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Stocks Drop on Report Powell Likely to Be Fired - WSJ
An article I was reading this morning pointed out that the last time the Fed cut rates, long rates and mortgage rates went up. I haven't verified that. So if anyone has a correction . . . let me know.
The federal funds rate was cut by 100 BPS from September 18, 2024 to December 18, 2024. However, 10-Year Treasury yields actually increased from 3.65% on September 17, 2024 to 4.57% on December 19, 2024. I didn't investigate the effect on mortgage rates.
Now Besett is talking about doing a "top to bottom review" of the Fed .... because if Emperor Hirocheeto can't fire Powell, they can at least make his last months a living hell and pave the way for a politicized Fed going forward.
A potential Fed Chair candidate WARSH has also suggested full review of the Fed/FOMC and revocation of the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord. That's another way of saying forget about the notion of an independent Fed and that the Fed is no different than other "independent" federal agencies whose heads and members/commissioners have been fired en masse.
Warsh used to be a frontrunner among the potential Fed Chair candidates, but I don't think he is now. If I have to bet on 1 external and 1 internal name, maybe HASSETT or WALLER ? The Fed and FOMC rosters are full now, so there can be various scenarios.
BESSENTT already has an important job as Treasury Secretary. His name is also mentioned, and he may take the Fed Chair job only if pressed hard.
Spellings of Hassett and Bessent can be mixed up easily.
Hi @WABAC This may help, if you read something like THIS. October, 2024.
@catch22 thanks for the link. Around that time there was a thread here about how we were all going to arrange our bond funds due to falling rates. Ha!. That took a turn after a while.
Mortgage rates will likely rise unless the Fed / Treasury impose some kind of yield curve control. I noted this possibility in my OT.I’ve read that some in high places are considering doing so. It would be a temporary “Band-Aid” - not likely to work longer term.
Hi @WABAC Check this mortgage and other rates discussion link
At the right top you'll see a list of numbers. Click 1 for page one. This will take you to the beginning of the thread, that is August, 2024 started by 'bee'. The title/subject is Preparing Your Portfolio For Rate Cuts
Perhaps this will look familiar as you read through the posts.
Hi @WABAC Check this mortgage and other rates discussion link
At the right top you'll see a list of numbers. Click 1 for page one. This will take you to the beginning of the thread, that is August, 2024 started by 'bee'. The title/subject is Preparing Your Portfolio For Rate Cuts
Perhaps this will look familiar as you read through the posts.
Heady days.
By the end I was bumping it out of an abundance of orneriness.
It takes a lot of will power to tame inflation, the kind that's in short supply almost everywhere.
Comments
However, 10-Year Treasury yields actually increased from 3.65% on September 17, 2024
to 4.57% on December 19, 2024. I didn't investigate the effect on mortgage rates.
Edit/Add:
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased from 6.09% on Sep. 19, 2024 to 6.72% on Dec. 19, 2024.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US/
Warsh used to be a frontrunner among the potential Fed Chair candidates, but I don't think he is now. If I have to bet on 1 external and 1 internal name, maybe HASSETT or WALLER ? The Fed and FOMC rosters are full now, so there can be various scenarios.
BESSENTT already has an important job as Treasury Secretary. His name is also mentioned, and he may take the Fed Chair job only if pressed hard.
Spellings of Hassett and Bessent can be mixed up easily.
Maybe @Observant1, rembers that thread.
At the right top you'll see a list of numbers. Click 1 for page one. This will take you to the beginning of the thread, that is August, 2024 started by 'bee'. The title/subject is Preparing Your Portfolio For Rate Cuts
Perhaps this will look familiar as you read through the posts.
By the end I was bumping it out of an abundance of orneriness.
It takes a lot of will power to tame inflation, the kind that's in short supply almost everywhere.