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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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Thoughts On The Market

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Comments

  • Bloomberg Front Row Grantham interview (3 weeks old) -



    Based on Jon’s summary above, I suspect Front Row interview is likely duplicative of the Fox Business video posted above.
  • edited February 2022
    You're probably correct.
    Mr. Grantham has been warning of a "superbubble" since January.
    He's also been bearish for a long time.
  • Hmm.

    One thing I have done learnt over the years is when the wise owl speaks, you might want to listen.

    Couple tings:

    Per recent Rosie/tweetie:
    "For the first time on record, the Fed is embarking on it's first tightening campaign with the Dow, SPX, Nasdaq, Russ2000, all trading below their 200 day trendline. And the rate hikes haven't even started yet. Good Luck to all long-only equity investors"

    And from watching the Barrons broadcast/interview with Mr Grantham...he mentioned breadth..while the indexes are kind of holding up, beneath the surface it's a "X-Large, street burrito, post bathroom visit, El-Grande flush" is the way I would put it to paraphrase.

    We shall see.

    Good Luck to all,

    Baseball Fan
  • Saw Grantham’s interview on Barron’s roundtable this morning too. Same bearish message.
  • edited February 2022
    Following discussion with much interest. It occurs to me that while Grantham may or may not be 100% “correct”, his views can be included as part of one’s ongoing thought process and help us arrive at intelligent decisions. Had a wonderful college class in the late 60s where much attention was paid to “synthesizing” - forming judgements from different, sometimes contrasting opinions or observations.

    “Synthesis suggests the ability to put together separate ideas to form new wholes of a fabric, or establish new relationships: putting together ideas and knowledge in a new and unique form. Can build a structure or pattern from diverse elements, potentially creating new meanings.”

    If interested, link below will pull up a cool diagram (and discussion) of Bloom’s ctitical thinking hierarchy. Double-click on illustration to highlight.

    LINK to Source.

  • edited February 2022
    Hi @hank
    The graphic diagram should have stayed in the post, IMHO, too; to ENTICE everyone to read and save the report.
    However, one of the best links at MFO......ever.
    WHY ?????
    For those who are thinking of investing and those who are investors; no matter how long in the investing seat, this is a MUST READ. One may also inject these ideas into their personal lives, to continue to improve themselves.

    I'm reminded of 40 years of work with electronics/computer based systems interfaced with electo-mechanical devices, that had "burps" and phone calls with engineers explaining a circumstance and what was discovered. The discussions were many times based around the phrase, "that shouldn't be able to happen". But, critical thinking was always involved in a "fix".
    Kinda reminds one of the markets into which we invest our hard earned monies, for whatever reason established.
    Critical thinking should always be involved, no matter how many "great pundits" one has observed or read.
    ADD: your post could be a separate post inclined to the brain/emotional side of investing, which is discussed periodically here, mixed inside of threads
    Thank you.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • edited February 2022
    @Catch22 - I felt posting the diagram might have appeared condescending. So as you noted pulled it. Folks here are all well educated and have been exposed to critical thinking models.:)

    It’s the synthesis I think sometimes gets overlooked. It’s not necessary to totally agree or totally disagree with Grantham or anyone else.

    From Grantham (and collaborated by other sources) I take away …

    - Equity markets, especially in the U.S., are richly valued

    - Some foreign markets, including Japan and EM, may offer better long term prospects

    - Euphoria / speculative fever among retail investors is very high (as demonstrated across a number of markets) - often a bad omen

    - A reminder that bear markets, once begun, have the potential to last a long time and try the patience of even the best investors


    (A link to said article / chart appears in my previous post.)
  • Mike Wilson predictions, just like many other experts, are pretty bad, see (link).
  • edited February 2022
    The diagram from @hank's link. Tagging @catch22.
    https://www.psia-nw.org/wp-content/uploads/Blooms_Taxonomy-600x516.jpg
    (Crap, I thought the image itself might appear, not just the link.)
    It makes perfect sense, of course. And the process reminds me of similar charts and metrics along the way, which were more subject-specific, in my school DAZE.

    It also calls to mind that business labelled as "iNtuition (sic) in the Myers Briggs universe. For the record, iNtuition is my "dominant function." I can cut to the heart of the matter and not be able to explain very well how I got there to anyone else. It's not just a hunch, a feeling; it's synthesizing and being able to apply tools/insights/patterns in new ways. Creating new information I had not been aware of, before. The Bloom item is excellent stuff.

    So, Grantham is super-educated and knowledgeable. Maybe if the Markets had been left alone without Fed and Gov't intervention, Grantham would be more right than wrong. But ... When you cry "wolf" ALL the time, it wears thin.
  • @Crash, use that .img URL in the MFO Image tool.
  • @Crash, use that .img URL in the MFO Image tool.

    @yogibearbull A-ha! OK, thanks.

