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Open Thread: What Are You Buying/Selling/Pondering
Bio and pharma have had an interesting down ride the past few days, but have recovered today. I recall SBIO being down about 7% earlier in the day. Our house is full up of what we want at this time; so there won't be any sells today, and no spare cash to move to something else. If some sector rotations become stronger, we may sell a portion of a holding to move into a sector not related to any current holdings. Although Europe (equity down) and Euro currency strength put a small whack on HEDJ today, we remain ahead of this area far enough that we will stay put for today.
@MFO Members: Sometime during the next week I will be meeting with my Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor to discuss liquidating all of my stock, both common and preferred, positions, and all but a couple of bonds. At the urging of my wife, I bringing an end to my investing life. Believe me, I will miss the action, but enough is enough. I'm lucky being financially secure and now can sit-back and enjoy the fruits of my labor. My action in no way reflect any pending market correction or crash, I'm still very bullish !. Regards, Ted
@Ted, congratulations on both your investments and your wife!!
Yesterday I reduced quite a few of my US focused mutual funds a bit due to the reversals in the S&P and Russell 2000. I bought a uranium miner (CCJ) last week and I'd be happy to add to my healthcare funds (SBIO, HQL, PRHSX) if the weakness of the past few days continues.
The Driehaus Frontier Emerging Markets fund that was registered last November might finally launch tomorrow. I'm not likely to make any quick purchases, but I will be paying attention to how the portfolio develops.
Wow. Ted steals the show. You picked a good time to exit (and have me trembling a bit here). Continue to post often! (My prediction is you won't be able to stay out of the market for long.)
Not many changes in 2015. Some profit taking from PRNEX. (Picked up a bunch at fire-sale prices in December and January.) Cut back on DODIX out of concern for bonds. Slight shift away from DODBX into RPGAX past month or so. The latter should hold up better if we enter a bear market. None were very significant moves. For the most part related to the taking of IRA distributions.
At first, I thought Ted was spoofing us. Now, I believe him to be serious.
I think we have to wish Ted well in the coming years. Having been an investor for many years ... well, it is just hard to park all this knowledge gained through the years on a shelf. Once a hunting dog ... always, a hunting dog. My late father, was a good investor and I learned many things and strategies from him; and, I kept his portfolio alive and productive once it became time for him to step back. Perhaps, Ted is stepping back for reasons unknown to us. In time, the day will come for all of us ... to step back.
Ted, I sincerely wish you the very best.
And, thank you for all the links, perspectives, and thoughts that you brought to the board. It is much appreciated.
Congrats, Ted! Thank you for all the great posts! I have found some phenomenal funds through your articles...and I sure hope you keep posting them. I am buying Altegris/KKR Commitments Fund, thanks to an article you posted last week!
"As just described, it appears that today's situation is most similar to back in 2001, with most, although not all, categories of funds in an overvalued pattern. If it turns out that 2001's rather dismal subsequent performances serve as a guide as to what to expect as a consequence of this overvaluation, it would seem that many 5 year fund returns going forward may turn out to be similarly disappointing.
To make the most of today's opportunities, one should be focusing on funds that are most undervalued, or at a minimum, those that are fairly priced. These are International stock/eft funds (especially Emerging Markets), Natural Resources funds, Financial funds, Energy funds, and Precious Metal funds. Of course, an investor should take into consideration their own level of risk tolerance before investing since some of these categories of investments might "go beyond" what the typical fund investor is comfortable with."
I sold half of my MACSX and moved it to SFGIX. I closed an orphan position in DIBRX. I bought some BRK.B
00BY,
As you know SFGIX is up 16% YTD. And, being I recall hearing or reading from Mr. Fosters recent conference call that he does not expect much for alpha for now, why the 50% move from MACSX to SFGIX?
During the month of April, I have not been doing much of anything as I feel the market in general is too overvalued to do much of anything. I did sell out of my equity spiff that I opened back in September/October as we entered earnings reporting season, this month, with a nice gain.
In my research, I have found that the S&P 500 Index is selling on a TTM P/E Ratio at 21.0 and on Forward Estimates at 18.1. In comparison, my portfolio scores at a TTM P/E Ratio of 18.7 and on Forward Estimates at 17.5.
In addition, Morningstar’s Market Valuation Graph has the market, in general, selling at a premium of three percent.
Currently, I am finding that the three best performing equity sectors over the past thirty days have been energy, materials and communication services within my portfolio. And, form a style orientation perspective, LCV, MCG and LCB has been the three best performers overtaking SCG, SCB, and SCV.
So for now, score me as just watching as I am now enjoying watching some of the buys that I made during the first quarter make upward headway. These buys were mostly in funds that had a good bit of foreign holdings generally heavy towards Greater Europe plus a few funds that were heavy in the energy and materials sectors but were also global in nature. Emerging markets remain at about five percent of my overall allocation while my allocation to foreign is at about 35%.
