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Real world measurements of risk. What was the funds loss in 2022? Using Portfolio Visualizer you can also get maximum drawdown and worst year since 2016. Also SD. And tons of stuff I don’t understand.
If you own a home in an area that is at risk for 100 year floods, it is not safe simply because you haven't had a flood in the past couple of decades that you've owned your home. Likewise, risk to your home does not increase if you're flooded out and have to rebuild.
A quiescent period leads people to underestimate risk. (So intrinsically risky funds like SEMMX come to be regarded as cash alternatives.) Likewise, an isolated instance of bad luck can lead people to overestimate risk.
Risk as represented by M*'s risk score is long term risk. If you're concerned about worst case, pretty much any metric will underestimate that. A meteor might crash into your home tomorrow and do much more damage than a flood. The odds are ridiculously low, but the amount of damage a meteor would inflict is pretty close to worst case, if that's what keeps you up at night.
OTOH, long term conditions (as opposed to recent events) might gradually change. Weather is becoming more unstable and disruptive events are becoming more severe. This sort of change affects long term risk.
Excellent perspective above from @msf. I think we all tend to think in very short time frames and assume things will always be the same. A kind of deceptive time warp if you will. So I’ve tried to generate a list of key dates for thought. No doubt AI could have done it much better and faster..
Years Since …
Since our planet’s creation 4.5 billion years
Since the North American continent was created 200 million years
Since the mass extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million years
Since the Grand Canyon was created 6 million years
Since first Homo sapiens walked the earth 300,000 years
Since Rome ruled the known world (Pax Romana) 2100 years
Since the signing of the Magna Carta 810 years
Since the Dutch Tulip bulb mania 389 years
Since The United States became a nation 249 years
Since the opening of a U.S. Stock Market 233 years
Since completion of the first transcontinental railroad 156 years
Since the advent of powered flight 123 years
Since the U.S, Federal Reserve was created 112 years
Since KDKA aired the first U.S. commercial radio broadcast 105 years
Since the beginning of The Great Depression 96 years
Since the end of WWII 80 years
Since Fidelity Investments was founded 79 years
Since John Templeton opened his first mutual fund 71 years
Since the first nationwide color TV broadcast 71 years
Since Hawaii became the 50th state 66 years
Since Junk Bond King Michael Milken was indicted on corruption charges 66 years
Since money market funds yielded over 15% 55 years
The site works, but it doesn't find this document. I've tried searching the site for Morningstar Methodology, MPRS, and various other terms but haven't come up with a relevant document. Just lots of COVID stuff and lots of M* reports on individual securities.
@WABAC I never know what will work, and why I only own funds that are doing well currently. Never in my life have I owned CLO, but I held this category for about 20 months. In 2025 it was the first time that I held a big % in international bonds; not anymore.
Any bond fund that I have owned and went down 0.6-0.8%, I sold immediately. I'm coming up now on about 15 years of investing in bonds, and I've always found funds that don't lose money, unless risk is so high and I'm out.
Comments
https://pdfhost.io/v/E..d~yHtX_MStar_MPRS_102024
https://pdfhost.io/v/E..d~yHtX_MStar_MPRS_102024
Excellent perspective above from @msf. I think we all tend to think in very short time frames and assume things will always be the same. A kind of deceptive time warp if you will. So I’ve tried to generate a list of key dates for thought. No doubt AI could have done it much better and faster..
Years Since …
Since our planet’s creation 4.5 billion years
Since the North American continent was created 200 million years
Since the mass extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million years
Since the Grand Canyon was created 6 million years
Since first Homo sapiens walked the earth 300,000 years
Since Rome ruled the known world (Pax Romana) 2100 years
Since the signing of the Magna Carta 810 years
Since the Dutch Tulip bulb mania 389 years
Since The United States became a nation 249 years
Since the opening of a U.S. Stock Market 233 years
Since completion of the first transcontinental railroad 156 years
Since the advent of powered flight 123 years
Since the U.S, Federal Reserve was created 112 years
Since KDKA aired the first U.S. commercial radio broadcast 105 years
Since the beginning of The Great Depression 96 years
Since the end of WWII 80 years
Since Fidelity Investments was founded 79 years
Since John Templeton opened his first mutual fund 71 years
Since the first nationwide color TV broadcast 71 years
Since Hawaii became the 50th state 66 years
Since Junk Bond King Michael Milken was indicted on corruption charges 66 years
Since money market funds yielded over 15% 55 years
Since John Bogle founded Vanguard 51 years
Since the U.S. Pet Rock craze 50 years
Since the first mass marketed home computer (VIC 20) 45 years
Since CNBC began broadcasting 36 years
Since the first ETF was created 32 years
Since Dow first reached 10,000 26 years
Since the NYC Trade Center Attack 24 years
Since the first IPhone went on sale 18 years
Since the end of The Great Recession 16 years
Since Donald Trump nominated Jerome Powell to be Federal Reserve Chair 8 years
Since the last Presidential Impeachment 4.5 years
Since the U.S. 10-year treasury bond last yielded under 2% 3 years
Food for thought. Apologies if this seems trite.
The current M* MPRS methodology is available on the M* website at:
https://marketing.morningstar.com/api-corporate/axiom/ama/v1/research/download/1177471?timestamp=17565052800000500&token=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJkYXRhIjp7ImRvY3VtZW50SWQiOjExNzc0NzF9LCJpYXQiOjE3NTc0NDkyNDV9.9aQf_8CVDlGMFVBc0-43UPZsty9g7XuBNSCAnGOWJ-c
If that doesn't work (it has an embedded timestamp), look for Risk Score on this page:
https://www.morningstar.com/business/insights/research/methodology-documents
I'll read at leisure (31 pages). Too occupied by class readings now that the academic semester has begun.
I never know what will work, and why I only own funds that are doing well currently.
Never in my life have I owned CLO, but I held this category for about 20 months.
In 2025 it was the first time that I held a big % in international bonds; not anymore.
Any bond fund that I have owned and went down 0.6-0.8%, I sold immediately.
I'm coming up now on about 15 years of investing in bonds, and I've always found funds that don't lose money, unless risk is so high and I'm out.