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YTD: I had already 2 roundtrips of several weeks each, in January and March to mid-April, all in HY Munis. Last week, I started roundtrip #3, and invested back at 99+% all in bond OEFs. Unfortunately, I can't discuss what funds I own because it's part of my proprietary system. My portfolio is very concentrated, as long as I can find 2-3 funds that I like, I'm in.
You began a 90 day "sabbatical" from the BIG BANG! Investors forum less than 12 hours ago. I'm shocked (shocked!) since I thought you would temporarily refrain from posting while on sabbatical. Then again, you must heed the urgent need to mention your superior proprietary system for the 1,000th time. I hope you feel better now that you've got this off your chest!
You began a 90 day "sabbatical" from the BIG BANG! Investors forum less than 12 hours ago. I'm shocked (shocked!) since I thought you would temporarily refrain from posting while on sabbatical. Then again, you must heed the urgent need to mention your superior proprietary system for the 1,000th time. I hope you feel better now that you've got this off your chest! Sabbatical
You began a 90 day "sabbatical" from the BIG BANG! Investors forum less than 12 hours ago. I'm shocked (shocked!) since I thought you would temporarily refrain from posting while on sabbatical. Then again, you must heed the urgent need to mention your superior proprietary system for the 1,000th time. I hope you feel better now that you've got this off your chest!
I don't care what an MFO poster experienced at Big Bang. Big Bang is part of the Free Forums system, in which any person can start "their" own Discussion Forum. The person starting that Free Forums site, becomes the Administrator, with the power to create rules of conduct, and can make a unilateral decision to punish/remove any poster on that forum, for whatever reason they choose. I do not have the details available to me, associated with the Big Bang Administrators actions, and I do not think any other poster on MFO, has the details of that action, nor should be forming opinions about its appropriateness/inappropriateness.
To me, the only thing that is relevant, is that an MFO poster abides by MFO rules of conduct and posting. As far as I know FD has the freedom to post as he pleases at MFO, until the MFO forum decides otherwise.
So, I clicked on the "Sabbatical" link above but it states I don't have permission to access that thread.
Is that a mandatory or self-imposed 90-day "sabbatical" from BB? And what's the scoop on it?
If it's self-imposed, I'd give it a shelf-life of maybe 90 minutes. If it's mandatory, sadly, MFO will feel the pain of his increased babbling here.
BTW, I checked his site for the gory details, but despite 22 different threads there, none of which appear to have posts made by any poster other than him (just 22 threads of him effectively posting to himself), there appears to be no mention of his BB 90-day "sabbatical" there. Should I also check on Truth Social?
Following forum "rules"/"guidelines" is important, here and elsewhere. As a multi-site poster, I try to compartmentalize those. I have also dropped some sites that bothered me.
So, I clicked on the "Sabbatical" link above but it states I don't have permission to access that thread.
Is that a mandatory or self-imposed 90-day "sabbatical" from BB? And what's the scoop on it?
If it's self-imposed, I'd give it a shelf-life of maybe 90 minutes. If it's mandatory, sadly, MFO will feel the pain of his increased babbling here.
BTW, I checked his site for the gory details, but despite 22 different threads there, none of which appear to have posts made by any poster other than him (just 22 threads of him effectively posting to himself), there appears to be no mention of his BB 90-day "sabbatical" there. Should I also check on Truth Social?
So, I clicked on the "Sabbatical" link above but it states I don't have permission to access that thread.
Is that a mandatory or self-imposed 90-day "sabbatical" from BB? And what's the scoop on it?
If it's self-imposed, I'd give it a shelf-life of maybe 90 minutes. If it's mandatory, sadly, MFO will feel the pain of his increased babbling here.
BTW, I checked his site for the gory details, but despite 22 different threads there, none of which appear to have posts made by any poster other than him (just 22 threads of him effectively posting to himself), there appears to be no mention of his BB 90-day "sabbatical" there. Should I also check on Truth Social?
Imposed by chang and he deleted those posts.
Thanks Mona and thanks to the other poster who PM'd a reply to me.
