Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi guys, It's an old drill but maybe some knowledge can be gained.....so your largest 3 holdings......and on a pullback...where would you add? It can be anything....and why......that's the good part really. I will start. I hate when that happens. I feel like the first dummy in line.....lol. 1. VWINX 2. FXAIX S&P 500 3. FSPHX Where to buy tech anything......I think it's the future. God bless the Pudd
In retirement now. Unless the sky falls, I'll stick with them. I'm not even drawing dividends yet, let alone principle. (Principal?)
Where to find tech? I will let the fund managers do that kind of work for me.
Markets are playing the same game that Icarus lost. If there's a pullback, I'll be happy that I'm 56% in bonds. Already, on bad market-days, I smile to see how my portfolio held up, compared to the different other funds that I track.
Stocks? EPD, SO, VZ, CNI in *very* significant amounts for many many years, dripping.
on big drop I would buy more of the first
tech is always the future
2. FXAIX S&P 500
Probably buy more 3> 2 >1 for retired acct...
For us 15+yrs until retired buy more of 1 and 2.
We have been adding more vti and vpccxand vanguard 2045 lifecycles funds in our private acct past few months
My 3 largest holdings are PDI, PCI along with MCD & PEP tied. I'd add to any of them along with most of my single equity holdings. As for fund specific picks it would depend on which ones suffered the most but probably USMV, ICLN and MGGPX. Honestly dunno, we'll see when the time comes.
In event of a pullback I’d rebalance over time by taking future retirement distributions from the portfolio area suffering the least damage (not necessarily any of these three). If worse than a “pullback”, I’d pick up the crumbs, go back to the drawing board and try to make sense of the situation.
Tied for #2 = ZEOIX, FMIJX
Tied for #3 = PGIRX, VWINX, AKREX, FBSOX
Add to highly volatile holdings in a significant downturn = probably PDI and BGSAX.
It presently makes up a little less than 50% my total portfolio...it keeps bread on the table and allows the remaining investments to hopefully grow over time. Since I consider this pension/annuity as a "bond" like holding, I try to position the rest of my portfolio (the other 50%) in three categories:
-Long term growth/appreciation,
-Intermediate term growth/income and
-Short term income.
Long term growth/appreciation holdings tend to be more volatile in the short term, but provide an opportunity to offer a future source for income (10 years from now).
Intermediate growth/income holdings offer the potential for growth over the next 5-10 years with a bit less downside risk (at the expense of upside potential) as well as a source of income (5 years from now).
Short term income holdings are held to supplement immediate income needs that my pension/annuity (others have Social Security) won't cover in the short term (1-5 years).
These four categories have shifted in percentages over the years. I began this process 10 years ago. At that time my pension/annuity made up almost 66% of my total portfolio. It now stands at around 45%. This is due in part to it's spend down (it has a cash value upon death so I can track its present day value) as well as the growth of the other assets in the other categories.
I attempt to stay within the 12% tax bracket and at age 60 I am now blending both Roth and Traditional IRA withdrawals to keep my taxable income at the 12% threshold. These withdrawals are coming from three main sources: Cash (MMF..I use SPRXX), PTIAX, and THOPX.
Q: If anyone who uses Merrill Edge platform I'd be interested in what you have found works well as a cash position. I am new to Merrill. These short term income holdings make up about 25% of my mutual fund holdings.
My intermediate growth/income holdings will supplement income in the intermediate term (5-10 years) and hopefully appreciate in value. These holdings include PRWCX, VWINX, VMVFX, FRIFX, BRUFX, and they make up about 40% of my mutual fund holdings.
The remaining 35% is positioned in long term growth funds which include POAGX, PRMTX, PRGSX, FSRPX, FSMEX, PRHSX, VHCOX, VHT, and PRNHX.
I realize @Puddnhead was asking for three funds. Instead of listing three fund, I thought I would list funds that fall within these three categories (LT funds, IT funds, and ST funds).
Hope that is helpful to others.
3- looks like I have 4 funds tied for 3rd, all about the same at 10% each. AKREX, DSENX, FMIJX, GPGOX.
Not sure what I would do on a pull-back. I might be more incline to hold steady on funds and add to individual stocks.
