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If you were leading a country like Brazil and wanted to maintain a healthy economic trend in GDP growth, but a large trading partner like the U.S. put up a huge barrier to trade, wouldn't you be compelled to strengthen ties to other large trading partners like China? Are other countries thinking this way too? How is the the U.S. "winning" here?
the U.S. exported more goods to Brazil than it imported, resulting in a goods trade surplus of $7.4 billion. This marked a significant increase from the previous year. Key details of the U.S.-Brazil trade relationship include: * U.S. Exports to Brazil: Major exports from the U.S. to Brazil typically include industrial machinery, fossil fuels (like refined petroleum), aircraft and parts, and chemicals. * U.S. Imports from Brazil: The U.S. imports a variety of goods from Brazil, with key products being crude oil, iron and steel products, aircraft, coffee, and wood pulp.
That was a $7.4 billion trade surplus with Brazil in 2024. And an increase from 2023. Yet, here we are placing tariffs on Brazil. Even more reason for Brazil to strengthen ties with any partner that isn't engaging in unfair trade practices with them and trying to influence their justice system.
If I were leading a country that was being treated this way, I would slowly and carefully begin shifting trade to other nations. Canada is a similar situation, we have a trade surplus with them, when all commerce (goods and services) is taken into account, yet we alienate them with punitive measures. In essence, we are taking advantage of a neighbor and ally.
USA has trade deficit with Canada on goods (oil, cars) of $63B, but services surplus of $32B. (Tourism, software, IP). Tourism from Canada is going down, but much less than 50% plus expected, for now…
However, President Trump won’t allow other countries to tax USA services because he has all the cards, he is basically King of the World unless other countries get together and decide to do something.
I stand corrected, apparently we have a $31 billion deficit on approximately $765 billion in total trade. Not surprising, as we import 4 million barrels of oil a day from Canada.
I might add that I do not personally consider a trade deficit to be a bad thing, necessarily. Or believe that there could be zero trade deficits across all nations.
As I understand it, Trump imposed tariffs on China during his first term in office. China retaliated by imposing tariffs on U.S. soybeans, leading to more soybean trade from Brazil to China. Trump ultimately had to subsidize soybean farmers for their losses, all at the expense of American taxpayers. The U.S. used to be the world's largest exporter of soybeans but has not and may not ever recover from that lost trade. The dollar value all of these transactions are measurable.
What isn't as easy to measure is the value of the damage to our international relations. If you believe that a primary source of what makes America great is its ties to and influence over other nations - with trade being central to those relationships - then you have to ask if Trump's isolationist policies (which goes beyond trade and includes the elimination of USAID soft power, goodwill, etc) are worth more to the U.S. economy and national security. The real value of the U.S. carrying trade deficits with other nations could actually be beneficial, a cost we should be willing to bear. But every time Trump slaps a trading partner with a tariff it compels that country to build relationships elsewhere, creating an opportunity for mercantilist China. Actually, it becomes an opportunity for BRIC nations, served on a silver platter.
For at least a decade much has been said about America being a nation in decline. Tariffs may facilitate and accelerate that decline.
@equalizer and @Howaya make some excellent points. The U.S. has a voracious consumer with plenty of disposable income ... for now. And in bigger numbers than many of our trade partners.
And China has a robust manufacturing base that is hankering to expand. China's Belt and Road initiative is poised to fill the void that the U.S. leaves in our alliances.
as i heard on a recent podcast, the global reallocation of capital will lag the reallocation of trust. and yeah, i dont need some trading genius to tell me to look out the window to see if the immediate weather is good.
Comments
Key details of the U.S.-Brazil trade relationship include:
* U.S. Exports to Brazil: Major exports from the U.S. to Brazil typically include industrial machinery, fossil fuels (like refined petroleum), aircraft and parts, and chemicals.
* U.S. Imports from Brazil: The U.S. imports a variety of goods from Brazil, with key products being crude oil, iron and steel products, aircraft, coffee, and wood pulp.
If I were leading a country that was being treated this way, I would slowly and carefully begin shifting trade to other nations. Canada is a similar situation, we have a trade surplus with them, when all commerce (goods and services) is taken into account, yet we alienate them with punitive measures. In essence, we are taking advantage of a neighbor and ally.
However, President Trump won’t allow other countries to tax USA services because he has all the cards, he is basically King of the World unless other countries get together and decide to do something.
I might add that I do not personally consider a trade deficit to be a bad thing, necessarily. Or believe that there could be zero trade deficits across all nations.
What isn't as easy to measure is the value of the damage to our international relations. If you believe that a primary source of what makes America great is its ties to and influence over other nations - with trade being central to those relationships - then you have to ask if Trump's isolationist policies (which goes beyond trade and includes the elimination of USAID soft power, goodwill, etc) are worth more to the U.S. economy and national security. The real value of the U.S. carrying trade deficits with other nations could actually be beneficial, a cost we should be willing to bear. But every time Trump slaps a trading partner with a tariff it compels that country to build relationships elsewhere, creating an opportunity for mercantilist China. Actually, it becomes an opportunity for BRIC nations, served on a silver platter.
For at least a decade much has been said about America being a nation in decline. Tariffs may facilitate and accelerate that decline.
And China has a robust manufacturing base that is hankering to expand. China's Belt and Road initiative is poised to fill the void that the U.S. leaves in our alliances.
You make some excellent points in your post!
Trump's shenanigans will harm our relationships with other nations to our detriment.
as i heard on a recent podcast, the global reallocation of capital will lag the reallocation of trust.
and yeah, i dont need some trading genius to tell me to look out the window to see if the immediate weather is good.