Wow! 90 days in the BB cooler. Heaven help MFO and all other sites he frequents during that stretch. Except of course his own site, where nobody else posts.
In all seriousness and no disrespect to anyone including FD. Anytime I read about a fund Manager's proprietary system, I put it in the category of CEOs blaming a soft quarter on the weather or future growth from overseas markets.... meaning me takes my monies and goes elsewhere.
Sara Devereux, head of fixed income at Vanguard, discusses Treasuries, corporates, munis, and more in the current issue of Barron's (subscription may be required). Select excerpts are below.
"Given our economic forecast, we favor a high-quality tilt. That’s Treasuries, municipal bonds, and investment-grade [securities]. But there is also an opportunity in riskier parts of the market—high yield and emerging markets—where we are going to have a selective approach."
"Another reason that people like Treasuries, and why we like them, is they are the purest diversification play if you have a portfolio heavy in equities. If we’re headed into a recession, typically these bonds will rally, but it also means credit risk is rising, which means corporate bonds can lag behind Treasuries in a rally. Corporate bonds will have more correlation to the equity market."
"The third area where we are seeing good flows is municipal bonds. Last year, the muni market saw record outflows because investors had the unique opportunity to tax-loss harvest [sell losing stock positions to offset taxable gains]. That selling drove an overshoot in valuations to the cheap side. And this was in stark contrast to the fundamental value, which is strong: Over 70% of muni debt is rated AA or higher."
Hank, if you think that my system is too funny, I welcome you to dive a bit into it(link). Several did and doing very well. The whole idea is to find great risk/reward funds, small AUM is a plus, an uptrend is a must + owning only 2-3 funds. In the last several years it's mostly bond OEFs. These funds eventually get discovered. I held PIMIX for about 7-8 years, then came IOFIX. HY Munis have always been a part of it.
Hank, if you think that my system is too funny, I welcome you to dive a bit into it(link). Several did and doing very well. The whole idea is to find great risk/reward funds, small AUM is a plus, an uptrend is a must + owning only 2-3 funds.
FD - Just a reaction to your use of “proprietary”. It sounds as if you can’t share your approach on a board dedicated to sharing and helping one another. But perhaps I misunderstood your intent. Sorry if I offended you.
I can’t argue with your idea that investors do best with “great risk/reward funds”. I’d maybe expand that to “great risk/reward opportunities”. Might be a fund. Might be a stock. Might be a bond. Might even be a particular asset manager. Would I ever suggest such here? Unlikely. Too much chance I’d make a bad call and help drive someone else to financial ruin. So at least two of us are reluctant to state where we think investors should currently put their money. But for different reasons.
Glad you’re having a successful year. Wishing you continued success.
Banned from BB for 90 days, he will need an alternate forum to many times, each and every day, spew his condescending, self-aggrandizing crap. And sadly for MFO posters, this will be his likely spot for the duration of his 90-day stretch.
No surprise his likens himself via parallel acronym to his true god. Funny how he used to boastfully post daily about his god but has duly STFU about him over the past months/years as the buffoon charts paths to incarceration in multiple jurisdictions.
@Sven, @Observant1, Sara DEVEREUX has a feature in the current Barron's. From my Summary, Part 2 (some excerpts also posted earlier by @Observant1),
Sara DEVEREUX, Vanguard Fixed-Income Head. She joined Vanguard in 2019 from Goldman Sachs/GS. After a terrible 2022, BONDS are doing better in 2023; she wears a button, “Bonds Are Back”. She thinks that the US will have a shallow recession in 2023. Inflation fell from its peak but is still high; the core PCE may be +3.3% by 2023YE, +2.xx% by 2024YE. Many supply-related issues have been resolved, but the demand has to cool to tame wages and inflation. The labor market remains strong, but it is a lagging indicator. Due to many factors now, the unemployment rate may peak at 5% in the next recession. The FED may pause in June to assess the impact of its rapid tightening so far, but rates may go up later, and may remain higher for longer. The times now are opportunities for active bond investors (remember, she is at Vanguard!). She likes portfolios of high-quality bonds of short/intermediate duration with some HY and EM (consider those as equity equivalent); munis are also attractive. HY spreads are tight, but their absolute yields are OK. She is avoiding FR/BL as those are of lower quality. Vanguard funds mentioned are VCOBX (core), VCPAX (core plus), VGIT (Treasuries – intermediate), VMSIX (multisector), VTES (short-term muni).
