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Anybody Investing in bond funds?

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  • troll alert.
  • Crash said:

    troll alert.

    We can't provide validation.

    But we can provide the attention they crave.

    Let's hope they enjoy this attention.
  • edited June 2023
    Neither of them is particularly pleasant. Gilbert and Sullivan come to mind...
    I've got a little list — I've got a little list
    Of society offenders who might well be underground
    And who never would be missed — who never would be missed!

    There’s the “investor” who never makes a mistake…
    And those whose tirades are really hard to take.

    Those who would tell us that Trump is our saviour…
    Never mind his completely unhinged behaviour.

    Those who "know" that he really was elected…
    Certainly not that fellow who actually was selected.

    I've got a little list — I've got a little list
    Of some who never would be missed — who never would be missed!
    (Apologies to The Mikado)
  • @Sven, @Observant1, Sara DEVEREUX has a feature in the current Barron's. From my Summary, Part 2 (some excerpts also posted earlier by @Observant1),

    Sara DEVEREUX, Vanguard Fixed-Income Head. She joined Vanguard in 2019 from Goldman Sachs/GS. After a terrible 2022, BONDS are doing better in 2023; she wears a button, “Bonds Are Back”. She thinks that the US will have a shallow recession in 2023. Inflation fell from its peak but is still high; the core PCE may be +3.3% by 2023YE, +2.xx% by 2024YE. Many supply-related issues have been resolved, but the demand has to cool to tame wages and inflation. The labor market remains strong, but it is a lagging indicator. Due to many factors now, the unemployment rate may peak at 5% in the next recession. The FED may pause in June to assess the impact of its rapid tightening so far, but rates may go up later, and may remain higher for longer. The times now are opportunities for active bond investors (remember, she is at Vanguard!). She likes portfolios of high-quality bonds of short/intermediate duration with some HY and EM (consider those as equity equivalent); munis are also attractive. HY spreads are tight, but their absolute yields are OK. She is avoiding FR/BL as those are of lower quality. Vanguard funds mentioned are VCOBX (core), VCPAX (core plus), VGIT (Treasuries – intermediate), VMSIX (multisector), VTES (short-term muni).

    I would just note that Floating Rate/Bank Loan category of bond funds, has been doing pretty well this calendar year. I continue to maintain a watchlist of about a dozen funds in the FR/BL category, and everyone of them has positive performance for one week, one month, 3 months, and YTD. The FR/BL category has historically performed well in Flat and Rising Rate Markets, TR performance has a positive trend this year, and rates do not seem likely to fall anytime soon. I have not invested in this category in the last year, but this category is looking promising.
  • From https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/37947/thread

    PIMIX v. PFIIX v. MM
    2 minutes ago ReplyQuotelikePost OptionsPost by yogibearbull on 2 minutes ago

    There will soon be a time to switch from T-Bills/m-mkt funds/ultra-ST bond funds/SVs to short/intermediate-term bond funds (core, core-plus) and multisector bond funds. As noted by others, the yield-curve is inverted and short maturities are working for now, but that will change. Timing may be tricky, but those who are gradually switching won't regret it. After a historically terrible 2022, this year has been much better for bonds. Reinvestments at 4-6% will also cover some mistakes.

    My HY is via multisector bond funds only (except for some VG HY in my 403b; no multisector available there).

    FR/BL are great for rising rates. But when rates are steady or declining, they act just like risky short-term HY (FR/BL are low-rated). That party is/maybe ending soon too.
  • edited June 2023
    Yogi: "FR/BL are great for rising rates. But when rates are steady or declining, they act just like risky short-term HY (FR/BL are low-rated). That party is/maybe ending soon too."

