Sentiment indicators are contrarian.
AAII Sentiment has been negative most of Q1 and Q2, more so in Q2 and was the worst around mid-June. For its believers, these were the times to buy/add, or at least hold (not sell), as difficult as it may have been at the time. It is now at neutral - sort of non-signal.
If the market bottom in mid-June holds up, then AAII Sentiment was sending appropriate signals.
But I just post the data and leave what to do to the readers.

Howard Marks - Which Way Now?
He suggests that rather than in/out or buy/sell, make portfolio adjustments according to own risk level.
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-video/market-commentary/insights-live-which-way-now

Marks suggests investors center on a neutral risk setting (think of a speedometer) suitable for their age, goals, tolerance, etc. He also recommends varying that a bit with one’s assessment of market valuation / dynamics. Therein lies the difficulty.
Since around the first of the year I’ve tried using a “sliding scale” of sorts - but only with about half the portfolio. The other 50-55% is quite static. Essentially, I try to raise or lower the allocation to fixed income. Raising the fixed component reduces the equity component. Been trimming risk lately. “Neutral” for fixed income is 25%. Was down to only 17-18% a month ago. Has since risen to 21% - less aggressive than earlier, but still substantially overweighted towards risk. Keep in mind that there is also a 50+% (moderate) allocation which remains static other than minor rebalancing.
There are many ways to skin a cat. If others have some sort of “speedometer” (Marks’ term) I’d enjoy hearing how they implement it. From some of the posts a month or two back some here were ramping up their cash and conservative investments based on “Fed-Speak” and their own macro assessment. In hindsight, that might have had them leaning the wrong way. Points to the difficulty of putting Marks into practice, Lately, mining and some natural resources (not oil) have recovered from earlier year losses. (And the dollar has begun to weaken). Yesterday I trimmed a bit off real assets and bumped up cash.
Amazingly - PRSIX, a 40/60 fund I watch closely, remains deep underwater at near a double-digit loss YTD despite the market rebound. Individual investors have a nimbleness and ability to react to changing conditions that a large fund does not possess. Than again, TRP never ceases to amaze.

For the week ending on 8/10/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (36.7%; above average) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (31.2%; average); bullish became the middle sentiment (32.2%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -4.5% (low). With all Sentiments still in 30s, future flip-flops in ordering are expected. The strong rally from mid-June lows is at an important juncture. Investor concerns included recession/slowdown; inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed/FOMC; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (24+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds down/flat, oil up, gold up, dollar down. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=7&scrollTo=740

+1. :)

Just to update my earlier numbers. TROW fell back a bit from earlier in the day before the close. Closed at $129.87, a gain of 4.17% for the day.
When I initially posted this thread 7/10 it was $113.68. Buying at that price would have resulted in a total gain thru today of 14.24%.
The following day, 7/11, I noted it had fallen to $113.10. Buying than would have produced a total gain of 14.83% thru today.
On 7/13 I noted it had fallen to $110.77 / Buying at that price would have resulted in a 17.24%. gain thru today.
Of course I did not recommend buying back than. Nor did I buy. There wasn’t really room in my allocation model to hold it in any significant quantity without dumping another holding. (And I like what I already own.)

With respect to sweet corn, the prices are indeed much higher than in previous years. The market we use for meat and a few other products is noted for good quality but very high prices: sweet corn the other day was $1.29 PER EAR!!!
For contrast, the sweet corn from the Safeway chain is locally grown, consistently excellent quality, and typically 50¢ per ear, with frequent sales of 3/$1.00. Over the July 4th weekend they really had a special: 10¢ per ear- limit of 6 ears.
It pays to shop around, which is very easy using InstaCart. Yes, InstaCart's prices are a little high, but since we're both over 80, avoiding Covid and not carrying heavy grocery bags it's worth it. We typically source groceries from 3 or 4 different stores, including Costco.

+1 crash and hank Marketbeat reported that Director Patrick Donahoe bought 3055 shares recently so maybe he knows something?! Once I found out TROW had a 4% dividend, I couldn't resist it, so thanks for the info hank !