In this week’s Barron’s (”Up & Down Wall Street”) Randall Forsyth cites two veteran bond traders, 89 year old Dan Fuss & Louise Yamada …
“Spoiler alert: These veterans are both cautious now, with a strong preference for short-term Treasury bills.”
Forsyth’s tune changes week-to-week, so don’t take it too seriously. But the overall tone this week is that we’re into the early stages of a decades-long rise in interest rates (and a bear market in bonds). That supposedly explains the caution of the two veterans cited. It is also stated that - “Over two-plus centuries, U.S. longterm rates have oscillated around an average of 5% …”
Thanks @Observant1 and @Sven for helping keep this thread on the tracks.
In this week’s Barron’s ”Up & Down Wall Street” Randall Forsyth cites 2 veteran bond traders, 89 year old Dan Fuss & Louise Yamada -
“Spoiler alert: These veterans are both cautious now, with a strong preference for short-term Treasury bills.”
Forsyth’s tune changes week-to-week, so don’t take this too seriously. But the overall tone this week, anyway, is that we’re into the early stages year of what will me a decades long rise in rates. (bear market for bonds). That supposedly explains the caution of the two veterans. It is also noted that l”Over two-plus centuries, U.S. longterm rates have oscillated around an average of 5% …” [snip]
I read the Barron's article you referenced. Mr. Forsyth stated: "we thought it instructive to touch base with two market veterans who were present at the birth of the previous long-term cycle to get their thoughts on where we might be headed." I immediately thought of Dan Fuss before reading the next paragraph.
Anyway, Fuss and Yamada are both cautious as you have mentioned. They are concerned about the government's finances and suggest positioning for higher yields in the future. Both market veterans currently prefer shorter-term Treasuries.
Curious, as I'm not as knowledgeable in the least bit on bonds as many of you are-with our large allocation to TRAIX/PRWCX and the significant holdings for a number of years of the fund in bank loan/floating rate bonds, how do these bonds typically react to a reduction of interest rates by the fed?
PRWCX is really a capital appreciation fund and its bonds are riskier and of lower quality.
In lots of pieces in Barron's and elsewhere, the recommendations now are for investment-grade, short-term bonds with some HY and EM as spices. But this shouldn't distract you from holding PRWCX so long as it isn't your only fund.
FR/BL are lower-quality bonds and they are good for rising rate environment. The flipside is that when the rates are flat or declining, they just act like risky short-term HY.
I read the Vanguard report. Dated from this past April. I read no surprises, actually. Two-thirds of my bonds are in junk. And lately, we added Tips SCHP. It's breaking even, or just barely below, for the duration we've owned that ETF. TUHYX yield = 7.45%. PRCPX yield = 6.75% and HYDB yield = 6.61%. Higher up the food-chain, SCHP yield = 5.85%. I'm not complaining.
(On the other hand, BRUFX sits in the 100th percentile among peers. That is cruddy and terrible.)
Hank: FD - Just a reaction to your use of “proprietary”. It sounds as if you can’t share your approach on a board dedicated to sharing and helping one another. But perhaps I misunderstood your intent. Sorry if I offended you.
FD: I did share, read the link. The following is a main tech indicator I have used called, three line break. For over a year now, all my bond trades were in HY Munis using 2 out of the 3 funds each time (ORNAX,NHMAX,XXXXX). This (chart) shows how it works. Green bars=buy, Red bars=sell. This is a decent indicator that works with many bond funds. How and What else I do is proprietary, especially using mainly 2 funds. This is why I bought in the middle of last week. But, there is a change. The Fed fund rate, as we know it now, is stabilized at +-0.25% for the next several months. This means to me that finally, the risk of higher rates is lower, I can use other categories, and Multi is where I find unique funds. Munis were easier to predict with my trades and behave better than treasuries. I already posted that this time I bought NHMAX. This fund is usually the riskiest, the chance is for a better upside this time. As of April 30, it has an effective leverage of 27.3% per Nuveen site, there isn't other HY Muni OEF with such a leverage, unless I missed it. So, after more than a year trading only HY munis, this time NHMAX is only a small % of my portfolio, the other bond fund isn't.