    There is always a risk/reward decision to be made in investing in bond oefs. FR/BL did very well for many years, in the last 10 years, when rates were flat and certainly not rising. As a junk bond category, (most BLs are B rated), I frequently used them in the past, as a "lower risk" option for junk bond investing. When I read the Feds intentions regarding rates, I am not struck with the impression that a rate drop, is very likely this calendar year. On the contrary, I see the Feds raising rates very gradually the rest of the year, and trying to find their happy place for a smooth landing, and trying to keep inflation under control. The beauty about Discussion Forums, regarding bonds, there is often varying opinions about what the market is presenting to an investor as an opportunity. At any rate, I thought this thread should have an option of actually discussing "Bonds", as an alternative to some of the other topics on this thread, that do not appear very constructive!
  • dtconroe said:



    I don't care what an MFO poster experienced at Big Bang. Big Bang is part of the Free Forums system, in which any person can start "their" own Discussion Forum. The person starting that Free Forums site, becomes the Administrator, with the power to create rules of conduct, and can make a unilateral decision to punish/remove any poster on that forum, for whatever reason they choose. I do not have the details available to me, associated with the Big Bang Administrators actions, and I do not think any other poster on MFO, has the details of that action, nor should be forming opinions about its appropriateness/inappropriateness.

    To me, the only thing that is relevant, is that an MFO poster abides by MFO rules of conduct and posting. As far as I know FD has the freedom to post as he pleases at MFO, until the MFO forum decides otherwise.

    Always the level head.

  • edited June 2023
    As I said earlier, I have a watchlist of about a dozen BL/FR funds. Everyone of them are positive for 1 week, 1 month, 3 month, and YTD. "If" I choose to put some money to work in this category, I would consider some of the lower risk options (according to SD and M*). A few examples include PRFRX, SAMBX, MWFLX, etc. TRowe Price PRFRX has a SD of 3.76, an M* Risk Rating of Below Average, TR of one week of .72/one month of .78/3 month of 1.26/YTD of 4.59. Metropolitan West MWFLX has a SD of 3.56, M* Risk Rating of Low, TR of one week of.60/1 month of .79/3 month of 1.77/YTD of 4.94.
  • edited June 2023
    FD1000 said:


    ...

    Dear stillers:
    1) Let me ask you an easy question. Why did you use 3 different names(stillers,Arriba, Albie) on different sites? Did you try to hide something?
    2) Why don't you try to register on BB as stillers? You have no chance with the moderator who knows you for years.
    BTW, the subject of this thread is bond, why not make comments on it?

    Ah, the classic FD/Red Party way: Deny Delay, Deflect.***

    (1) Ah, C'mom man! You've asked that questions several times and I've 'splained the answer to you, well, several times. Memory problems? Or just another example of the above***?

    Or, as Dan Rather once infamously stated, "No Mr (xxx), are you?"

    (2) The Moderator of that forum is a fellow Trumper of yours who has cut you unbelievable slack there since that forum started. Apparently you finally overstepped your bounds netting a 90-day ban, and now need to incessantly push your wares elsewhere for that stretch . (See just about every other forum you've ever participated on.)

    Aside, and "For kicks" as capecod used to say: Given my use of other names in the past, maybe I AM registered there and you just don't know it!

    (3) Well dummy, if you had read the whole thread, you'd have seen that I DID make comments about the OP topic long before you entered the thread post-BB ban.
  • edited June 2023
    @yogibb, I have made the switch already since January this year to increase allocation to intermediate term bonds since. First started on treasury and then corporate bonds using both active and passive managed funds/ETFs. Though I have limited choices in my 401(k) plan. Also invested in a multi sector fund, PIMIX, and ST HY bond, OSTIX based on previously experience with these managers. My bank loan/floating rate bond exposure are limited to PRWCX, but I am watching closely as Giruox makes his moves quickly.

    I continue to maintain a decent exposure to cash equivalents as long as the yield curve is inverted. Given this year’s inflation running near 5%, these cash equivalent is barely able to keep up AFTER factoring out inflation. Nevertheless, there are still better than the past near zero yield with money market. So rotating to the intermediate term bonds is necessary for the bond price appreciation as you noted that Fed’s rate hike is near the end.

