Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Time and time again, we hear the need to separate politics from your investing decisions. I never understood that: government is where politics lives, at least the current official flavor. "Elections have consequences." And gov't makes decisions that affect us all. That's what gov't is all about. So, it goes without saying that political decisions become Bills, and then laws or regulations. (Although a great many ideas just die.) We are all going to be affected, whether for good or ill.
So then: what kind of society do you want to live in? Do you want to promote or be controlled by policies which ignore human need? Or do you prefer an environment which does not promote moneymaking at the expense of people?
Market sentiment most often translates to: will the Markets rise or fall this week or this month? But what the Market may likely do will be either promoted or inhibited by political decisions. It wasn't long ago that "Mr. Peabody's Coal Train" was the last place you'd want to invest. But the current regime is bent on destroying even the option for people to ponder the damage that will continue to be done via fossil fuels and climate change. They have gone as far as to officially remove even that particular nomenclature from any official proceedings.
And of course, nothing is ever perfect, even with the best of intentions. Happy Thanksgiving. I've a lot to be thankful for, in spite of myself.
@Crash raises some serious questions. Do you invest primarily (1) for the purpose of increasing your personal wealth or (2) for promoting democratic rule and social justice? Personally I invest to increase my wealth. I vote and contribute money to candidates and institutions (ie PBS) that promote democratic governance and social justice. Two different things. Why conflate the two?
I do like to consider the macro picture in making investment decisions. So, sure, politics may enter in, especially as regards issues of taxation and regulation. (The independence of the Federal Reserve might be considered under macro.) But there are many other things to consider under macro like consumer / investor sentiment indicators, relative strength of competing global economies, weather patterns and trends in the FX markets. And I’m not ignoring the increasingly chaotic state of U.S. governance (which extends beyond any single individual). Consider that too under macro. Give it due consideration. But, ISTM that is different from simply buying or selling based on your own political preference.
It is quite possible to have a terrible economy under democratic rule (like the U.S. throughout the 1930s). Conversely, it is quite possible to have a strong economy under despotic rule (like Germany in the late 30s). Do I approve of despotic rule? No. I’m just saying don’t conflate making money with politics. Not the same. I doubt you’d be wealthier today had you sold all your equities on January 20th and moved to cash. But, Oh - You’d feel so much better.
”Hitler achieved notable economic and diplomatic successes during the first five years of his rule. Hitler substantially revived the economy. Unemployment, so pivotal in bringing him to power, had dropped from 6 million to less than 1 million between 1933 and 1937, this at a time when the US was still wallowing in the Depression. National production and income doubled during the same period. This was partly owing to Hitler's rearmament policy, but also to more benign forms of public spending. The world's first major highway system, the autobahns, began snaking across the country, and there was talk of providing every citizen with a cheap, standardized car, the people's car, or Volkswagen.”
Hey, @hank. Productive thoughts. Of course, capitalism is the only game in town, and its basis is not the intention to do good. Capitalism has no intention. My point is that capitalism can be bent by humans to benefit already-uber-wealthy-oligarchs, or it can serve the general public. Why is it that, generally speaking, things are more egalitarian in Europe?
I recall a line from an episode in that wonderful tv series, "Thirtysomething." (Mel Harris! SO gorgeous!) So, a prospective employer was almost scolding Michael, saying: "We're not in the business of doing good; the good we might do happens in the course of doing business." A-ha!
I invest to grow my wealth, too. But if there is something I might choose or not choose to invest in, even remotely, which may line-up with my personal convictions, I'd rather follow that course of action than to blindly and obliviously get rich while forsaking what I believe in. And what I believe in might or might not be consistent with the broad arc or direction which the country's and the world's leaders want to take us.
If we do this stuff without at least a tacit ethical filter, we are not worthy of ourselves. And diversification, touted as so very necessary, will always serve to mitigate whatever good and ethical stuff we might attempt. You and I can both disagree about where the Ship of State is being steered, or we might approve. Either way, I guess what it boils down to for me is that we never can invest in a vacuum, even if were were to try.
Honolulu, Th'ving Day, 2025, 2:30 p.m.: sunny, 83 F. (Real-feel = 87F.) Simply spectacular. I'm getting ready to eat some dead bird parts. Yum.
@Crash, just don’t tell JD Vance about turkey who apparently dislikes turkey. Here what he said to the troop.
“Think about turkey,” he continued, before taking the speech in an unexpected direction.
“Who really likes ― be honest with yourselves — who really likes turkey?” he asked, prompting some soldiers in the audience to cheer.