========
Dear stillers: 1) Let me ask you an easy question. Why did you use 3 different names(stillers,Arriba, Albie) on different sites? Did you try to hide something? 2) Why don't you try to register on BB as stillers? You have no chance with the moderator who knows you for years. BTW, the subject of this thread is bond, why not make comments on it?
Comments
Unfortunately, I can't discuss what funds I own because it's part of my proprietary system.
My portfolio is very concentrated, as long as I can find 2-3 funds that I like, I'm in.
Every forum has at least one.
You began a 90 day "sabbatical" from the BIG BANG! Investors forum less than 12 hours ago.
I'm shocked (shocked!) since I thought you would temporarily refrain from posting while on sabbatical.
Then again, you must heed the urgent need to mention your superior proprietary system for the 1,000th time.
I hope you feel better now that you've got this off your chest!
But we can provide attention.
Has he enjoyed the attention we have given him?
It will have to do.
To me, the only thing that is relevant, is that an MFO poster abides by MFO rules of conduct and posting. As far as I know FD has the freedom to post as he pleases at MFO, until the MFO forum decides otherwise.
Is that a mandatory or self-imposed 90-day "sabbatical" from BB?
And what's the scoop on it?
If it's self-imposed, I'd give it a shelf-life of maybe 90 minutes.
If it's mandatory, sadly, MFO will feel the pain of his increased babbling here.
BTW, I checked his site for the gory details, but despite 22 different threads there, none of which appear to have posts made by any poster other than him (just 22 threads of him effectively posting to himself), there appears to be no mention of his BB 90-day "sabbatical" there. Should I also check on Truth Social?
Imposed by chang and he deleted those posts.
Wow! 90 days in the BB cooler. Heaven help MFO and all other sites he frequents during that stretch. Except of course his own site, where nobody else posts.
Too funny.
Best regards
Baseball fan
and more in the current issue of Barron's (subscription may be required).
Select excerpts are below.
"Given our economic forecast, we favor a high-quality tilt. That’s Treasuries, municipal bonds, and investment-grade [securities]. But there is also an opportunity in riskier parts of the market—high yield and emerging markets—where we are going to have a selective approach."
"Another reason that people like Treasuries, and why we like them, is they are the purest diversification play if you have a portfolio heavy in equities. If we’re headed into a recession, typically these bonds will rally, but it also means credit risk is rising, which means corporate bonds can lag behind Treasuries in a rally. Corporate bonds will have more correlation to the equity market."
"The third area where we are seeing good flows is municipal bonds. Last year, the muni market saw record outflows because investors had the unique opportunity to tax-loss harvest [sell losing stock positions to offset taxable gains]. That selling drove an overshoot in valuations to the cheap side. And this was in stark contrast to the fundamental value, which is strong: Over 70% of muni debt is rated AA or higher."
Link
Hank, if you think that my system is too funny, I welcome you to dive a bit into it(link). Several did and doing very well. The whole idea is to find great risk/reward funds, small AUM is a plus, an uptrend is a must + owning only 2-3 funds. In the last several years it's mostly bond OEFs. These funds eventually get discovered. I held PIMIX for about 7-8 years, then came IOFIX. HY Munis have always been a part of it.
I can’t argue with your idea that investors do best with “great risk/reward funds”. I’d maybe expand that to “great risk/reward opportunities”. Might be a fund. Might be a stock. Might be a bond. Might even be a particular asset manager. Would I ever suggest such here? Unlikely. Too much chance I’d make a bad call and help drive someone else to financial ruin. So at least two of us are reluctant to state where we think investors should currently put their money. But for different reasons.
Glad you’re having a successful year. Wishing you continued success.