FBALX - Fidelity Balanced
AUENX - AQR Large Cap Defensive Style Fund C
FSUTX / FRIFX / FWRLX
As each of the Fidelity funds earns 1K over the initial investment, I sell that amount and add it toTGUNX until that is equal to those Fidelity funds. Then I will start to build another fund, the current plan is to diversify into a non-U.S. fund. A pull back just slows the process.
We plan on retiring 5 yrs from now. I’m retired military plus disabled veteran. No kids, so we plan on having a good time spending what we’ve saved. Haven’t decided when to take Social Security.
Top holdings in order of portfolio value
BAM (Brookfield Asset Management)
Dominion Energy Reliability Investment (DERI) Notes (2.7%, >$50k)
HCYAX (Hilton Tactical Income)
AKREX (Akre Focus Fund)
VRSK (Verisk Analytics)
AWK (American Water) Note: buying up smaller municipal water/wastewater operations, local communities increasingly getting out from future pension liabilities and infrastructure upgrades
BFGFX (Baron Focus Fund)
If we get major down draft will increase investments into:
HCYAX - investment team has been around, experienced downdrafts, need them at the helm if things get wonky
BAM - infrastructure, distressed credit, renewable power, real estate
AWK - always need clean water / wastewater, not exposed to international issues
BFGFX - if things get real wonky will look for this team to pick up bargains on what I refer to "2020, NOT 1995 companies", in other words, companies that are growing in this economy not yesterdays
VTTHX and VTWNX (Vanguard Target Date)
TIEIX (TIAA Equity)
Roths and Taxable Accounts:
- Few weeks back I learned about a fund I didn’t know existed in Price’s fixed income stable, PRSNX. Appears slightly more conservative than RPSIX where I’ve long parked about 15% for stability. So shifted everything out of RPSIX into it. Has a “hot” manager who’s been at the helm a number of years (since inception I think). It’s also a lot smaller than RPSIX (good). Hopefully, manager will decide to hang around. Seems to invest directly in securities, whereas RPSIX invests in other T.Rowe funds. Little did I know the dark swan would grow and consume markets as it has the past couple weeks or that rates would plunge. As a consequence, PRSNX has held up much better than RPSIX since buying it. (Better lucky than good).
- Also nibbled on an equity index fund last week after a brutal down day - PIEQX. A lot appealed to me about that particular index. Keeps 25% in Japan with exposure to the Yen - which is considered a “safe haven” currency. Japan’s been dragging for decades - so is possibly at more reasonable valuations than sky-high U.S. And Europe’s been depressed relative to the U.S. for a long time now (like a full decade). With rates so low relatively speaking I’d rather own a fund like this than cash or most bonds. I was “sure” PIEQX would keep falling - and so had planned to DCA in over coming weeks. But so far it’s gained a bit since opening the small spec position.
- Looking at PRFDX as another spec - but waiting. Based on its 10% drop so far this year, it must be significantly exposed to banks - which are getting killed by the falling rates. 10-year Treasury was nearing 0.90% earlier today. It’s all about trying to prop-up the market until November. If 0% doesn’t work (doubt it will), you’ll see helicopters dropping $100 Franklins by early fall (the reason gold is soaring). The Dollar weakens seriously at some point.
On inflation - There’s not enough according to the Fed. Yet a good article in yesterday’s NYT focuses on how out of reach housing has become for middle and lower income families. Nationwide problem really - but more so in California - with SF being “ground-zero”. I’m not too “deep”, but my shallow brain tells me that if a significant % of the working public can no longer afford a place to live because the cost of housing has so outdistanced their pay - that meets the definition of inflation. I think it harkens back to the issue of wealth distribution. But mention of that is always greeted here with shouts of “politicizing”. Henry Ford wasn’t being “political” when he decided to pay his workers a living wage. He knew his cars would sell better if workers could afford to buy them.
The virus? I’ve never seen hysteria like this. It’s human nature and a characteristic of today’s media to hype emotionally charged issues. So to some extent that’s happening - and understandable. But shame on CNN and the rest. OK - Coronavirus is much more serious than the media-hyped toilet paper shortage of the 70s (which led to folks wiping store shelves clean of paper products) - but the hysteria is still nuts. Heading south for a respite soon. Will worry a lot more of other travel calamities that could happen than of catching / dying from the virus (do fear they might cancel the flight home because only 5 people showed up).
