Government Statistics: Trump fires labor statistics chief after weaker than expected jobs report

Comments

• JD_co

  August 1

  Our credibility is going to be completely shot. Not just here at home in the US, but globally. We are no better than Russia at this point.
  
  I refuse to believe any reporting that this admin generates....which may well be the point of their shenanigans.
  
  Hey, Dump....mission accomplished!
• Old_Joe

  August 1 edited August 1

  And these additions, from a report in The New York Times:

  President Trump unleashed his fury about weakness in the labor market on Friday, saying without evidence that the data were “manipulated” and that he was firing the Senate-confirmed Department of Labor official responsible for pulling together the numbers each month.
  
  In a long post on social media on Friday, Mr. Trump said he had directed his team to fire Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics who was confirmed on a bipartisan basis in 2024.
  
  Only hours earlier, Stephen Miran, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, offered a much different explanation for the jobs revision. In an appearance on CNBC, he said much of the change was the result of “quirks in the seasonal adjustment process” and even the president’s own policies, particularly on immigration, potentially affecting hiring numbers for May and June. He made no mention of any concerns about manipulated data.
• gman57

  August 1

  More diversion or flooding the zone. Keep announcing crazy stuff until people stop paying attention.
• Old_Joe

  August 1

  Too serious for that... the people over at the Fed certainly cannot stop paying attention, nor can any financial operation that depends on accurate information on the economy.
  
  This bozo of a "leader" cannot grasp a situation of any complexity. He sees only one small piece of information and cannot grasp that it is an integral moving part that also governs the operation of many other pieces of moving machinery.
• JD_co

  August 1

  Sinking the stock market with surprise tariffs could actually be an attempt to move the news cycle further away from Epstein.
  
  But this move is just one small piece of the "loyalist" plan to set up an authoritarian regime that does whatever he says.
• Old_Joe

  August 1

  Yes, that's quite possible also.
• rforno

  August 1

  Words continue to fail me this year ....
  
  We can't trust anything the US government says, does, writes, or releases these days.
  
  Dictator-like tendencies, indeed.
• larryB

  August 1

  What a shock. Nobody saw this coming. The end of transparency ! Another reason to continue shifting investments ex USA.
• Old_Joe

  August 1

  @larryB- Now don't be too hasty... maybe Ford would be a great investment right now. Oh, wait... maybe not... seems like Trump's really stuck it to them. Oh well...
• Observant1

  August 1

  The quality of U.S. economic data, long seen as the "gold standard," may be further called into question.
  
  “The single most important piece of news today is the BLS firing. If you can’t trust the data,
  I don’t know how investors make decisions,” said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chair of research at Barclays.
• rforno

  August 1

  Observant1 said:

  The quality of U.S. economic data, long seen as the "gold standard," may be further called into question.
  
  “The single most important piece of news today is the BLS firing. If you can’t trust the data,
  I don’t know how investors make decisions,” said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chair of research at Barclays.

  After this action, I would think Wall Street is smart enough to know now that they can't trust government-provided economic data/forecasts anymore. Maybe?
• hank

  August 1 edited August 1

  I’m trying to figure out how to invest based on this new development. If the new Commissioner of Labour Statistics is able to “cook” the numbers to be better than they now appear, won’t investor confidence rebound and stocks stage a big comeback? Those who piled in on ”Liberation Day” must be very happy now. I think it was Buffett who once called the stock market a “voting machine.” That implies that investor psychology is more important shorter term than any particular set of statistics.
  
  Does anybody here seriously look at the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers before throwing $$ at this fund or that fund? Really? I couldn’t have told you what BLS stood for before today!
• larryB

  August 1

  @Hank. I never heard of a tout named Stack before you brought him up as a source of market intel. But I certainly was well aware of the BLS. “To each his own, it’s all unknown. “ B. Dylan.
• Old_Joe

  August 2 edited August 2

  "Does anybody here seriously look at the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers before throwing $$ at this fund or that fund?"
  
  Maybe not too many here at MFO, but do you really believe that the Fed doesn't take a real hard look at those numbers in trying to understand the mechanics of the economy?
  
  Do you really believe that the advisors of many mutual funds who need to decide what securities their mutual funds should buy or sell don't take a real hard look at those numbers?
  