Banned from BB for 90 days, he will need an alternate forum to many times, each and every day, spew his condescending, self-aggrandizing crap. And sadly for MFO posters, this will be his likely spot for the duration of his 90-day stretch.
No surprise his likens himself via parallel acronym to his true god. Funny how he used to boastfully post daily about his god but has duly STFU about him over the past months/years as the buffoon charts paths to incarceration in multiple jurisdictions.
Here is more info from Vanguard on fixed income team on their outlook for 2023; Sara Devereux leads their fixed income team.
https://advisors.vanguard.com/iwe/pdf/FAFIXINC.pdf
Thanks!
Sara DEVEREUX, Vanguard Fixed-Income Head. She joined Vanguard in 2019 from Goldman Sachs/GS. After a terrible 2022, BONDS are doing better in 2023; she wears a button, “Bonds Are Back”. She thinks that the US will have a shallow recession in 2023. Inflation fell from its peak but is still high; the core PCE may be +3.3% by 2023YE, +2.xx% by 2024YE. Many supply-related issues have been resolved, but the demand has to cool to tame wages and inflation. The labor market remains strong, but it is a lagging indicator. Due to many factors now, the unemployment rate may peak at 5% in the next recession. The FED may pause in June to assess the impact of its rapid tightening so far, but rates may go up later, and may remain higher for longer. The times now are opportunities for active bond investors (remember, she is at Vanguard!). She likes portfolios of high-quality bonds of short/intermediate duration with some HY and EM (consider those as equity equivalent); munis are also attractive. HY spreads are tight, but their absolute yields are OK. She is avoiding FR/BL as those are of lower quality. Vanguard funds mentioned are VCOBX (core), VCPAX (core plus), VGIT (Treasuries – intermediate), VMSIX (multisector), VTES (short-term muni).
“Spoiler alert: These veterans are both cautious now, with a strong preference for short-term Treasury bills.”
Forsyth’s tune changes week-to-week, so don’t take it too seriously. But the overall tone this week is that we’re into the early stages of a decades-long rise in interest rates (and a bear market in bonds). That supposedly explains the caution of the two veterans cited. It is also stated that - “Over two-plus centuries, U.S. longterm rates have oscillated around an average of 5% …”
Thanks @Observant1 and @Sven for helping keep this thread on the tracks.
In lots of pieces in Barron's and elsewhere, the recommendations now are for investment-grade, short-term bonds with some HY and EM as spices. But this shouldn't distract you from holding PRWCX so long as it isn't your only fund.
FR/BL are lower-quality bonds and they are good for rising rate environment. The flipside is that when the rates are flat or declining, they just act like risky short-term HY.
(On the other hand, BRUFX sits in the 100th percentile among peers. That is cruddy and terrible.)
FD: I did share, read the link. The following is a main tech indicator I have used called, three line break. For over a year now, all my bond trades were in HY Munis using 2 out of the 3 funds each time (ORNAX,NHMAX,XXXXX). This (chart) shows how it works. Green bars=buy, Red bars=sell. This is a decent indicator that works with many bond funds. How and What else I do is proprietary, especially using mainly 2 funds. This is why I bought in the middle of last week.
But, there is a change. The Fed fund rate, as we know it now, is stabilized at +-0.25% for the next several months. This means to me that finally, the risk of higher rates is lower, I can use other categories, and Multi is where I find unique funds. Munis were easier to predict with my trades and behave better than treasuries.
I already posted that this time I bought NHMAX. This fund is usually the riskiest, the chance is for a better upside this time. As of April 30, it has an effective leverage of 27.3% per Nuveen site, there isn't other HY Muni OEF with such a leverage, unless I missed it.
So, after more than a year trading only HY munis, this time NHMAX is only a small % of my portfolio, the other bond fund isn't.
========
Dear stillers:
1) Let me ask you an easy question. Why did you use 3 different names(stillers,Arriba, Albie) on different sites? Did you try to hide something?
2) Why don't you try to register on BB as stillers? You have no chance with the moderator who knows you for years.
BTW, the subject of this thread is bond, why not make comments on it?