Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
"In a new YouGov poll conducted for The Economist, fewer than half of Republicans say they 'strongly approve' of Trump, and only a third of Republicans approve strongly of his handling of inflation and prices."
"All of this adds up to a president who thinks a lot about gold and his legacy. On Friday, Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo observed that, these days, the political world around Trump 'has a feeling of drift, spectacle and fragmentation. Trump’s ballroom epitomizes it— crass, stupid, vulgar, unacceptable and yet ultimately meaningless. It’s the full-size version of having his stacked Kennedy Center board, of which he is the chairman, rename the institution after him…. These all have the feeling of a man who is bored, tapped out, losing coherence and energy and who others are trying to keep distracted.'"
"The U.S. labor market is ending 2025 on a sour note. While companies didn’t resort to full-scale layoffs, many did trim head count, especially later in the year. Many also stopped hiring. Fewer employees quit jobs. Wage gains slowed. The unemployment rate drifted higher over the course of the year and last month hit its highest level in four years."
@FD1000, What are your thoughts regarding the current state of the labor market and the economy in general?
If you look up the definition of internet troll, you see this guys pic.
He just throws out MAGA propaganda, knowing full well that nobody here is falling for it. However, as far as taking the bait, a number of posters here seem to love it.
It's really not a debate, though. Far from it.
Correct. Though, while some may get aggravated or fall into his form of distraction. In other cases, he simply becomes a foil. I always view threads like this as an opportunity to set the record straight. In a sense it is like the proverbial 'foot in the door". Many times people have no idea how they create the option to clarify or even inform by mentioning easily disprovable fallacies, conspiracies or half-truths. Falsehoods do not hold up under simple scrutiny.
Employment stagnation, diminishing wage increases and higher inflation only serve to make the middle class weaker. Trumpeting that they raked in $200 billion in new taxes in less than a year is not the flex they want it to be, either.
U.S. gross domestic product, a sum of all goods and services produced in the sprawling U.S. economy, expanded by 4.3% in the July-September period, the Commerce Department said in its initial reading of third-quarter growth. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a gain of 3.2%. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s primary inflation gauge, rose 2.8% during the period, and 2.9% for core which excludes food and energy.
============
OMG—who could have anticipated that economists might make mistakes, both at the beginning of the year and again lately?
I did
And as usual, we are going to see posts about everything else, except a simple acknowledgement.
If the data is seemingly good, it is trumpeted. The bad data? Buried, dismissed, ignored, let the gaslighting commence. @JD_co Yes, this economy has been resilient for several years. Note that the markets are not exactly rejoicing here.
There are clear signs that none of this is making its way to Main Street or Joe Average. Companies have stopped hiring & higher prices are crushing low income people. Small businesses are barely surviving.
Biden had a 4.7% in Q3 of 2023. You can be absolutely certain that no one in maga, saw it as a validation of his economic policies. Nor did I, for that matter. Rational people require much more than that. Irrational people seize on what suits them. In times of great volatility and change, numbers are difficult to attribute as well. Q3 is also typically a robust quarter in many years. I await the analysis of what drove Q3 growth. And whether it can be maintained. A historic level of government spending (and debt creation) is also fueling GDP.
Three Theories of What’s Going On With the Contradictory Economic Data
Economic data never tells a perfectly clear story, but lately the contradictions have been especially jarring. Just a week apart, the government delivered two sharply conflicting messages. One report showed job growth stalling and unemployment rising. Another showed the economy expanding at a blistering 4.3 percent annual rate — more than double the pace of the first half of the year.
Are we sliding toward recession or entering a new boom?
The uncomfortable answer is that the data is unusually foggy (and foggy because of the normal challenges of measuring a large and complicated economy; I have no reason to suspect the data was politicized). There are three plausible interpretations — and while the truth is likely some combination of all three, policymakers cannot afford to assume they know the answer for sure.
The most pessimistic interpretation is that the labor market data is right and G.D.P. growth is being overstated. Both employment and G.D.P. figures are revised over time, but historically, G.D.P. revisions tend to be larger. When the two conflict, it is usually safer to trust the jobs numbers. Moreover, the employment data run through November, while the G.D.P. figure reflects the third quarter, which ends in September. On this view, Tuesday’s weak labor market could show up as slower growth in the fourth quarter G.D.P. report.
I am skeptical of this explanation. One well-measured component of economic growth is consumer spending, which represents more than two-thirds of the overall U.S. economy. And American consumers have been spending at a surprisingly rapid pace this year, based on a combination of lower-income consumers stretching their borrowing and higher-income ones spending some of their newfound stock market wealth.
The most optimistic interpretation flips the story around: G.D.P. is right, and the labor market data are misleading and will eventually be revised upward. There is some support for this view. Private-sector job growth has been solid, and headline figures of total jobs have been dragged down by a sharp decline in federal employment — 168,000 jobs lost over the past two months.