  • @hank
    I wasn't directing my thoughts regarding this topic (your link) and Mr. Grantham. My comments are strictly related to the premise of your linked article.
  • I'm a terrible speller I'll admit ! Did the proof reader miss rentention in the yellow ? Maybe it's a new word ?
  • beebee
    edited February 2022
    @Derf

    Another misspelling -

    Rentension = When their is too much month at the end of the pay check and rent is due...rent tension.
  • funny, that.
  • edited February 2022
    +2 / That’s hilarious. Thanks @bee:)

    I’m almost inclined to think that was done intentionally somewhere along the editing / publishing road - for what purpose one might only speculate. My spell-checker seems to want nothing to do with “rentension.”

    “This article appeared in the the Summer 2010 issue of the NW Snowsports Instructor, which you can download from this website here: https://www.psia-

    Possibly a dim-witted or unhappy employee pulling a “snow-job” on Snowsports?

    I’ll toss out an updated model and see if anyone can find a misspelling in it. I hope my point about drawing from a variety of opinions and projections and than charting your own course isn’t lost. I cannot remember a single time when all the articles in a copy of Barron’s viewed the outlook for different investment assets in the same way or all the business executives & money managers interviewed on Bloomberg over a 24 hour period were in agreement. So if one can’t form their own independent judgments and act on those they’re in a lot of trouble.

    (Since they couldn’t spell retention, they shifted to “remembering“ second time around.)
  • edited February 2022
    I suppose for some readers the switch to gerunds is helpful and maybe more immediate and less abstracted. All seems handwavy if not frankly dim. Worse, creating is not the same as synthesizing, nor remembering like knowledge. Analyzing should be spelled US-style, depending.
  • edited February 2022
    Thanks for the analysis @davidrmoran.

    There are many different published critical thinking models. Highly educated as you and this board are it was perhaps an insult to you and others to reference those models, as everyone here has been exposed to critical thinking skills in one form or another. Apologies to you and others that may have felt so insulted by anything I posted.

    Creating, synthesizing? Shall we narrow this down to a squabble about word meanings? Do you disagree with my overarching point that as investors we need to read and consider a variety of viewpoints about market dynamics (some of them seemingly condictory) and than arrive at our own judgment regarding how to invest?

    Thanks for the input.
  • edited February 2022
    Everyone learns from different presentations and models, in their own way(s). There are surely some here who will benefit from this presentation. There are also those who have little exposure to this process.

    From the movie, August Rush: "The music is all around us, all we have to do is listen."

    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • From the movie, August Rush: "The music is all around us, all we have to do is listen."
    Good analogy. BTW, August Rush is one of my favorite movie.
  • edited February 2022
    Putin tells Ukrainians to lay down arms and go home. Some military action has taken place (10 pm EST) in the eastern oblasts, of which Putin claimed to be independent from Ukraine.
    CNN live news feed........continuous update, newest reports at the top of the page. Scroll down a bit to read stream, and continue scroll for earlier news.
    Time frames will be indicated (in minutes) since initial post.
    NOTE: the global equity markets are not happy at this time (10:30 pm, EST)
    ***UN holding a special meeting now, but only words are available, the last time I checked.

    ADD: A portion of Putin's broadcast on Russian TV.............

    "Now a few important, very important words for those who may be tempted to intervene in ongoing events from the outside," Putin said. "Whoever tries to interfere with us, and even more so to create threats to our country, to our people, should know that Russia's response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences as you have never experienced in your history. We are ready for any development of events. All necessary decisions in this regard have been made. I hope that I will be heard."

    Lastly, for this evening; he (Putin) is indeed insane; a madman. Choose your own similar expressions.

    Good Evening,
    Catch
  • edited February 2022
    megalomaniac without a conscience. just like a certain orange u.s. president. Thanks for the news link, Catch.
  • @Crash Excellent thoughts on the market.
  • This nicely sums up my current thinking about the stock market:
    “It will be extremely difficult for central banks to manage a situation where inflation is rising, but growth is also in danger,” Fidelity International market strategist Carsten Roemheld said by phone. “This is not a good environment to expect a quick recovery for stocks.”
    Stagflation
  • @davfor. spot-on, sadly.
  • Mortgage credit, which has stayed calm and barely positive during the YTD storm, is showing some weakness now, with IOFIX's blowout of the last two days leading the way.
  • edited February 2022
    davfor said:

    This nicely sums up my current thinking about the stock market:

    “It will be extremely difficult for central banks to manage a situation where inflation is rising, but growth is also in danger,” Fidelity International market strategist Carsten Roemheld said by phone. “This is not a good environment to expect a quick recovery for stocks.”
    Stagflation
    From your link: “The effects of recent events can therefore rightly be described as stagflationary -- rising prices with declining economic activity,” said Thomas Boeckelmann, head of portfolio management at Euroswitch, drawing parallels with the malaise that hit equity markets in the 1970s.

    Yes, I recall that period of stagflation. Sometimes referred to as “The Bell-Bottom Blues”
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