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The Last Ten Days Have Been the Hottest in a While (2023 Market Observations)

edited January 12 in Other Investing
Looks like everything except the kitchen sink is scortching hot to start the new year. Feel free to add any charts, etc. … Industrial metals / mining have been hot most of 2022 … Rio Tinto (RIO) shows a 6 month gain of 33% on the Google chart today. Looks like gold will soon break above $900 if it hasn’t already, Miners are up 1-2% today. As @MikeM noted in another thread recently, PRPFX … is a tamer way to play the metals - and held up relatively well last year. And some REIT funds bounced around 4% yesterday.

Lagging are some of the consumer staples stocks viewed as more of a defensive play - but still enjoying the ride. One defensive fund some here own, CCOR, has been struggling a bit lately. Off about 0.50% at the moment - but tends to be highly volatile on an hour-by-hour and day-to-day basis … If you own anything denominated in non-dollar currencies you’ll likely have a good day. In particular the Japanese yen is doing very well today …

(Paragraph deleted)

… GNMA funds have been hot this year … Daily gains around a half-percent common. Some up 0.75% today alone. Have to believe many other investment grade bond funds are enjoying the ride. The first 10 trading days of 2023 seem a mirror image of 2022 when both stocks and bonds tumbled together.

Other market observations?
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Comments

  • Popularized by Marty Zweig the last ten trading days dating back to 12/29 will generate ( unless there is some massive decline into the close) one of the rarest and most powerful bullish momentum indicators. That is the total 10 day NYSE advances over declines ratio greater than 2. Has only occurred 20 times since 1945. The last two were January 9, 2019 and June 3, 2020. There were multiple signals in 2009. Walter Deemer has a similar breakaway momentum indicator but for some reason uses 1.97.

    Numerous hallowed momentum indicators kicked in but failed last year so will shall see if this rarer and more powerful indicator is officially it for the bears. Most of the traders out there have already been long YTD so this should give them more confidence this is not another fake out rally.

    Hopefully can spend most of my time hiking and away from the investing and trading forums, Too many George Santos impersonators have infiltrated some of these forums.
  • edited January 12
    Jeffrey Hirsch (son of late Yale Hirsch; founder of Stock Trader's Almanac) posted a table at Twitter LINK with data from 1950 on:
    SC Rally (late-Dec Santa Claus rally)
    FFD (first 5 days of the year)
    JB (Jan barometer)

    Subsequent
    Feb
    Last 11 Mo (Feb-Dec)
    Full Year (Jan-Dec)

    Instead of a single pointer, when all 3 are positive (SC Rally, FFD, JB), the year is good.

    image
  • edited January 12

    Jeffrey Hirsch (son of late Yale Hirsch; founder of Stock Trader's Almanac) posted a table at Twitter LINK with data from 1950 on:
    SC Rally (late-Dec Santa Claus rally)
    FFD (first 5 days of the year)
    JB (Jan barometer)

    Subsequent
    Feb
    Last 11 Mo (Feb-Dec)
    Full Year (Jan-Dec)

    Instead of a single pointer, when all 3 are positive (SC Rally, FFD, JB), the year is good.

    image

    And from Carson Research if you add if the previous year was down - as was 2022 - to the above equation ( nine occurrences) you have an average 27.1% annual return the following year
  • Are the data for year 2020-2022 available? After 2022, it would be nice to have a decent year.
  • Sven said:

    Are the data for year 2020-2022 available? After 2022, it would be nice to have a decent year.

    Nothing to update as 2020-2022 were not trifecta years. We won’t know if 2023 is such till the end of January.







  • edited January 12
    Junkster said:

    ”Too many George Santos impersonators have infiltrated some of these forums.”

    Hi Gary. I don’t know whether your reference was to me or not. But inasmuch as I’d earlier alluded to some profitable personal investments and inasmuch as others might construe your remark in that way I’ve edited my original post, deleting all references to my own investments or personally favored assets / asset classes. I also deleted references to investment newsletters I may subscribe to.

