Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Remember everyone that Trump is responsible for the sun rising, but if his tariffs result in diminished GDP or higher prices, we need to blame someone else. Are we all on board right now?
It's all Biden's fault! By the way, the recent weather chaos around the country is being caused by the Jewish Space Lasers controlled by Obama, funded by Soros, and assembled by the Clinton Global Initiative as part of its lasting deep state conspiracy using technology from Italy that's been co-opted by liberal operatives in Venezuela in a sinister scheme to make Emperor Hirocheeto look bad. But you won't hear that on the fake 'news' networks on TV --- but you can learn all about this absolutely proven truth on the SuperHappyMAGAHour Podcast hosted by The Pillow Guy, available online!
(okay, I'm feeling better now....we now return to the discussion of tariffs....)
If this was a new thread, I'm not sure what the proper subject line would be. However, the witty minds here can help with that. Thank you in advance for you submissions.
I'm thinking: "Coming to a mailbox near you; a collectable autograph on a U.S. Treasury check."
---
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) has introduced the American Worker Rebate Act, a bill that proposes sending tariff rebate checks to American families.
Here's a breakdown of the key aspects of the bill
Rebate Amount: At least $600 per adult and dependent child, with the possibility of a larger amount if tariff revenue exceeds projections.
Mechanism: The program would be set up as a refundable tax credit.
Eligibility: The rebate would be reduced by 5% for joint filers with an adjusted gross income exceeding $150,000, heads of households earning over $112,500, or individuals earning over $75,000.
Goal: To redistribute revenue from increased tariff collections, which Hawley says have reached record levels, according to KTTN. Hawley stated, "Americans deserve a tax rebate after four years of Biden policies that have devastated families' savings and livelihoods," adding, "Like President Trump proposed, my legislation would allow hard-working Americans to benefit from the wealth that Trump's tariffs are returning to this country".
President Trump's Support: Hawley introduced the bill after President Trump publicly endorsed a similar rebate concept.
I am in a holding pattern with 58% equities and more cash than ever. I perceive the recent surge of U.S. market gains as mainly based on retail investors buying into smoke and mirrors. If I am wrong, I am still sitting at what is a good safe allocation for a person very close to retirement. If I am right, I will add 2-7% to equities in a downturn, and add to bond oefs/cefs, as indicated.
Let's just add even more to the national debt, because why not?
It's amazing how many GQP congresscritters will vote with the herd on 'big' things and then afterward do a complete 180 by introducing bills that would reverse their other votes, knowing full well it won't go anywhere. Way to have their cake and eat it too, eh?
IIRC Hawley did the same thing with Medicaid funding (or hospital funding or something like that) once the Big Bastardly Betrayal was passed.
As long as I hold ultimate power, how many ways can I think of to balance money flows so that they transfer other-people's-money into my money? Which of these ways can I sell as a "good thing" for other-people long enough to implement with no going back?
Per BBG, the full list of tarriffs (er, sorry, "insane tax increase on Americans") going into effect at midnight ... including 39% on stuff from Switzerland...
Canada just got bumped to 35%, as T is pissed about Carney stating that Canada would support a Palestine state, with conditions; at the upcoming NATO meeting.
Well, I was gonna buy myself one of those really expensive Swiss watches so all you guys would be impressed, but I guess I'll have to stay with my good ol' Seiko. Darn. A day late and a dollar short. Again.
I planned to purchase a different Patek Philippe watch for each day of the week. I'd then post pictures of these classic watches on the forum to impress members. Please allow me to introduce myself, I'm a man of wealth and taste... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jwtyn-L-2gQ&list=RDJwtyn-L-2gQ&start_radio=1
Hi @Old_Joe Apparently, there is a delay of the newest tariffs. Reportedly, if your watch ships prior to August 8th, you're good to go. Canada's new 35% rate apparently isn't clear what the new rate will apply towards. AND, The White House also has plans for 50% tariffs on Brazil which are set to be in fully in effect one day sooner — as that order is operating under its own seven-day clock that began Wednesday. Lastly, it's hard to read the full rules of these agreements written on cheap paper napkins with cheap ink pens.
