEX, for example, was unchanged.