    The question of poster integrity is a critical one that surely affects mfo and similar forums. You are right to raise the issue. Short of submitting to board sponsors authentic documentation to substantiate investor claims (which I know you to have done on at least one occasion) there is no way for readers to know for certain whether poster claims of success are truthful - or even if they’ve owned the funds / assets they claim to. I should add here that I have been most impressed with the caliber of the posters on this forum and do not get the sense, as you appear to, that there are a significant number of “George Santos” posts occurring - at least on regular basis. But I could be wrong.

    One here whom I greatly respect, Mark Freeland (@msf), has always astutely avoided identifying or acknowledging any stocks or funds he may own. I can’t speak for Mark, but the reasons he has stated in the past made good sense to me. I will follow in his footsteps and refrain in the future from identifying any funds, stocks or other assets I may own or may have owned in the past. I will also avoid mention of asset classes I may favor or invest in. At first blush I considered going back and similarity editing all such past references made in other threads. But doing so would be grossly unfair to those who responded / participated in the threads with their own thoughtful or helpful remarks.

    Thanks for responding to my post. Enjoy the long hike.
  • Any of you poster backing up the truck ? I've been buying a little here & there, but more like a wheelbarrow at a time.
    Good evening, Derf
  • edited January 12
    hank said:

    Junkster said:

    ”Too many George Santos impersonators have infiltrated some of these forums.”

    Hi Gary. I don’t know whether your reference was to me or not. But inasmuch as I’d earlier alluded to some profitable personal investments and inasmuch as others might construe your remark in that way I’ve edited my original post, deleting all references to my own investments or personally favored assets / asset classes. I also deleted references to investment newsletters I may subscribe to.

    The question of poster integrity is a critical one that surely affects mfo and similar forums. You are right to raise the issue. Short of submitting to board sponsors authentic documentation to substantiate investor claims (which I know you to have done on at least one occasion) there is no way for readers to know for certain whether poster claims of success are truthful - or even if they’ve owned the funds / assets they claim to. I should add here that I have been most impressed with the caliber of the posters on this forum and do not get the sense, as you appear to, that there are a significant number of “George Soros” posts occurring - at least on regular basis. But I could be wrong.

    One here whom I greatly respect, Mark Freeland (@msf), has always astutely avoided identifying or acknowledging any stocks or funds he may own. I can’t speak for Mark, but the reasons he has stated in the past made good sense to me. I will follow in his footsteps and refrain in the future from identifying any funds, stocks or other assets I may own or may have owned in the past. I will also avoid mention of asset classes I may favor or invest in. At first blush I considered going back and similarity editing all such past references made in other threads. But doing so would be grossly unfair to those who responded / participated in the threads with their own thoughtful or helpful remarks.

    Thanks for responding to my post. Enjoy the long hike.
    @Hank, heavens no. You are as honest as the day is long. One of the most valued members here from long ago. It’s the posters who have masterfully crafted a make believe trading/investment background/ persona with all sorts of bells and whistles to gain attention. I have pretty much gotten off Facebook too. A bit different reason but tired of seeing the irrelevant go to such lengths to become relevant. That obviously applies to only a select few as I do understand the value/appeal of FB. Let’s just say I am more than a bit old fashioned and a bit of a Luddite and not a social media fan. Please take me back to the 80s. Better yet the 50s. If it weren’t for the fact of having a long time lady friend here in Mayberry, I would be living off the grid somewhere in the mountains.

    I do believe though there are lots of George Santos in all walks of life. How he pulled off that scam is beyond me. Did his opponent never think about checking out his claimed credentials? Lots of blame all around on that one.

  • edited January 12
    "Did his opponent never think about checking out his claimed credentials? Lots of blame all around on that one."