Recently, I enjoyed reading Dr. Madell’s most recent newsletter that tells how to find value in an overvalued market. I have linked it below for those that might have an interest in reading it. It is titled … “With the market overpriced here's what to do."
Comments
Our house is full up of what we want at this time; so there won't be any sells today, and no spare cash to move to something else. If some sector rotations become stronger, we may sell a portion of a holding to move into a sector not related to any current holdings.
Although Europe (equity down) and Euro currency strength put a small whack on HEDJ today, we remain ahead of this area far enough that we will stay put for today.
Regards,
Ted
I get it. As some say, if you won the game, why continue to play it.
Best Regards,
Mona
Is this, Sell in May and Go Away?
Skeet
Regards,
Ted
Wishing you the best- OJ
PS- hope that you plan to stay around and raise hell here on MFO.
Yesterday I reduced quite a few of my US focused mutual funds a bit due to the reversals in the S&P and Russell 2000. I bought a uranium miner (CCJ) last week and I'd be happy to add to my healthcare funds (SBIO, HQL, PRHSX) if the weakness of the past few days continues.
The Driehaus Frontier Emerging Markets fund that was registered last November might finally launch tomorrow. I'm not likely to make any quick purchases, but I will be paying attention to how the portfolio develops.
Continue to post often!
(My prediction is you won't be able to stay out of the market for long.)
At first, I thought Ted was spoofing us. Now, I believe him to be serious.
I think we have to wish Ted well in the coming years. Having been an investor for many years ... well, it is just hard to park all this knowledge gained through the years on a shelf. Once a hunting dog ... always, a hunting dog. My late father, was a good investor and I learned many things and strategies from him; and, I kept his portfolio alive and productive once it became time for him to step back. Perhaps, Ted is stepping back for reasons unknown to us. In time, the day will come for all of us ... to step back.
Ted, I sincerely wish you the very best.
And, thank you for all the links, perspectives, and thoughts that you brought to the board. It is much appreciated.
Old_Skeet
Congratulations!
As they say - It's only the market... It's not your wife and it's not your life.
I wish you all the very best.
Flack
Regards,
Ted
funds-newsletter.com/may15
What Funds to Consider In Today's Market
"As just described, it appears that today's situation is most similar to back in 2001, with most, although not all, categories of funds in an overvalued pattern. If it turns out that 2001's rather dismal subsequent performances serve as a guide as to what to expect as a consequence of this overvaluation, it would seem that many 5 year fund returns going forward may turn out to be similarly disappointing.
To make the most of today's opportunities, one should be focusing on funds that are most undervalued, or at a minimum, those that are fairly priced. These are International stock/eft funds (especially Emerging Markets), Natural Resources funds, Financial funds, Energy funds, and Precious Metal funds. Of course, an investor should take into consideration their own level of risk tolerance before investing since some of these categories of investments might "go beyond" what the typical fund investor is comfortable with."
Also a Model Portfolio recommendation:
funds-newsletter.com/apr15
I am watching IVAL
I sold half of my MACSX and moved it to SFGIX. I closed an orphan position in DIBRX. I bought some BRK.B
As you know SFGIX is up 16% YTD. And, being I recall hearing or reading from Mr. Fosters recent conference call that he does not expect much for alpha for now, why the 50% move from MACSX to SFGIX?
Best Regards,
Mona
"Spend the afternoon. You can't take it with you." -Annie Dillard, author
During the month of April, I have not been doing much of anything as I feel the market in general is too overvalued to do much of anything. I did sell out of my equity spiff that I opened back in September/October as we entered earnings reporting season, this month, with a nice gain.
In my research, I have found that the S&P 500 Index is selling on a TTM P/E Ratio at 21.0 and on Forward Estimates at 18.1. In comparison, my portfolio scores at a TTM P/E Ratio of 18.7 and on Forward Estimates at 17.5.
In addition, Morningstar’s Market Valuation Graph has the market, in general, selling at a premium of three percent.
Currently, I am finding that the three best performing equity sectors over the past thirty days have been energy, materials and communication services within my portfolio. And, form a style orientation perspective, LCV, MCG and LCB has been the three best performers overtaking SCG, SCB, and SCV.
So for now, score me as just watching as I am now enjoying watching some of the buys that I made during the first quarter make upward headway. These buys were mostly in funds that had a good bit of foreign holdings generally heavy towards Greater Europe plus a few funds that were heavy in the energy and materials sectors but were also global in nature. Emerging markets remain at about five percent of my overall allocation while my allocation to foreign is at about 35%.
Recently, I enjoyed reading Dr. Madell’s most recent newsletter that tells how to find value in an overvalued market. I have linked it below for those that might have an interest in reading it. It is titled … “With the market overpriced here's what to do."
http://funds-newsletter.com/may15-newsletter/may15.htm
I wish all … “Good Investing.”
Old_Skeet
Archaic
Oh, yeah, I am selling JAHYX and buying HFRZX.