Still, there are countervailing signals. Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, has argued that the official data may be overstating job growth and, in fact, the economy may have lost jobs in recent months. In particular, the surveys used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to compile the jobs numbers can go awry when there are abrupt changes in business creation or business failure.
The third possibility is the most intriguing: Both data sets are broadly correct. G.D.P. really is booming — but it is being produced with little or no additional labor. If so, productivity growth in the third quarter must have been extraordinarily strong, roughly matching the G.D.P. growth rate given flat aggregate work hours.
If true, some would see this as the long-awaited arrival of artificial-intelligence-driven productivity growth — output rising as machines replace workers. I remain skeptical. The evidence so far does not support large-scale job displacement from A.I., and it is always risky to draw sweeping conclusions from a single, volatile quarter of data. Most businesses will take a while to figure out how to adapt A.I. into their work flows, so I expect and hope big productivity gains are coming; I just do not see them as having happened yet. A more prosaic explanation is that growth is concentrated in productivity-intensive sectors, such as data centers, that generate substantial output with relatively few workers.
It could take years before we know which of these explanations is correct — if we ever do at all. The jobs and growth data will be regularly revised based on more comprehensive tax data and more complete surveys; several years from now, the official government data for jobs and growth in late 2025 will likely read very differently from how they do today. It would also take a few years to convince me that we were already enjoying an A.I.-fueled productivity boom and not just a volatile, temporary blip.
The confusion in the economic picture is not limited to growth and jobs. The inflation picture is also murky. Inflation has hovered around 3 percent for nearly two years, but the latest Consumer Price Index report showed a notable step down, raising fresh questions about data collection and measurement, particularly in the wake of the recent collection disruption of the government shutdown.
When interpreting the macro economy, it is always best to look across a broad range of indicators and over longer periods of time. When a single volatile data release suggests the economy has suddenly turned sharply for better or worse, it is usually wrong; reality tends to be smoother and more moderate.
It’s probably true, then, that reality in this case is smoother and more moderate. Unfortunately, there’s a reason I say probably — sometimes it isn’t that way. Using the latest data to modestly update the views you use for business planning or conducting monetary policy creates the risk of falling behind the curve. In this case, however, we don’t yet know which curve we would be falling behind.
Comment: "When interpreting the macro economy, it is always best to look across a broad range of indicators and over longer periods of time. When a single volatile data release suggests the economy has suddenly turned sharply for better or worse, it is usually wrong; reality tends to be smoother and more moderate."
@FD1000 would rather believe press handouts from Dictator Trump. (That works for both of them.)
Agreeing with DrVenture, below, I wouldn't accept a press release from any party, POTUS or politician ever, as truth or gospel.
Thanks @Old_Joe I was hoping that someone would post an interpretation, no time for me much this last week due to unexpected circumstances.
To be clear, I wouldn't accept a press release from any party, POTUS or politician ever, as truth or gospel.
Those who believe their own, while disbelieving everyone else are simply Farken Dumbas's. But, they cannot fathom others do not thinks liker them. Seriously, "no inflation trump" says, and his voters are not offended by the BS? They lap it up and disseminate it? It is like talking to a cat, and thinking they may pick something up.
A quick highlight of the relevant points, from my POV:
My comment: Since no one knows what is going on with this data, anyone attempting to take credit, or attribute it to current policy (tariffs specifically) is not to be trusted and certainly constitutes spreading propaganda. It is not validation. Anyone who doesn't anticipate the obvious reaction to that, is living alone in their head.
Three Theories of What’s Going On With the Contradictory Economic Data
Economic data never tells a perfectly clear story, but lately the contradictions have been especially jarring. Just a week apart, the government delivered two sharply conflicting messages. One report showed job growth stalling and unemployment rising. Another showed the economy expanding at a blistering 4.3 percent annual rate — more than double the pace of the first half of the year.
Are we sliding toward recession or entering a new boom?
The uncomfortable answer is that the data is unusually foggy (and foggy because of the normal challenges of measuring a large and complicated economy; I have no reason to suspect the data was politicized). There are three plausible interpretations — and while the truth is likely some combination of all three, policymakers cannot afford to assume they know the answer for sure.
The most pessimistic interpretation is that the labor market data is right and G.D.P. growth is being overstated. Both employment and G.D.P. figures are revised over time, but historically, G.D.P. revisions tend to be larger. When the two conflict, it is usually safer to trust the jobs numbers. Moreover, the employment data run through November, while the G.D.P. figure reflects the third quarter, which ends in September. On this view, Tuesday’s weak labor market could show up as slower growth in the fourth quarter G.D.P. report.