    During the March 2020 drawdown, BL/FL funds fell like HY corporate funds, averaging over 10%, and they took close to 6 months to recover. Treasury’s, in contrast, barely dropped at all and end ed the year up several percents as the FED cut the rate to 0.25%.

    A mid-year review from Schwab’s Kathy Jones is enclosed for your enjoyment.
    https://schwab.com/learn/story/mid-year-outlook-fixed-income
  • edited June 2023
    As we've talked through this thread for almost 1 month, the 2 bond funds I have in my conservative withdrawal bucket are both doing as well or better than treasuries since the start of the thread. RPHYX up .46% for the month. SAMBX up .86% in that time. Albeit at greater risk than treasuries.

    edit: 60% of this account is still in treasuries or CDs. No denying they are still a great option.
  • Junk:

    TUHYX. (15.65% of portfolio.)
    5 yr +14.31%
    3 yr: +3.6%
    1 yr: +0.67%
    YTD: +5.87%
    3 mo: +1.41

    Better than my Tips. But I'm holding the Tips, anyhow.

    Other junk of mine: PRCPX and HYDB.
  • edited June 2023
    This bond thread was posted Sunday, May 14. I thought it would be interesting to see how the major U.S. stock indexes have fared over the 25-day period since the post went up.

    Friday, May 12 Closing Averages

    S&P 500 4,124.08

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average 33,300.62.

    The Nasdaq composite 12,284.74.


    Friday, June 9 Closing Averages

    S&P 500 4,298.86 / CHANGE +4.24% since May 12

    Dow Jones Industrials 33,876.78 / CHANGE +1.73% since May 12

    Nasdaq 13,259.14 / CHANGE +7.93% since May 12


    Source for May 12
  • @MikeM,

    I started a new tread on the same topic. Glad to see you are doing well with your bond funds. The timing question on rotating to bond funds is a person decision. I was mostly out of bonds in 2022 and now at half of my target bond allocation, 30%, and it is increasing when T bills and CDs mature.

  • @MikeM...not sure how or where you are calculated RPHYX returns for 2023YTD. But, Morningstar has RPHYX up 2.15% which coincides with my calculations.
  • @davidsherman….not @MikeM, but he was talking ~1 month returns for both RPHYX and SAMBX, I believe (thread started on May 14th).
  • edited June 2023
    @davidsherman, yes, Graust is correct. I just pulled 1 month return from wherever Schwab gets their data. And I didn't mention the consistent trend of SPC, also in this account. I believe also up .8% for the month, 5.2% for 1 year. Not sure how you do it, but the chart is one very consistent trend up since last fall. So, thank you.
  • Thanks for the clarification and I should read the comments more carefully since it is clear upon reflection. Please reach out should I be of service.
  • Recently reduced our equity exposure by ~6-7% and placed those funds into MM and bond funds. Probably within 5 years of beginning portfolio withdrawals and trying to find a personal comfort zone with volatility as we are in a good position for retirement at this time.

    Most of you can probably take this as a contrarian signal and load up on equities!!:)
  • edited July 2023
    @Roy, think you are doing the right thing by reduce equity risk as you approach retirement. Five years out is not far away. Shifting more to balanced/allocation funds is another way to increase bond allocation. My high yield and bank loan funds have done well this year; YTD is about 5%. Likely these funds will have a solid year by year end. The rest of short term high quality bond funds are moving along well yielding 5%.

    Watching if the market will broaden out more to smaller caps and cyclicals. If the recession strikes this year, bonds will serve as a ballast when stocks will fall.
  • On April 17th, I simulated the @davidsherman contest with some mad money, by investing in both RSIVX and OSTIX. So far, they are neck ‘n neck.
  • edited July 2023
    I’m seeing more and more red flags in my reading. But the bears have been hurt so far this year. Just don’t know. Latest red flag is some commentary from Pimco - one of many.