Borrowing a shot here of Ed Studzinski’s closing imagery in the March Commentary. Doubt Ed could have foreseen the degree of panic that would soon envelop markets and the world. The words of FDR stand even more poignant today.
( Signing out - Hilton Head in sight.)
I had a few limit orders pull their own trigger last week. One was adding to my gold play, IAU the day it decided to have a substantial drop. Up 6.5% since, so yea for me. Had 2 small stock purchases kick in also, a new add, Bausch Health BHC and added to a long time holding in Visa V .
Also started a position in NHMAX just before the drop. High yield munis have held up quite well through this turmoil. They have gained in fact.
I'm not inclined to buy any equity funds at this time. I think I'd rather buy when things start rising and when emotion and fundamentals look better, not when the knife is dropping. If anything, I'd put even more into IAU going forward. I think the yellow stuff is going to have a good year.
IRONY: - Few weeks back I learned about a fund I didn’t know existed in Price’s fixed income stable, PRSNX. Appears slightly more conservative than RPSIX where I’ve long parked about 15% for stability. So shifted everything out of RPSIX into it. Has a “hot” manager who’s been at the helm a number of years (since inception I think). It’s also a lot smaller than RPSIX (good). Hopefully, manager will decide to hang around. Seems to invest directly in securities, whereas RPSIX invests in other T.Rowe funds. Little did I know the dark swan would grow and consume markets as it has the past couple weeks or that rates would plunge. As a consequence, PRSNX has held up much better than RPSIX since buying it. (Better lucky than good).
Taking my cue from hank, I moved a big slug, back in 2019, from PRSNX into RPSIX. Until lately, the dividends were higher in RPSIX. I've got 27.9% of portfolio now in RPSIX. It certainly has not performed terribly during his downturn. PRSNX is indeed doing better, and I'm 21.61% in that fund. My other bond fund is the one I'm still "manually" growing: PTIAX. What I mean by that is that I'm still adding new money to PTIAX. In the others, I'm simply letting the dividends accrue. PTIAX is now 8.37% of portfolio.
Unless the bottom really falls out, we are still good. Wife works. Even with higher monthly bills, we're happy where we are. That's the main thing, so I'm told.
And so it goes,
I'm not looking at the panic stocks but at the changes we're going to see brought about by the virus. For example, retail. There are a LOT of peeps that have never bought something online or only did a little. Now they are choosing/having to and the vast majority are going to discover - they like it. The winners are those retailers with a full internet presence and delivery. Delivery services. The losers? brick and mortar that hasn't adapted and most anyone that doesn't deliver like many sit down restaurants or stores at the mall. Malls. Travel anything is dead but eventually will return. Mass gatherings are dead [oh please dear God have Trump keep having his mass rallies].
While video conferencing and all sorts of remote communication are raging right now, you'll see the same thing happen. Many that try it per force, will like it. This includes all sort of 'hunker down' stocks for streaming entertainment.
I'd be curious about all your thoughts. Please note that I am not hardly thinking about being at this time.
and so it goes,
I'll probably still hold on to my old world dividend growth stocks along with my income producers but any new money will likely go into the above.
The disruptions list is too long to readily consider to post a small list.
Your observations are correct.
We all know folks who have golden hearts and willing to do anything to help, etc.
But, we also know too many folks who have problems with common sense, critical thinking and forward planning (except for a scheduled appointment). The type, for those who live in the wintertime states, amounts to still not grasping the concept of blowing snow across the interstate highway, with enough vehicle traffic; will cause black ice and dangerous driving.
Speaking with some like this, who watch tv and know about about COVID; they sometimes will make a few comments or have a question (a, what do you think).
Using Michigan as an example. If one draws a 150 mile radius from the state capitol of Lansing, there are numerous large universities with "Abroad Study" programs. The majority of these students (think Italy) have returned to Michigan. Are all of them really free of "cooties"? Michigan does not yet have any positive virus tests.
So, the question(s) I've had for the borderline planners; is what do you have planned if your community had it's first positive virus confirmed via local tv the next morning as you sip your coffee.
Other areas in the U.S. already fully understand local impacts.