Hi @Old_Joe Apparently, there is a delay of the newest tariffs. Reportedly, if your watch ships prior to August 8th, you're good to go. Canada's new 35% rate apparently isn't clear what the new rate will apply towards. AND, The White House also has plans for 50% tariffs on Brazil which are set to be in fully in effect one day sooner — as that order is operating under its own seven-day clock that began Wednesday. Lastly, it's hard to read the full rules of these agreements written on cheap paper napkins with cheap ink pens.
This is why you don't elect a reality TV dufus to run the country.
Thanks so very much, Catch... I'm really happy to know that I can buy that watch, but @Observant1 has me so totally outclassed that it's probably not worth it anymore.
So much wins as he sent out tariffs letters to many counties before the artificial August 1st deadline. Most notable countries are India 25%, Canada 35%, and Switzerland 39%.
Dollar is trending lower on Friday.after an upward trend for this week. Also earning season is upon us.
Excellent post this a.m. from Krugman about the attempted tariff extortion on Brazil to save his authoritarian pal Bolsonaro from trial, conviction, and prison.
Short version: It's delusions of grandeur to an absurd level: Dump doesn't have "the juice" to pull it off. Brazil isn't dependent enough on the U.S. to get them to blow up their legal landscape to please Dump. And it's clearly illegal to use tariffs to interfere in the entirely internal affairs of another nation.
Oh, and if anyone's worried about orange juice prices, it's exempted from the 50%, making the extortion demand even more absurd.
Investment implications: Don't need to worry overly much about investments in Brazil or in OJ, e.g., Tropicana (PepsiCo) and Simply Orange (Coca-Cola).
Excellent post this a.m. from Krugman about the attempted tariff extortion on Brazil to save his authoritarian pal Bolsonaro from trial, conviction, and prison.
Short version: It's delusions of grandeur to an absurd level: Dump doesn't have "the juice" to pull it off. Brazil isn't dependent enough on the U.S. to get them to blow up their legal landscape to please Dump. And it's clearly illegal to use tariffs to interfere in the entirely internal affairs of another nation.
Oh, and if anyone's worried about orange juice prices, it's exempted from the 50%, making the extortion demand even more absurd.
Investment implications: Don't need to worry overly much about investments in Brazil or in OJ, e.g., Tropicana (PepsiCo) and Simply Orange (Coca-Cola).
And yet ol' Donnie would absolutely blow a screed-laced gasket if some country 'sanctioned' a judge here for something similar.
This is not 'his' government for 'his' personal use and benefit. Sadly, few in this town are willing to publicly agree with that sentiment.
If you were leading a country like Brazil and wanted to maintain a healthy economic trend in GDP growth, but a large trading partner like the U.S. put up a huge barrier to trade, wouldn't you be compelled to strengthen ties to other large trading partners like China? Are other countries thinking this way too? How is the the U.S. "winning" here?
How is the the U.S. "winning" here? Of course, we are not. But we all knew the answer to that one. If this country survives this 2nd Orange term, we will be vastly diminished in countless ways. So much of the bullshit has been done under the cover of the Great National Emergency. I ask again: where's the emergency? If it was at the southern border, Trumpy has stopped the flow of humans. But there's a floating Chinese menu of ostensible reasons for maintaining the Emergency as time goes on. Reason du jour is different from yesterday's and from tomorrow's. Pick 2 from Column A and 4 from column B. Any of them will do.
Our strength was our tight knit allies and partners we've built up over decades. If they thought is was a fluke the first term now they're thinking how can they trust the US going forward. Allies and partners unfortunately are in the process of going...going...gone This is better destruction than in our enemies wildest dreams.
Our strength was our tight knit allies and partners we've built up over decades. If they thought is was a fluke the first term now they're thinking how can they trust the US going forward. Allies and partners unfortunately are in the process of going...going...gone This is better destruction than in our enemies wildest dreams.