I am skeptical of this explanation. One well-measured component of economic growth is consumer spending, which represents more than two-thirds of the overall U.S. economy. And American consumers have been spending at a surprisingly rapid pace this year, based on a combination of lower-income consumers stretching their borrowing and higher-income ones spending some of their newfound stock market wealth.
The most optimistic interpretation flips the story around: G.D.P. is right, and the labor market data are misleading and will eventually be revised upward. There is some support for this view. Private-sector job growth has been solid, and headline figures of total jobs have been dragged down by a sharp decline in federal employment — 168,000 jobs lost over the past two months.
Still, there are countervailing signals. Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, has argued that the official data may be overstating job growth and, in fact, the economy may have lost jobs in recent months. In particular, the surveys used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to compile the jobs numbers can go awry when there are abrupt changes in business creation or business failure.
The third possibility is the most intriguing: Both data sets are broadly correct. G.D.P. really is booming — but it is being produced with little or no additional labor. If so, productivity growth in the third quarter must have been extraordinarily strong, roughly matching the G.D.P. growth rate given flat aggregate work hours.
If true, some would see this as the long-awaited arrival of artificial-intelligence-driven productivity growth — output rising as machines replace workers. I remain skeptical. The evidence so far does not support large-scale job displacement from A.I., and it is always risky to draw sweeping conclusions from a single, volatile quarter of data. Most businesses will take a while to figure out how to adapt A.I. into their work flows, so I expect and hope big productivity gains are coming; I just do not see them as having happened yet. A more prosaic explanation is that growth is concentrated in productivity-intensive sectors, such as data centers, that generate substantial output with relatively few workers.
It could take years before we know which of these explanations is correct — if we ever do at all. The jobs and growth data will be regularly revised based on more comprehensive tax data and more complete surveys; several years from now, the official government data for jobs and growth in late 2025 will likely read very differently from how they do today. It would also take a few years to convince me that we were already enjoying an A.I.-fueled productivity boom and not just a volatile, temporary blip.
The confusion in the economic picture is not limited to growth and jobs. The inflation picture is also murky. Inflation has hovered around 3 percent for nearly two years, but the latest Consumer Price Index report showed a notable step down, raising fresh questions about data collection and measurement, particularly in the wake of the recent collection disruption of the government shutdown.
When interpreting the macro economy, it is always best to look across a broad range of indicators and over longer periods of time. When a single volatile data release suggests the economy has suddenly turned sharply for better or worse, it is usually wrong; reality tends to be smoother and more moderate.
It’s probably true, then, that reality in this case is smoother and more moderate. Unfortunately, there’s a reason I say probably — sometimes it isn’t that way. Using the latest data to modestly update the views you use for business planning or conducting monetary policy creates the risk of falling behind the curve. In this case, however, we don’t yet know which curve we would be falling behind.
Comment: "When interpreting the macro economy, it is always best to look across a broad range of indicators and over longer periods of time. When a single volatile data release suggests the economy has suddenly turned sharply for better or worse, it is usually wrong; reality tends to be smoother and more moderate." ...
@FD1000, trump fires the statisticians, then shuts down the government, and suddenly the number looks good coming out of the government. That’s not leadership, that’s fraud with a press release.
Yesterday, the SP500 made another all time high. In 2025 bond holders and international stocks also made money. Oops, another bad prediction by economists and Dems.
In 2025, gov jobs were lost and private sectors added jobs = great execution.
"Fifty-five years later, after surviving bouts of extreme weather, changing consumer tastes and global trade disruptions, the Westside, Iowa, farmer faces an unexpected risk from the man he backed for U.S. president: Donald Trump."
"Eight ranchers in rural America said that they still supported Trump because of his stances on immigration and other issues, after voting for him in the last presidential race. But for some of them, Trump’s interference in the beef market shook their confidence in him. 'He's waged war against a group of producers that literally have no real effect on the price of beef in the store,' said Todd Hertzog, owner and operator of beef processor Hertzog Meat Company in Butler, Missouri."
"High prices for a range of goods, including beef, coffee and electricity, have upset consumers and frustrated Trump. A recent Commerce Department report showed annual inflation rose at its fastest pace in nearly 1-1/2 years in September."
Comments: Although Donald J. Trump is fond of the Big Mac, he knows very little about the beef industry. His knee-jerk policies have threatened ranchers' livelihoods. Surprisingly, many of these ranchers still support Trump!
Comments
say they 'strongly approve' of Trump, and only a third of Republicans approve strongly
of his handling of inflation and prices."
"All of this adds up to a president who thinks a lot about gold and his legacy.
On Friday, Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo observed that, these days, the political world around Trump
'has a feeling of drift, spectacle and fragmentation. Trump’s ballroom epitomizes it— crass, stupid, vulgar,
unacceptable and yet ultimately meaningless. It’s the full-size version of having his stacked Kennedy Center
board, of which he is the chairman, rename the institution after him…. These all have the feeling of a man
who is bored, tapped out, losing coherence and energy and who others are trying to keep distracted.'"