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/pimco-harder-landing-recession-global-economy-inflation-interest-rates-2023-7

    My knowledge & interest in cash investing? … I thought the recent tread ”CD Renewals” was about recorded music until I looked.:) - But do like diversified low cost bond funds / ETFs if they’re not taking a lot of credit and rate risk.
  • 3 meanings of CDs

    1. Music CDs - becoming extinct
    2. Bank CDs - hot
    3. Credit market CDS (credit default spreads) - also hot
    etc
  • Sven said:

    @Roy, think you are doing the right thing by reduce equity risk as you approach retirement. Five years out is not far away. Shifting more to balanced/allocation funds is another way to increase bond allocation. My high yield and bank loan funds have done well this year; YTD is about 5%. Likely these funds will have a solid year by year end. The rest of short term high quality bond funds are moving along well yielding 5%.

    Watching if the market will broaden out more to smaller caps and cyclicals. If the recession strikes this year, bonds will serve as a ballast when stocks will fall.

    The largest chunk by far of our investments have been in TRAIX/PRWCX for the past ~16-17 years, so the recent move to reduce some of those holdings was a bit difficult because of the emotional attachment as well as the FOMO on future equity gains. We are now roughly 50/50 equity/fixed income---still sufficient equity exposure for growth and nice dividend income from the MM/bond side. Our equity exposure had already been down the past 1 1/2 years as some money my wife inherited had been placed in fixed income rather than TRAIX/PRWCX.

    Would be interested to know at what age many of you started reducing equity exposure as you neared retirement? I am 60 very soon.
  • edited July 2023
    Just one model based on age. Take with a grain of salt.

    Age-based portfolio model / https://www.schwab.com/retirement-portfolio

    A quick search of 5 or 6 other websites seems to pretty much find agreement with the model I linked. There are many other factors to consider of course. I linked this simply as just one example of what is out there. Personally, my 403B was 100% in global equities until about age 50 when I began sharply pulling back.
  • Would be interested to know at what age many of you started reducing equity exposure as you neared retirement? I am 60 very soon.
    I had been shifting to more bonds and less equities between 2020-21. Then the spam hit the fan.

    I know you love PRWCX. Me, too. In spite of myself, it has grown to 39 percent of my total right now. I try to follow the "rules of thumb," but not with much effort. Those "rules" don't apply to our house in many ways.
    I'm at 50 US stocks.
    8 foreign stocks
    35 bonds.
    ...The rest is "other" or cash held by the funds. Oops, I do own a few single stocks, now.
    I'm 69 later this month.

    Everyone's situation is different. I'm investing primarily for my primary heirs: my son and my wife---his stepmother. He is all of 30, come October. She just turned 50. And she will go back to the Philippines when I'm gone. Much cheaper to live there. We already have a new house already built on the property where she grew up. It was necessary. The old one just fell down into decay.

    One of my biggest priorities is to continue to grow the portion of the portfolio that is not tax-sheltered. Just to increase the amount that is easier for her to get at without all the blessed, lovely, amazing, beautiful, fart-brained tax rules. (I know that INHERITED IRAs are a horse of a different color.)

    In the meantime, I'm not adding any stocks from foreign lands. I have seen the brokerage report to me that a chunk of the dividends "were taxed and held at the source." NHYDY. I don't want to be paying foreign governments, when my portfolio can make money HERE, and because of our specific circumstances, we've owed zero tax for many years, anyhow. I'll hold onto Norsk Hydro. It's been good to me, though the share price has lately dropped. Aluminum. They even mine their own bauxite. And green energy. And they're trying trying trying to buy a Polish recycling outfit. One of the largest aluminum concerns in the world.

    Bond funds: yes. I bought junk at just the wrong time. With patience, I'm seeing it rise, now. The dividends are better than the safer stuff, so I'm riding it back up. My foray into ETFs has been less than satisfactory. I choose-----against my best interest, maybe---- to stay with TRP. Their trading platform and rules can suck spooge, I've found out. ("If you're not going to let me use the "Good Till Canceled" option, you maybe perhaps ought to LET ME KNOW!!!!!.... I.T. doink-brains.) .... With a $5k minimum to trade non-TRP funds, I'll stick with the best of TRP's mediocre bond lineup. So, when I sell my ETFs, that will go into PRSNX. What I already own bond-wise (in T-IRA) is TUHYX and PRCPX.