Well-said. It will be 'America Alone' before it becomes 'America First' .... just like how Donnie tried to bully his way into the NYC social elites (who shunned him) and then the NFL owners club (who also rejected him) he's trying to make himself the center of attention so people (countries) HAVE to come to him and pay their respects.
Allies are learning that the US can't be trusted. Not just because of Donnie, but because of a dysfunctional Congress that will just enable whatever kook is in power and not serve as a proper 'check and balance' to their policies, a government that routinely - if not proudly - ignores the rule of law and court decisions, treats treaty obligations as 'optional' duties, and a dysfunctional populace that either votes for chaos or doesn't vote at all (thus helping enable the chaos). To wit: Countries are reportedly thinking twice before sharing intelligence with us these days, and I'm sure regional ex-US trading blocs are getting stronger, too.
I think we are at the beginning of a restructuring of the world order -- but it's not the one America (or Donnie) thinks it will be, no matter how hard they bleat about it. Economy-wise I believe the world will restructure to work WITH the United States, but not THROUGH the United States, and yes, I am in the camp that believes the dollar's ongoing primacy is being endangered these days.
Add to all of that the deportations and immigration restrictions that will eliminate the low cost labor that allowed us to compete better with lower income trade partners, and will cut us off from the best and brightest.
Conservatives like to talk about how unmotivated and entitled our own young folks are today. And they are expecting them to step up to fill the void of agriculture work and STEM employment? Seems like a disconnect.
If Putin himself were to elect policies that would diminish the U.S., he might well choose Trump policies.
it's hard to read the full rules of these agreements written on cheap paper napkins with cheap ink pens.
That would be following a tradition of simplistic economic writings on cheap paper napkins. The Laffer curve for example. Sure, the Smithsonian claims to have the "original" cloth napkin, but accounts (including from Laffer) say that it was a paper cocktail napkin from a bar.
Paper vs. cloth aside, one can't read rules of these trade agreements because they don't exist in writings that run just a few pages.
There are also some tariff rates still to be negotiated. How significant are these “unknowns” and how much could they alter the overall impact of the trade deal?
The nature of doing trade “deals” with Trump is that these are not traditional free trade “agreements”—which take years to negotiate in painstaking detail—but commitments (often unwritten or based on a simple handshake) that must be worked out further later or can be revisited in the future. It also often happens that the two sides have fundamentally different interpretations of what has been agreed to.
Comments
(okay, I'm feeling better now....we now return to the discussion of tariffs....)
However, the witty minds here can help with that. Thank you in advance for you submissions.
I'm thinking: "Coming to a mailbox near you; a collectable autograph on a U.S. Treasury check."
---
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) has introduced the American Worker Rebate Act, a bill that proposes sending tariff rebate checks to American families.
Here's a breakdown of the key aspects of the bill
Rebate Amount: At least $600 per adult and dependent child, with the possibility of a larger amount if tariff revenue exceeds projections.
Mechanism: The program would be set up as a refundable tax credit.
Eligibility: The rebate would be reduced by 5% for joint filers with an adjusted gross income exceeding $150,000, heads of households earning over $112,500, or individuals earning over $75,000.
Goal: To redistribute revenue from increased tariff collections, which Hawley says have reached record levels, according to KTTN. Hawley stated, "Americans deserve a tax rebate after four years of Biden policies that have devastated families' savings and livelihoods," adding, "Like President Trump proposed, my legislation would allow hard-working Americans to benefit from the wealth that Trump's tariffs are returning to this country".
President Trump's Support: Hawley introduced the bill after President Trump publicly endorsed a similar rebate concept.
I am in a holding pattern with 58% equities and more cash than ever. I perceive the recent surge of U.S. market gains as mainly based on retail investors buying into smoke and mirrors. If I am wrong, I am still sitting at what is a good safe allocation for a person very close to retirement. If I am right, I will add 2-7% to equities in a downturn, and add to bond oefs/cefs, as indicated.