@Hank
Good call sir
Hood plummet from 60s to 5 then rebound little to 10.5 today
I DID similar things and always kicked myself before or after since did not buy or sell too early
Many small caps stocks -70% (even 80s 90s% like IONQ) since the carnage started after new-year/Ukraine invasion
Add lots small caps past few wks
TNA
NVTA
VRM
Balu
Qubt
Bbby
Also small dca into cryptos recently
BTC
ETH
Xlmusd
Sold out NVTA after closures massive gained today but very small portions 300 shares...bought at 2.5 bucks
Pump dumped AMTD HKD last few wk 7% 10% gained here there but very little bought

Today was a 92% up-volume day.
Others:
90% up-volume days: May 13, Jul 19, Aug 10
90% down-volume days: May 5, May 9, Jun 9, Jun 13, Jun 16
These so-called A/D thrust days have significance.
https://twitter.com/WalterDeemer/status/1557462958745190401

I much prefer Marty Zweig’s double 9 to 1 up volume indicator within three months albeit a bit similar to Deemer’s and Lowry Research. Zweig divides up volume by down volume. Today was an impressive and rare 12 to 1. But his indicator already went on a buy on July 19 signaling the end of the bear. His indicator has kicked in at every bear market bottom with the only failure I believe in 2008. I have talked about this ad nauseam but no one ever listens. At bear market bottoms there are always 1001 reasons not to be bullish. Usually his indicator kicks in much closer to the actual bottom than this time around.
Of course Zweig was also known as much as anyone about how not to fight the Fed as well as follow the trend, This is one of the rare times I can recall his two mantras are in direct conflict with his double 9 to 1 indicator kicking in amid an ever tightening Fed. Then again, it kicked in late 2018/early2019 amid a Fed that had been tightening and that signal was spot on.
Edit: We had an 8.5 to one up day on July 1 and that was close enough to a 9 to 1 to convince many of those who religiously follow Zweig’s indicator,

Your summarization and conclusions are encouraging. Those technical signals are, frankly, beyond me..... Even so, I certainly do pay attention to Zweig! And what YOU have shared is not just chopped liver, either. Thank you!

Today was a 92% up-volume day.
Others:
90% up-volume days: May 13, Jul 19, Aug 10
90% down-volume days: May 5, May 9, Jun 9, Jun 13, Jun 16
These so-called A/D thrust days have significance.
https://twitter.com/WalterDeemer/status/1557462958745190401

I much prefer Marty Zweig’s double 9 to 1 up volume indicator within three months albeit a bit similar to Deemer’s and Lowry Research. Zweig divides up volume by down volume. Today was an impressive and rare 12 to 1. But his indicator already went on a buy on July 19 signaling the end of the bear. His indicator has kicked in at every bear market bottom with the only failure I believe in 2008. I have talked about this ad nauseam but no one ever listens. At bear market bottoms there are always 1001 reasons not to be bullish. Usually his indicator kicks in much closer to the actual bottom than this time around.
Of course Zweig was also known as much as anyone about how not to fight the Fed as well as follow the trend, This is one of the rare times I can recall his two mantras are in direct conflict with his double 9 to 1 indicator kicking in amid an ever tightening Fed. Then again, it kicked in late 2018/early2019 amid a Fed that had been tightening and that signal was spot on.
Edit: We had an 8.5 to one up day on July 1 and that was close enough to a 9 to 1 to convince many of those who religiously follow Zweig’s indicator,

Yes, from a low point at -18%. our stuff is now down by -10%. That's -10% down from an ALL-TIME HIGH at the start of the year. And there have been changes in the portfolio. In one case, I dumped what had become a very big pile of smelly doggy poopies: ENIC. It was difficult to swallow THAT loss. But I learned a lesson, and so I did not wait so long to dump RGR after the Earnings miss just recently reported. After the numbers were published, the stock has been taking a beating. And the political climate makes RGR a member of the un-loved.
PSTL is my new holding, bought with proceeds from the RGR sale. It was down today, but finished up from the price where I bought it. Nice. I plan on holding it for the dividends. The Post Office pays its bills.
WHERE TO, FROM HERE? Maybe Tech will shine again, after the new legislation? With Fall and Winter coming, I do hope my midstream stock, ET, will do well. (Remember the war?) The economy is based upon Consumerism. That's not a good thing, ethically and morally. But the economy has no conscience, nor do the markets. I believe the Consumer will continue to over-spend and live day by day with credit card debt, just getting by. Wages are higher = more money will get spent. That's 66-70% of the Economy, right there.

Today was a 92% up-volume day.
Others:
90% up-volume days: May 13, Jul 19, Aug 10
90% down-volume days: May 5, May 9, Jun 9, Jun 13, Jun 16
These so-called A/D thrust days have significance.
https://twitter.com/WalterDeemer/status/1557462958745190401

@Derf

I heard via TV that Ford raised the price of their EV truck up over $8K !
Not enjoying that ride, Derf
Added: If you like green,
take a look at Mr. Market

This is why people need to look at which sectors the "green" etf is sampling.
Ford may be charging more for a consumer durable. OTOH, they just signed a big deal with DTE Energy that will result in 650 MW of new solar energy generation in Michigan by 2025.
https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2022/08/10/ford-dtes-solar-deal-help-automaker-go-carbon-free-michigan/10282086002/