    Break a leg! My junk is performing very well. But maybe you don't want to own junk. LOTS of places have better bond funds than TRP. I hope you find them. :)





  • edited July 2023
    Roy said:

    The largest chunk by far of our investments have been in TRAIX/PRWCX for the past ~16-17 years, so the recent move to reduce some of those holdings was a bit difficult because of the emotional attachment as well as the FOMO on future equity gains. We are now roughly 50/50 equity/fixed income---still sufficient equity exposure for growth and nice dividend income from the MM/bond side. Our equity exposure had already been down the past 1 1/2 years as some money my wife inherited had been placed in fixed income rather than TRAIX/PRWCX.

    Would be interested to know at what age many of you started reducing equity exposure as you neared retirement? I am 60 very soon.

    @Roy,

    I'm the same age as you. I started reducing my equity exposure gradually in 2020 or so.
    Last year the stock market "helped" to decrease my equity allocation a bit! :-(

    Portfolio on 12-31-2019
    73% Stocks
    22% Bonds
    5% Cash

    Portfolio on 06-30-2023
    66.0% Stocks
    19.4% Bonds (DOXIX & TIPS)
    14.4% Cash (MM funds)

    I periodically review Vanguard and T. Rowe Price target-date fund portfolios for reference.
    Mostly, I pay attention to the overall stock/bond split. I don't attempt to replicate these target-date funds.
    For example, I don't have dedicated exposure to global/foreign bonds, convertibles, or preferred stocks.

    Portfolio allocations for Vanguard Target Retirement and T. Rowe Price Retirement funds are listed below.
    Please note that T. Rowe Price offers three distinct target-date fund series.

    VTTVX on 05-31-2023
    US Stock - 32.8%
    Foreign Stock - 21.7%
    US Bond - 28.9%
    TIPS - 4.2%
    Foreign Bond - 12.4%

    TRRHX on 05-31-2023
    US Stock - 39.11%
    Foreign Stock - 18.44%
    US Bond - 25.88%
    Foreign Bond - 10.45%
    Cash - 5.31%
    Convertibles - 0.51%
    Preferred Stock - 0.25%
    Other 0.05%

    VTHRX on 05-31-2023
    US Stock - 38.2%
    Foreign Stock - 25.3%
    US Bond - 25.5%
    TIPS - 0.0%
    Foreign Bond - 11.0%

    TRRCX on 05-31-2023
    US Stock - 46.16%
    Foreign Stock - 21.83%
    US Bond - 18.32%
    Foreign Bond - 7.97%
    Cash - 4.80%
    Convertibles - 0.58%
    Preferred Stock - 0.30%
    Other 0.04%
  • edited July 2023
    Roy, the nice thing about investing is the fact that very seldom you can find exceptional funds which defy common concepts such as low expense + index do best over a longer time.
    PRWCX is one of them. In the past I used PIMIX(2010-2017), SGIIX,OAKBX,FAIRX(2000-1 to 2009).
    I started reducing my portfolio in 90+% in stocks, in 2013, 5 years prior to retirement. Most of the bond portion was in PIMIX. Since 2017 (retirement=2018) I have been using about 90% bond OEFs, but I'm a unique bond OEF trader.
    I think 50/50 is a good choice. I would select between the following funds:
    Moderate allocation=PRWCX
    More conservative=WBAIX/WBALX....CFTAX(Tactical-increase/decrease stock %)...FASMX
  • At 63, my wife and I determined we had reached our “number,” and decided to reduce our equity allocation while both of us were still working. Since we were aware stocks could drop by 50%, we figured to reduce our possible equity loss by allocating 35% (potential 17.5% drop). Of course we missed out on some equity expansion these last 7 years (now 70 and retired 6 yrs) but we slept better.
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