  Do you really think that if Trump can demand that BLS stats be cooked that we, and the entire financial world, can continue to believe any other government statistics, and make intelligent decisions based on nothing more than Trump's wishful thinking?
  
• howaya

  August 2

  If you were hell bent on influencing a lower short term interest rate, why would a weak BLS employment report be so upsetting? Doesn't Trump understand he could turn to Powell and say "See, see!" while jumping up and down? His instinct to fire McEntarfer is is the wrong knee jerk reaction to have.
• Old_Joe

  August 2

  Exactamente.
• Observant1

  August 2 edited August 2

  "His instinct to fire McEntarfer is the wrong knee jerk reaction to have."
  
  Trump's base instinct is to berate, fire, or sue any individual/institution
  which has opposing views or provides information he detests.
  Regardless if he has a firm understanding of the subject matter...
• Crash

  August 2

  Just back home after being stuck inside of Mobile with the Memphis Blues again. No, wait. I was stuck in L.A. waiting for my re-booked flight after the non-tsunami event. Anyhow, it gave me a chance to connect with my son, who lives in the L.A. burbs.
  ...And now, I'm reading this thread. Talk about a tin foil potentate! The US is worthy of precisely nobody's investment money, under the reign of the Orange Doink.
• hank

  August 2 edited August 2

  ”Do you really believe that the advisors of many mutual funds who need to decide what securities their mutual funds should buy or sell don't take a real hard look at those numbers?”
  
  I like to think my money managers look at everything. But those investing outside the U.S. in places like Brazil, Mexico, Cambodia, Russia or China probably find other acceptable data sets knowing those government supplied numbers may not be accurate.
  
  I was of course speaking only of BLS numbers. Greater challenges for investment firms would exist if all government data (inflation, housing starts, loan delinquencies, rental rates, mortgage applications, tax revenue and sources, crop yields, oil production, weather projections etc.) were corrupted.
  
  Even if we truly became a third world country and no government data could ever be trusted, well funded financial entities (Blackrock, TRP, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs, KKR) could still access a trove of alternative data sources.
  
  A bit from the linked Forbes piece:
  
  ”Early Alternative data sources consisted of credit card transactions, web scraped data, geolocation data from cell phones, satellite images and weather forecasts. Recent regulations such as GDPR, CCPA, and other privacy issues are creating concerns about some of these sources.
  
  A new source of data rapidly gaining traction is data gathered directly from consumers in a scientific and privacy compliant manner. The data goes beyond a swiping of a card to the motivations and intentions of the consumer who uses the card. This type of data has been used to successfully predict sales, economic predictive signals such as recessions and future purchase intentions across categories and down to specific retailers.”-
  -
  
  Please realize I am not defending Mr. Trump’s decision. It was wrong. I’m merely trying to assess the “other investing” implications for myself as an investor. I won’t be selling anything Monday morning. If the downward trend continues through next week, I’ll start buying.
• larryB

  August 2

  @Old_Joe. Thank you for your insightful comments . Can’t thank you enough. To minimize the importance of the impact of the numbers that come out of the BLS is ignorance and to fire the messenger is the biggest story of the week. One can only imagine what comes next.
• hank

  August 2

  Thanks for calling me ignorant @LarryB.
• rforno

  August 2

  Observant1 said:

  "His instinct to fire McEntarfer is the wrong knee jerk reaction to have."
  
  Trump's base instinct is to berate, fire, or sue any individual/institution
  which has opposing views or provides information he detests.
  Regardless if he has a firm understanding of the subject matter...

  And that base instinct goes into high gear when deep down he knows that his plans (tariffs, employment, rates) aren't working out the way he wants....as evidenced by his actions yesterday.
  
