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raising cash

Howdy campers,

Hope you're all doing well. Raised some more cash today. Please note that I raised quite a bit back after the Ides of November and recently have been shifting assets to my momentum play in the metals. Between the trade war, Hong Kong, Brexit, slowing globalism, and crazy, things are way to dicey for any sort of risk.

and so it goes,

peace,

rono

Comments

  • Hi rono what is your favorite Cash vehicle? just wondering may get it for Mama's portfolio. We just placed it in MM at fidelity
  • Brexit, slowing globalism, and crazy, things are way to dicey for any sort of risk.
    Maybe this is just what a wall of worry looks like in a zero interest rate, high liquidity world. Some day the dam will burst and there will be a major downturn in the stock market....much more than last December's blip. Its just not clear to me if that day has already come or if it is weeks, months, or years away. Time will tell!
  • edited August 2019
    hopefully no down turn for 22 months [average recession last] ...lots volatile for the next 12 months in market i would imagine,...DCA maybe best to go slowly, don't unload all your powder/keep your guns dry
  • I wonder what @rono means by "crazy"? Could that possibly be a code-word of some kind?
    ;)
  • I would buy bonds at this moment instead of using cash. Practically all bonds (except for high yield) are doing very well now and YTD.
  • things seem way to dicy to avoid risk

    keep guns dry is a fully new image, and never a bad idea
  • Howdy,

    By raising cash, in my case, at price, it's either to my sweep account or Spectrum Income which I like as a parking place.

    Is this a perfect 'wall of worry'? Sure. It's also a perfect growth medium for the blackest of swans. feh. rono's almost 71 and doesn't need this shit.

    Yeppers, Crazy is a Crazy does.

    and so it goes,

    peace,

    rono
  • DavidV said:

    I would buy bonds at this moment instead of using cash. Practically all bonds (except for high yield) are doing very well now and YTD.

    That's great investment rationale..... They are doing well now so let's buy! LOL
  • Buy low, sell high. If only I could get out of my own way.;)
  • After today junk bonds will be less than 1% from all time highs. Junk went to all times highs in early February and the S&P followed a few months later. After a brief decline in both markets junk again went to all time highs with the [email protected] following a few weeks later. I would think if junk makes all time highs in the next week/month the [email protected] will soon be at a time highs again.
  • Junkster said:

    After today junk bonds will be less than 1% from all time highs. Junk went to all times highs in early February and the S&P followed a few months later. After a brief decline in both markets junk again went to all time highs with the [email protected] following a few weeks later. I would think if junk makes all time highs in the next week/month the [email protected] will soon be at a time highs again.

    What a great thesis. I'm sure the junk market is a perfect leading indicator for equity markets. LOL
  • @JoJo26: It will obviously come as a surprise to you, but it is possible to disagree with someone without being a total snot. The difficulty is that it takes a bit of thought, subtlety, and consideration for others, and some of us don't seem to possess the necessary resources for that.
  • edited August 2019
    JoJo26 said:

    Junkster said:

    After today junk bonds will be less than 1% from all time highs. Junk went to all times highs in early February and the S&P followed a few months later. After a brief decline in both markets junk again went to all time highs with the [email protected] following a few weeks later. I would think if junk makes all time highs in the next week/month the [email protected] will soon be at a time highs again.

    What a great thesis. I'm sure the junk market is a perfect leading indicator for equity markets. LOL
    Obviously no such thing as a “perfect” indicator. Some market mavens much smarter than me swear by the junk bond market as a leading indicator for equities. If you have never heard of this you must be new to the game. I have never been convinced but it has in 2019 (and previously noted) and more importantly it lead stocks out of the Great Recession bottoming in December 2008 and then hitting all times highs in 2009 far in advance of stocks. In fact, junk bonds outpaced the [email protected] from its December 2008 bottom through 2012.

  • @junkster thanks for sharing your thoughts on this. I'll admit that I know very little about junk bonds so I always appreciate your inputs on this. Is there a good ETF to follow in order to track the overall performance of the junk bond market? Not looking to buy here just interested in following it as an indicator
  • edited August 2019
    MikeW said:

    @junkster thanks for sharing your thoughts on this. I'll admit that I know very little about junk bonds so I always appreciate your inputs on this. Is there a good ETF to follow in order to track the overall performance of the junk bond market? Not looking to buy here just interested in following it as an indicator

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV

    This is how to monitor junk bond performance as it is a daily total return indicator. Meaning dividends are included. You can click on various time periods. If you click on “max” going back to 1986 you can see like stocks, it has been one fairly steady uptrend over the years. To get a feel for intraday action you can watch ETFs ala JNK or HYG to name just a few. But looking at their charts much beyond intraday isn’t very revealing as they are not a total return index.
  • @junkster. perfect! thanks very much. yes I see your point. we're within 1% of the highs now.
  • Here is a recent comment by the Fundstrat Global Advisors managing partner and head of research Tom Lee. It reminded me of the comment @junkster recently made about the same topic.
    High yield corporate bond prices are surging, which is sending a bullish signal for stocks....“The high yield market leads stocks,” Lee said. “We have written about this in the past and it’s evident when looking at high yield around 2009 - it rallied even as stocks fell and that divergence marked the bottom.”
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-junk-bond-market-is-sending-a-bullish-signal-for-stocks-153816252.html
  • Davfor, that is an astute observation on the part of Mr. Lee.

    While I no longer watch CNBC (I cut the cord), when I did have it, I was always impressed by Mr. Lee's insight. Unlike a lot of "experts" who are (usually) perma-bulls, Mr. Lee was usually a bull --- but laid out the well-thought-out rationale for his positions each time, whether bullish or cautious. In my opinion, his observations & inclinations hold a good deal of merit...
    davfor said:

    Here is a recent comment by the Fundstrat Global Advisors managing partner and head of research Tom Lee. It reminded me of the comment @junkster recently made about the same topic.

    High yield corporate bond prices are surging, which is sending a bullish signal for stocks....“The high yield market leads stocks,” Lee said. “We have written about this in the past and it’s evident when looking at high yield around 2009 - it rallied even as stocks fell and that divergence marked the bottom.”
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-junk-bond-market-is-sending-a-bullish-signal-for-stocks-153816252.html
  • edited August 2019
    Hi @Derf,

    Back in the 4th quarter of 18, I begin to reconfigure my portfolio going to my new asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity. This required me to reduce my equity allocation by 10% and raise cash and my income areas by 5% each. In doing this, I moved in baby steps and did not complete the process until sometime during the spring of 2019. So, no I did not buy the December pullback as I was a net seller of equities due to the reconfiguration process of my portfolio's asset allocation during the 4th and 1st quarters.

    However, buying pullbacks is something that I have done in the past mostly through the purchase of special investment positions. And, as the stock market recovered I trim my spiff position back booking the gains.

    Today, I do much the same; but, I now mostly target equity dividend type funds as my spiff over capital appreciation funds. In this way, I can collect dividend coupons should I have to wait out a stock market recovery.

    My last spiff position that I opened back on August 6th is still open and in the money. I'm thinking that it will hit my strike price and I'll be out of it sometime during the 4th quarter. My targeted return is to net 2%, or better, the same as my money market mutual funds are paying over the past 12 month period. So, if it should hit the strike price then I'd make the same 2% by being invested for only a few months rather than a full year. Do this a couple times a year and I'll make 4% to 6% possibly 8%, or more, from time to time, on turnning the spiff through out the year.

    Take care ...

    Old_Skeet
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