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What Are You ... Buying ... Selling ... and/or Pondering? (Summer 2017)
talk about paying way extra to those who bet on the judges deciding the next beauty queen
Just pondering.....last I heard we had 3 carrier groups heading for Korea. I guess they made it....have not heard. I wonder what makes up a group and what are the carrier's names. Silly me.....I forgot. Since we seem to want to blow things up on the board lately. I do hope Trump isn't in France to learn how to arreter.... well, you know how the French are. I see the VIX is so low, it's at....well, a Lehman moment. Yet I see nothing but blue skies and sunshine. Could it be right? Glad I don't own banks. Swore them off with gin. MLPs and whiskey....yep! Some things country boys just won't do anymore. Well, got to go. The sun's shining and the Dukester's been quite prolific in the back yard.
p.s. I thought better of you guys than to debase yourselves with seeing things get deflated.
Old_Skeet is still with his current investment objective and that is to take excess portfolio cash and invest it into hybrid type funds. Curently, hybrid funds make up about 45% of my overall portfolio and I am wanting to increase the hybrid allocation by another 5% over time.
In review, at the first part of July a recalibration was made to the barometer's earnings feed, due to better 3rd quarter earnings expectations, resulting in a barometer reading of 153 putting the reading in fair value territority with positive bias movement. As of Friday's market close (7/21) the barometer produced a reading of 145. With this new reading the barometer has now moved from the upper part of its fair value range to the lower part of fair value range with negative bias movement. Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the S&P 500 Index over a lower barometer reading. Bias is determined by the direction of reading movement.
Have a great summer ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
I own the A share version of Thornburg Global Opportunities THOAX. It has been one of my better performers in the growth area of my portfolio through the years.
Indeed a good fund.
2. Sell shares to reduce total value to original amount purchased. You will owe taxes on the gain. Actual gain depends whether you identify the specific shares sold or whether you use the "average" of basis. Taxes owed may be $0 to as much as 18%, depending on your AGI in the year sold.
3. Gift shares to a child. They inherit your basis and can sell shares with perhaps lower tax consequences. Downside is if applying for college scholarship, this must be declared as their asset.
4. Do nothing, allow shares to be inherited at your death when beneficiary receives a step-up in basis.
5. Do nothing, watch gain disappear during a bear market, then you can sell with no tax consequences (not such a great idea, but a lot of people get so hung up on taxes, they default to this).
BobC did a good job of providing some avenues to consider.
In addition, I'm thinking you are asking this question as this security is held in a taxable account?
With this in mind ... below is a thought.
If you are reinvesting fund capital gain distributions and dividends start taking them in cash rather than reinvesting them. I am not sure of the size of this position within your portfolio; but, if it is a sizeable poistion you might also consider selling shares over time and at a measured pace keeping in mind taxes that would be owed. No since in getting thrown into a higher tax bracket because of sizeable lump sum sale proceeds.
I should really find me a good financial person to review my portfolio.
If you are talking Roth and you don't need the money soon, just leave it alone, or diversify into broader funds.
A update on Old_Skeet's barometer.
At the beginning of July the earnings feed was recalibrated and as a result the barometer began the month with a reading of 153 which put it above the mid point reading in fair value of 150. At this time the 500 Index reading was 2423. I generally close the month on the last Friday of each month with the exception being in December which is closed on the 31st. This month, the barometer closed the month with a reading of 143 which based upon it's scaling put the S&P 500 Index in the lower range of overvalued at a reading of 2472. Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower barometer reading.
According to the Elder Impluse System there was much consolidation with the 500 Index that took place during June with some good upward price movement that followed in July as the systems signal changed from blue to green. Generally, with a signal reading above the 65 moving average a green signal indicates increase the position recommedation, a blue signal indicates hold the position recommedation, while a red signal above the 65 moving average indicates hold the position recommendation; however, should the price drop below the 65 moving average then the red signal becomes a trim position recommedation.
It is interesting, back in November coming off the recent Presidential election the Elder Impluse System and the Barometer both gave increase position signal recommendations. With this, I have now begun to follow the Elder Impluse System and compare it to barometer readings. Currently, the barometer has three feeds a breath feed, an earnings feed and a technical strength feed.
Within my own portfolio during the first part of July I continued to take excess cash and expand my footprint in hybrid funds.