"The U.S. labor market is ending 2025 on a sour note.
While companies didn’t resort to full-scale layoffs, many did trim head count, especially later in the year.
Many also stopped hiring. Fewer employees quit jobs. Wage gains slowed.
The unemployment rate drifted higher over the course of the year
and last month hit its highest level in four years."
@FD1000,
What are your thoughts regarding the current state of the labor market and the economy in general?
U.S. gross domestic product, a sum of all goods and services produced in the sprawling U.S. economy, expanded by 4.3% in the July-September period, the Commerce Department said in its initial reading of third-quarter growth. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a gain of 3.2%.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s primary inflation gauge, rose 2.8% during the period, and 2.9% for core which excludes food and energy.
============
OMG—who could have anticipated that economists might make mistakes, both at the beginning of the year and again lately?
I did
And as usual, we are going to see posts about everything else, except a simple acknowledgement.
Sounds so familiar.
There are clear signs that none of this is making its way to Main Street or Joe Average. Companies have stopped hiring & higher prices are crushing low income people. Small businesses are barely surviving.
Biden had a 4.7% in Q3 of 2023. You can be absolutely certain that no one in maga, saw it as a validation of his economic policies. Nor did I, for that matter. Rational people require much more than that. Irrational people seize on what suits them. In times of great volatility and change, numbers are difficult to attribute as well. Q3 is also typically a robust quarter in many years. I await the analysis of what drove Q3 growth. And whether it can be maintained. A historic level of government spending (and debt creation) is also fueling GDP.
No, there's nothing "simple" about all of this, with the exception of FD1000's simplistic interpretation.
Following is a current economic essay in The New York Times:
Three Theories of What’s Going On With the Contradictory Economic Data
Comment: "When interpreting the macro economy, it is always best to look across a broad range of indicators and over longer periods of time. When a single volatile data release suggests the economy has suddenly turned sharply for better or worse, it is usually wrong; reality tends to be smoother and more moderate."
@FD1000 would rather believe press handouts from Dictator Trump. (That works for both of them.)
Agreeing with DrVenture, below, I wouldn't accept a press release from any party, POTUS or politician ever, as truth or gospel.
To be clear, I wouldn't accept a press release from any party, POTUS or politician ever, as truth or gospel.
Those who believe their own, while disbelieving everyone else are simply Farken Dumbas's. But, they cannot fathom others do not thinks liker them. Seriously, "no inflation trump" says, and his voters are not offended by the BS? They lap it up and disseminate it? It is like talking to a cat, and thinking they may pick something up.
My comment: Since no one knows what is going on with this data, anyone attempting to take credit, or attribute it to current policy (tariffs specifically) is not to be trusted and certainly constitutes spreading propaganda. It is not validation. Anyone who doesn't anticipate the obvious reaction to that, is living alone in their head.
And this^
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/an-a-economy-my-a
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/lies-damned-lies-and-trump-speeches
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-new-k-in-america
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/12/23/treasury-official-joe-lavorgna-talks-robust-q3-gdp-numbers.html
Who can trust one of the most biased economists, Krugman.
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/krugman-trump-global-recession-2016-231055
Yesterday, the SP500 made another all time high.
In 2025 bond holders and international stocks also made money.
Oops, another bad prediction by economists and Dems.
In 2025, gov jobs were lost and private sectors added jobs = great execution.
Any time you you beat markets or even better, beat markets with a better risk reward performance, it is a free lunch.
BTW, over the years I have been an equal fund trasher when a fund doesn't perform. The time will come in the future.
Example: SCHD used to be a fund I liked until 3 years ago. No mercy. Hope doesn't make you money.
Thank you Mr. Hindsight.
and global trade disruptions, the Westside, Iowa, farmer faces an unexpected risk from the man
he backed for U.S. president: Donald Trump."
"Eight ranchers in rural America said that they still supported Trump because of his stances on immigration
and other issues, after voting for him in the last presidential race. But for some of them, Trump’s interference
in the beef market shook their confidence in him. 'He's waged war against a group of producers
that literally have no real effect on the price of beef in the store,' said Todd Hertzog, owner and operator
of beef processor Hertzog Meat Company in Butler, Missouri."
"High prices for a range of goods, including beef, coffee and electricity, have upset consumers
and frustrated Trump. A recent Commerce Department report showed annual inflation rose
at its fastest pace in nearly 1-1/2 years in September."
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/not-happy-trump-supporter-cattle-ranchers-hit-by-push-lower-beef-prices-2025-12-24/
Comments: Although Donald J. Trump is fond of the Big Mac, he knows very little about the beef industry.
His knee-jerk policies have threatened ranchers' livelihoods.
Surprisingly, many of these ranchers still support Trump!