  More dangerous, the guy influencing economic policy in America is the same guy who managed to bankrupt his own casinos. (Most places would have to work really hard to do that!)
• Derf

  August 2

  I was thinking along with you, @rforno "
  More dangerous, the guy influencing economic policy in America is the same guy who managed to bankrupt his own casinos. (Most places would have to work really hard to do that!) "
• a2z

  August 2

  
  greetings from the 3rd world. turkey also had fired its head of stats after a much too truthful inflation report, which was obvious to anyone on the planet looking at public and black market currency exchange.
  https://archive.ph/YJ5S0
  i guess if you are permitted to stay alive in authoritarian regimes after doing math and science, its something.
  
  if one feel this affects how you invest in america, one can join BLM Friends (for free) and\or send a message on their site supporting reinstatement of someone clearly more competent than a MAGA lackey.
  https://www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025/8/1/statement-on-commissioner-mcentarfers-removal
  
  or continue enjoying gop's greatening of america until they come for your money. by hook, and literally, by crook.
  
• catch22

  August 2

  As the BLS agency provides data to Social Security to establish COLA for SS (and others), might it be expected that SS COLA (set in October) may be flat or negative for recipients; effectively stating that there is no inflation? Perhaps this function will be moved to an individual or other agency.
  
• Observant1

  August 2

  Investors react to firing of BLS commissioner and Kugler's resignation.
  https://www.reuters.com/business/view-investors-react-kuglers-resignation-firing-of-bls-commissioner-2025-08-01/
• JD_co

  August 2

  An article on CNN was entitled "The Trump administration takes a very Orwellian turn."
  And here we are.
  
  https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/02/politics/the-trump-administration-takes-a-very-orwellian-turn

  "What happens if the next jobs report is great? Will the markets believe it?
  
  We’ve certainly seen plenty of rather blunt Trump efforts to control such narratives and rewrite history before. A sampling:
  
  - He engaged in a yearslong effort to make Jan. 6 defendants who attacked the Capitol in his name out to be sympathetic patriots, even calling them “hostages,” before pardoning them.
  - His administration’s efforts to weed out diversity, equity and inclusion from the government often ensnared things that merely celebrated Black people and women.
  - He and his administration have at times taken rather dim views of the free speech rights of those who disagree with them, including talking about mere protests – i.e. not necessarily violence – as being “illegal.” A loyalist US attorney at one point threatened to pursue people who criticized then-Trump ally Elon Musk even for non-criminal behavior.
  - Trump has repeatedly suggested criticism of judges he likes should be illegal, despite regularly attacking judges he doesn’t like.
  - His term began with the portraits of military leaders who clashed with him being removed from the Pentagon. It also began with a massive purge of independent inspectors general charged with holding the administration to account.
  
  All of it reinforces the idea that Trump is trying to consolidate power by pursuing rather heavy-handed and blatant tactics.
  
  But if there’s a week that really drove home how blunt these efforts can be, it might be this one."
• FD1000

  August 3

  If I were running a company and my CFO came in saying we need to revise May’s numbers down by 90%, I’d fire them on the spot.
  A miss that big isn’t just a mistake — it’s a failure of process, oversight, and credibility.
  
  
  
• Observant1

  August 3 edited August 4

  Revisions to payroll employment data are part of the routine process.
  The May and June revisions in the latest release were much larger than usual.
  Although I don't know what caused these major revisions,
  it's likely that BLS process improvements can be made.
  
  Trump alleged that the data was rigged or manipulated.
  There is absolutely no evidence to support this!
  It's obvious that the BLS commissioner was fired because the revised data was disliked by the administration.
  A quintessential example of shooting the messenger...
  
  “One reason that the U.S. is regarded as one of the better places to invest is the accuracy of the data,
  where the data is not manipulated by the government to satisfy whatever the government is trying to communicate.”
  —Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist, CFRA Research
  
  “I can't recall revisions of this magnitude, but I also think that it's really unprecedented for a president
  to just fire someone for numbers they don't like without really trying to determine why first.
  And that's not a good sign.”
  —Steve Sosnick, Chief Market Analyst, Interactive Brokers
  
  “(Trump) didn't seem to be disappointed with the last five jobs reports.
  It was only today's where this member of the BLS seems to be incompetent, so that stands out as irregular.
  I think this is clearly something that happens in dictatorships, not in democracies.”
  —Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist, B. Riley Wealth
• rforno

  August 3

  The Orange Idiot doesn't understand how government works. Revisions are not 'fraud' or 'tampering' .... but that's all his little peabrain seems to fathom, so of course it must be 'fraud' designed to make him look bad,