It's amazing how many GQP congresscritters will vote with the herd on 'big' things and then afterward do a complete 180 by introducing bills that would reverse their other votes, knowing full well it won't go anywhere. Way to have their cake and eat it too, eh?
IIRC Hawley did the same thing with Medicaid funding (or hospital funding or something like that) once the Big Bastardly Betrayal was passed.
Does the Big Beautiful con job sabotage the Bull market?
Risk off.
Europe has been soft for several trading days, after the very large gains. Many Global sectors were downward today (Thursday).
Perhaps sentiment is finally changing. Europe has had a really nice runup.
Doesn't seem sustainable. Like we just climbed the lift hill at the start of a Roller Coaster ride. What comes after the slow, steady ascent?
https://archive.ph/I5PQJ
I'd then post pictures of these classic watches on the forum to impress members.
Please allow me to introduce myself, I'm a man of wealth and taste...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jwtyn-L-2gQ&list=RDJwtyn-L-2gQ&start_radio=1
AND, The White House also has plans for 50% tariffs on Brazil which are set to be in fully in effect one day sooner — as that order is operating under its own seven-day clock that began Wednesday.
Lastly, it's hard to read the full rules of these agreements written on cheap paper napkins with cheap ink pens.
First comment - "I hope these guys make it big. They have a lot of potential."
So .... it's only a nibble of a TACO for the moment. Check.
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
So much wins as he sent out tariffs letters to many counties before the artificial August 1st deadline. Most notable countries are India 25%, Canada 35%, and Switzerland 39%.
Dollar is trending lower on Friday.after an upward trend for this week. Also earning season is upon us.
Short version: It's delusions of grandeur to an absurd level: Dump doesn't have "the juice" to pull it off. Brazil isn't dependent enough on the U.S. to get them to blow up their legal landscape to please Dump. And it's clearly illegal to use tariffs to interfere in the entirely internal affairs of another nation.
Oh, and if anyone's worried about orange juice prices, it's exempted from the 50%, making the extortion demand even more absurd.
Investment implications: Don't need to worry overly much about investments in Brazil or in OJ, e.g., Tropicana (PepsiCo) and Simply Orange (Coca-Cola).
This is not 'his' government for 'his' personal use and benefit. Sadly, few in this town are willing to publicly agree with that sentiment.
And that is a good measure of the utter, complete insanity of this moment in time in these not-so United States.
Allies are learning that the US can't be trusted. Not just because of Donnie, but because of a dysfunctional Congress that will just enable whatever kook is in power and not serve as a proper 'check and balance' to their policies, a government that routinely - if not proudly - ignores the rule of law and court decisions, treats treaty obligations as 'optional' duties, and a dysfunctional populace that either votes for chaos or doesn't vote at all (thus helping enable the chaos). To wit: Countries are reportedly thinking twice before sharing intelligence with us these days, and I'm sure regional ex-US trading blocs are getting stronger, too.
I think we are at the beginning of a restructuring of the world order -- but it's not the one America (or Donnie) thinks it will be, no matter how hard they bleat about it. Economy-wise I believe the world will restructure to work WITH the United States, but not THROUGH the United States, and yes, I am in the camp that believes the dollar's ongoing primacy is being endangered these days.
Conservatives like to talk about how unmotivated and entitled our own young folks are today. And they are expecting them to step up to fill the void of agriculture work and STEM employment? Seems like a disconnect.
If Putin himself were to elect policies that would diminish the U.S., he might well choose Trump policies.
That would be following a tradition of simplistic economic writings on cheap paper napkins. The Laffer curve for example. Sure, the Smithsonian claims to have the "original" cloth napkin, but accounts (including from Laffer) say that it was a paper cocktail napkin from a bar.
Paper vs. cloth aside, one can't read rules of these trade agreements because they don't exist in writings that run just a few pages. https://www.cfr.org/article/us-eu-trade-deal-avoids-tariff-war-deepens-european-dependence