Every fund/ETF company is jumping on the "Climate Change " bandwagon, but I think there is a good case to make for active management here, as the technology is rapidly changing and sophisticated engineers and mangers can add a lot of value by knowing what may work and may not. Most ETFs are based on "indexes" that in some cases, the companies create themselves, hardly active management. GM and Ford may well be the ultimate winners of the electric vehicle race, but neither are in most "Green" ETFs based on these indices, only TSLA.
I ( or my kids IRAs) have had positions in TAN LIT PBD PHO ( water) and FCX ( Copper) for years. My son wanted only clean energy and "green" investments so even with the recent "swoon" some of his ETFs are up 250% in the last eight years since we started his accounts.
I recently spent a fair amount of time looking for actively managed funds in "climate change" and found several interesting ideas. It is hard to search for "climate Change" as it is not a fund category that I am aware of, but M* classifies most funds as " natural resources" and you can skim their names pretty quickly. Another way is to look for concentrated positions in some of the usual companies, or other funds that hold significant positions in common with some of the bigger inaccessible funds like GCCHX.
Most funds are only recently organized, but NALFX has a long track record. GMOs Climate Change Fund GCCHX has been in business since 2017 and provides a good comparison, although it has a $5,000,000 minimum. ( Interestingly NALFX beats it with a bit more volatility).
Most are less than a year old.
I nibbled also at RKCIX ( Rockefeller management trying to make up for JD's sins), and GCEBX ( has a bit of an income focus so is less volatile) and NETZ (an ETF run by "Engine no 1, the group that forced XOM to the climate change table).
Other things to think about are materials that will go up in price as demand increases like rare earths (REMX) and "Green minerals" ( GMET). Huge quantities of Cobalt, etc will be needed to transition to carbon neutral. Carbon credits are another idea (KRBN), as is timberland ( hard to find for individuals)
I was thinking of putting this together in a Commentary piece, but my skills are limited to typing so I dumped a lot of these ideas into just a word document.

I eat A LOT of chicken, and have noticed a rise in price. I buy mine at the West Side Market in Cleveland, which tend to be from more local suppliers. Last time I bought a roaster it was about $15...2 or 3 dollars more than a year ago. If I'm buying thighs for the grill, they're really about the same, even at the local market.
Sweet corn prices?!? Oh my...

Right or wrong I bail on new positions if they hit an 7-8% loss. It's benefitted my bottom line a bunch. It tells me that I took those positions too early, that I need to have more patience and/or that I don't have a full understanding of the equity of interest …

@Mark. I’ll withdraw / modify my prior advice. Glad selling for a loss works for you. Realize some sophisticated investors use “stop loss orders” in buying / trading. Beyond my experience level or inclination. But certainly a respected approach.
Yes, I have sold speculative holdings that gained briefly and than reversed direction. Maybe for a percent or two loss. But if you’re gonna jump ship at 15% down … you’re going to have to gain back 16 or 17% elsewhere just to recoup that kind of loss. I’d say take the loss if you seriously misjudged the security. But if confident in your original analysis, stick with it. I’ll confess to buying a few shares of KKR last spring. But bailed in a day or two for a small loss when I realized it was way too aggressive / volatile an investment for me. Had clearly made some major mistakes in my initial analysis and assumptions. Stuff happens.

@hank - who said "Some would bail after a quick 15% loss - a sure way to the poor house." Right or wrong I bail on new positions if they hit an 7-8% loss. It's benefitted my bottom line a bunch. It tells me that I took those positions too early, that I need to have more patience and/or that I don't have a full understanding of the equity of interest, Ergo back to the drawing board and the research data. MDT was my most recent blunder.

No question in my mind that lithium (LAC, in my case) may be supplanted by a more environmentally friendly product.

Here's one, for utility-scale storage, based on iron-flow technology, that will also be much cheaper than lithium.

A good rally from mid-June lows, whatever it is called - Bear-rally or new up-move. It has now reached the target area that many had for this bounce. Very strong day today. Strange that people are cheering CPI of +8.5% (President erroneously said no inflation when he meant no change in inflation). Where to now?
Major Indexes since 1/3/22 https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p07001467085
SPX/SP500 TA https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p54837283928

What a move!

Umm … I track lots of things just for fun. +15% over a short period is a nice gain. Not uncommon in today’s volatile markets. Capture an quick gain like that and reinvest it back into your (more conservative) overall portfolio. Helps the bottom line over time. But it can move either way on you. Some would bail after a quick 15% loss - a sure way to the poor house.
Nice going @carew388.
With TRP, all the brokerages / asset managers had become dirt cheap earlier in the year. Investors in TROW and the others must now believe folks will start moving back into the markets now that they’ve risen significantly. Ironic in a sense.