“You’re all full of shit. Everybody who raised your hands,” Vance replied.
“I know. Think about it. And here’s how I know that every single one of you who raised your hand is lying to me. How many times do you roast an 18-pound turkey just randomly? Just, you know, a nice summer afternoon, we’re gonna go get an 18-pound turkey. Nobody does it, because turkey doesn’t actually taste that good.”
Can PE, PE10(CAPE), the economy, recessions, M2, inverted yield, high valuation, interest rates, GDP, inflation, high demand, demographic, Bullish sentiments, EARNINGS, the "experts"...predict STOCKS PERFORMANCE in the next 1-4-8 weeks(many times longer than that)? See (link).
None of the above can predict markets accurately in the next 1-4-16 weeks. Some of these are too early or too late, and some can be off for years too.
There is nothing here about YBB, which is a valuable poster. These are just facts.
Can PE, PE10(CAPE), the economy, recessions, M2, inverted yield, high valuation, interest rates, GDP, inflation, high demand, demographic, Bullish sentiments, EARNINGS, the "experts"...predict STOCKS PERFORMANCE in the next 1-4-8 weeks(many times longer than that)? See (link).
None of the above can predict markets accurately in the next 1-4-16 weeks. Some of these are too early or too late, and some can be off for years too.
There is nothing here about YBB, which is a valuable poster. These are just facts.
When any indicator, including sentiment, reaches never before or rarely before seen levels that is as good a buy signal as you could want. We had two of those last Thursday and Friday. Check this thread where I mentioned them. Also I know several traders who have been very successful using the CNN Fear and Greed index as a buy signal when it reaches single digits and synthesizing that with other indicators. Good traders are into synthesizing a variety of indicators into a coherent trading plan. Trading is not easy and anyone who tells you it is, is a crook, con man, and charlatan.
@Junkster, although AAII Sentiment was the most bearish recently on 11/12/25, the combination of sentiment and indicators seemed most bearish to me on 11/19/25 - OP for this thread. You correctly called that out.
Not only one should look at more than one indicator, one should also look at indicator histories.
Since then, indicators have bounced remarkably. AI clouds of concern suddenly disappeared and AI and tech rally is back on.
If some posters don't find this info useful, they can simply scroll through. I just ignore them and won't respond to their comments.
Junkster: When any indicator, including sentiment, reaches never before or rarely before seen levels that is as good a buy signal as you could want. We had two of those last Thursday and Friday. Check this thread where I mentioned them. Also I know several traders who have been very successful using the CNN Fear and Greed index as a buy signal when it reaches single digits and synthesizing that with other indicators. Good traders are into synthesizing a variety of indicators into a coherent trading plan. Trading is not easy and anyone who tells you it is, is a crook, con man, and charlatan.
And that’s exactly what we should be discussing. Posting weekly indicators without any interpretation is just that, raw data. No one ever said this would be easy. I’ve been making calls for years, though I no longer do so on this site. These unique situations only come up a few times a year, and that’s precisely why they matter.
Buy signals are generally easier to identify—though still not easy—than sell signals, especially after a major decline. My inbox was filled with articles urging people to sell stocks a couple of weeks ago, but I said to simply hold. Most of these commentators have been saying the same things for years. When the market drops just 4–5%, you suddenly see a flood of negative articles; when stocks go up, they pivot to talking about bubbles and overvaluation.
Often, markets decline because of truly unique situations: 2008: MBS crisis 2018: The Fed raised rates 3–4 times 2020: COVID 2022: The Fed committed to rapid rate hikes after inflation surged 2025: Liberation Day
These are the kinds of events that move markets: rare, specific, and often unpredictable.
@yogibb, i appreciate your contribution to this board as a whole. There is always something i learn and to expand my horizon of what others are watching. So, thank you.
Comments
So then: what kind of society do you want to live in? Do you want to promote or be controlled by policies which ignore human need? Or do you prefer an environment which does not promote moneymaking at the expense of people?
Market sentiment most often translates to: will the Markets rise or fall this week or this month? But what the Market may likely do will be either promoted or inhibited by political decisions. It wasn't long ago that "Mr. Peabody's Coal Train" was the last place you'd want to invest. But the current regime is bent on destroying even the option for people to ponder the damage that will continue to be done via fossil fuels and climate change. They have gone as far as to officially remove even that particular nomenclature from any official proceedings.
And of course, nothing is ever perfect, even with the best of intentions.
Happy Thanksgiving. I've a lot to be thankful for, in spite of myself.