Being a retail investor, the above information is posted for informational purposes only and is information that I use to help me govern my own portfolio. It is not meant as investment advice.
Wishing all ... "Good Investing."
Curious - Has your valuation style/method changed over the past 5 years?
Today's post sounds like 70% or more technical analysis (looking at market trends, relationships, movements). I respect those who do technical - but am not a practitioner myself. In the past I considered you largely a value investor with a firm focus on what your indicators suggested to be fair valuation. (However, your use of seasonality had technical aspects.)
If you are still largely value focused, where do you see various domestic indexes (for example the NASDAQ or DJ) in relation to fair/reasonable value? 10% overvalued? 20% overvalued? etc.
Personally, I've tilted a bit more in the direction of international holdings over the past 6-12 months for both valuation reasons and what I view as chaos in our government and proposed policies that may inhibit growth. I'm not alone on that, as several others have moved in that direction recently. Which international markets, if any, do you favor now?
I concur with your last sentence. Folks in need of personal financial advice need to consult a qualified, preferably fee-based, financial advisor.
Thank you for your comment and question(s).
I am still much a value investor as my style orientation is 40% value, 35% blend and 25% growth and I general add to or open new positions when I can find value. I too have been raising my allocation towards foreign assets; and, thus far this year have increased my foreign holdings from 30% to 35% range. Currently, I'm thinking 40% foreign will be my upper limit to foreign exposure.
As far as technical analysis goes I am still with fundmentals a good bit and that is the reason for the earnings feed in the barometer. And, yes the breath feed and technical strength feed would be considered technical analysis tools. But, I feel the breath feed is very important in using technical analysis to gain a perspective on how broad base a rally driven by fundamentals might be. My thinking is that to a large part stocks follow corporate earnings.
I don't follow the Nasdaq or Dow Jones much because I am not as active now in retirement that I once was years back and, with this, I have been increasing my footprint in hybrid funds that have a history of throtteling their allocations based upon their managers read on the markets. When I was actively engaging the markets my annual returns on my master portfolio were north of 15% including cash. Now, that I have begun to moved towards a larger allocation in hybrid funds my master portfolio's investment returns have dropped and are now in the 10%-11% range and when cash is included, about 9%. Year-to-date my investment return is 9.1%. Based upon my amount of principal a 9% annual return is more than what is currently needed to meet my cash needs. So with the excess cash I have been and plan to continue to expand my footprint in hybrid funds. This might change in a good stock market pullback where I'll most likely become a buyer of equity funds when I feel better vaue can be had.
And, yes ... I believe investors should consult qualified financial advisors before they follow the postings made on public boards. Understand, I am a retail investor who chose to post what I am doing for information purposes only because in the past some of the board's members asked me to post my positioning and thinking. This lead to my taking over and maintaining this thread after it's former host (Scott) left the board a few years back along with my desire to keep it going. From my perspective it has been one of the better on-going threads.
I hope this helps answer your question(s) and I have not rambled as I typed this. In addition, please forgive spelling errors as I do not have spell check on my tablet that travels with me on trips.
Thanks again for stopping by and reading and most of all to those that make comment thus keeping the thread active, on-going and engaged with postings and exchanges.
You more than answered my question. I appreciate these threads and read all the comments. Haven't shared any buys or sells recently because I've maintained pretty much the same allocation for probably 6 months or longer. The tilt to international was accomplished with a small investment in an international equity index fund around year end and also some gradual movement out of DODBX in favor of RPGAX. Since both are part of my balanced category, that shift hasn't affected the overall allocation (but the latter has done better this year).
Like you, I'm retired and like hybrid/allocation funds. And, like you I suspect, I'm at the high end of my allocation to cash, thinking valuations are rich and have been so awhile. Won't toss a cash % out there because the percentage wouldn't be very meaningful. First, different investors define their cash position differently (I include some bonds) and secondly, if you're into allocation funds they're likely holding an extra dose of cash for you - depending on manager and type of fund.
Thanks & Wishing you well.
Have rolled my 401 into the IRA at Fidelity.....too many company restrictions. Added FTIPX and FUSVX to replace the indices I lost. Everything had to come over in cash from company funds. Brokerage could stay as is. Also added to FMIJX and GLFOX also VWINX. Still have a mountain of cash. Will now wait a while to see how things go. I'm in no rush.