I do like to consider the macro picture in making investment decisions. So, sure, politics may enter in, especially as regards issues of taxation and regulation. (The independence of the Federal Reserve might be considered under macro.) But there are many other things to consider under macro like consumer / investor sentiment indicators, relative strength of competing global economies, weather patterns and trends in the FX markets. And I’m not ignoring the increasingly chaotic state of U.S. governance (which extends beyond any single individual). Consider that too under macro. Give it due consideration. But, ISTM that is different from simply buying or selling based on your own political preference.
It is quite possible to have a terrible economy under democratic rule (like the U.S. throughout the 1930s). Conversely, it is quite possible to have a strong economy under despotic rule (like Germany in the late 30s). Do I approve of despotic rule? No. I’m just saying don’t conflate making money with politics. Not the same. I doubt you’d be wealthier today had you sold all your equities on January 20th and moved to cash. But, Oh - You’d feel so much better.
”Hitler achieved notable economic and diplomatic successes during the first five years of his rule. Hitler substantially revived the economy. Unemployment, so pivotal in bringing him to power, had dropped from 6 million to less than 1 million between 1933 and 1937, this at a time when the US was still wallowing in the Depression. National production and income doubled during the same period. This was partly owing to Hitler's rearmament policy, but also to more benign forms of public spending. The world's first major highway system, the autobahns, began snaking across the country, and there was talk of providing every citizen with a cheap, standardized car, the people's car, or Volkswagen.”
Productive thoughts. Of course, capitalism is the only game in town, and its basis is not the intention to do good. Capitalism has no intention. My point is that capitalism can be bent by humans to benefit already-uber-wealthy-oligarchs, or it can serve the general public. Why is it that, generally speaking, things are more egalitarian in Europe?
I recall a line from an episode in that wonderful tv series, "Thirtysomething." (Mel Harris! SO gorgeous!) So, a prospective employer was almost scolding Michael, saying: "We're not in the business of doing good; the good we might do happens in the course of doing business." A-ha!
I invest to grow my wealth, too. But if there is something I might choose or not choose to invest in, even remotely, which may line-up with my personal convictions, I'd rather follow that course of action than to blindly and obliviously get rich while forsaking what I believe in. And what I believe in might or might not be consistent with the broad arc or direction which the country's and the world's leaders want to take us.
If we do this stuff without at least a tacit ethical filter, we are not worthy of ourselves. And diversification, touted as so very necessary, will always serve to mitigate whatever good and ethical stuff we might attempt. You and I can both disagree about where the Ship of State is being steered, or we might approve. Either way, I guess what it boils down to for me is that we never can invest in a vacuum, even if were were to try.
Honolulu, Th'ving Day, 2025, 2:30 p.m.: sunny, 83 F. (Real-feel = 87F.) Simply spectacular. I'm getting ready to eat some dead bird parts. Yum.
Hmm. I wonder if it's too soon to make a turkey sandwich.
CNN Fear & Greed Index
NYSE %Above 50-dMA
SP500 %Above 50-dMA
The Death-cross, see (link).
Can PE, PE10(CAPE), the economy, recessions, M2, inverted yield, high valuation, interest rates, GDP, inflation, high demand, demographic, Bullish sentiments, EARNINGS, the "experts"...predict STOCKS PERFORMANCE in the next 1-4-8 weeks(many times longer than that)? See (link).
None of the above can predict markets accurately in the next 1-4-16 weeks. Some of these are too early or too late, and some can be off for years too.
There is nothing here about YBB, which is a valuable poster. These are just facts.
Not only one should look at more than one indicator, one should also look at indicator histories.
Since then, indicators have bounced remarkably. AI clouds of concern suddenly disappeared and AI and tech rally is back on.
If some posters don't find this info useful, they can simply scroll through. I just ignore them and won't respond to their comments.
Buy signals are generally easier to identify—though still not easy—than sell signals, especially after a major decline. My inbox was filled with articles urging people to sell stocks a couple of weeks ago, but I said to simply hold. Most of these commentators have been saying the same things for years. When the market drops just 4–5%, you suddenly see a flood of negative articles; when stocks go up, they pivot to talking about bubbles and overvaluation.
Often, markets decline because of truly unique situations:
2008: MBS crisis
2018: The Fed raised rates 3–4 times
2020: COVID
2022: The Fed committed to rapid rate hikes after inflation surged
2025: Liberation Day
These are the kinds of events that move markets: rare, specific, and often unpredictable.