    @Junkster- Man, are you ever right. Next we'll find out that he isn't even a US citizen, and is a jail escapee from Bangladesh.
  • @Hank- maybe Junkster is thinking of ol' FD.
  • Old_Joe said:

    @Hank- maybe Junkster is thinking of ol' FD.

    Actually no one person in particular, just a slew of them spread over numerous forums over many years.

  • edited January 12
    @Derf, what is the hurry? Bought some BND and will increase its allocation as T bills and CDs mature in coming months. If and when the Fed starts to cut rates, I will go for long duration bonds. Stocks are still expensive in my opinion. So I will see how their earnings look like in the coming weeks.
  • edited January 12
    hank said:

    Junkster said:

    ”Too many George Santos impersonators have infiltrated some of these forums.”

    [snip]
    One here whom I greatly respect, Mark Freeland (@msf), has always astutely avoided identifying or acknowledging any stocks or funds he may own. I can’t speak for Mark, but the reasons he has stated in the past made good sense to me. I will follow in his footsteps and refrain in the future from identifying any funds, stocks or other assets I may own or may have owned in the past. I will also avoid mention of asset classes I may favor or invest in. At first blush I considered going back and similarity editing all such past references made in other threads. But doing so would be grossly unfair to those who responded / participated in the threads with their own thoughtful or helpful remarks.
    [snip]
    I don't have a problem with MFO investors mentioning funds, stocks, bonds, or asset classes they own.
    This assumes someone is not trying to run a "pump and dump" scheme (which I've never witnessed).
    Forum participants (here and elsewhere) informed me of several good investment options
    which I was not previously aware of.
    I've mentioned my funds/investments and buys/sells in some posts not to brag
    but to share information and potentially initiate further discussion.
    After all, aren't we here to learn more about funds specifically and investing in general?
  • edited January 13
    @Observant1 - I’m glad you and others continue to share your holdings. No intent here to impugn or discourage that practice. I too have acquired some great funds after others wrote about them here. So my decision to no longer share is strictly personal.

    I quit identifying individual stocks I own 6 months or so ago. The thinking at the time was: (1) I’m unqualified to evaluate individual securities and could potentially lead someone into an inappropriate investment (2) More selfishly, I didn’t want to be “hyping” stocks I owned on a public forum and possibly contribute to whatever herd mentality might exist (across the internet) - thinking that in the longer run it might work against me.

    Thanks for your comments.
  • edited January 13
    From Walter Deemer this evening, a true icon since the 1960s among technical analysts. “ The stock market generated breakaway momentum today for the 25th time since 1945. This is a genuine breadth thrust. It means (IMHO) we’re in a bull market. How long it lasts, and how far it carries is something we will know only in the fullness of time.”

    Twitter is all lathered up about Mr. Deemer’s breakaway momentum thrust, Zweig’s breadth thrust, a Whaley breadth thrust and more, I am in a small group of retired bond traders from insurance companies and banks and that is all they are talking about too. Even more so since the junk bond indicator has worked so well YTD. I just hope since these breadth thrusts are now so well embraced/discussed/known that doesn’t blunt their effectiveness,

    Would be nice if this lock out move up continues not allowing those waiting for a pull back to jump on board. But who knows, The [email protected] is the most overbought now since last May where it then proceeded to lose several hundred points so say the bears. This current market though in no way resembles the May market other than being overbought. Just look at the daily new highs/lows.

  • @hank,

    I can appreciate your personal position.
    In the past, I've strongly endorsed certain mutual funds which I thought were excellent.
    The problem is we all have different goals, risk capacities, risk tolerance, etc.
    Now when someone asks for fund recommendations,
    I might mention a fund and then suggest further investigation.
    Thanks for your reply.
  • Old_Joe said:

    "Did his opponent never think about checking out his claimed credentials? Lots of blame all around on that one."

    @Junkster- Man, are you ever right. Next we'll find out that he isn't even a US citizen, and is a jail escapee from Bangladesh.

    I read in NYT or WaPo that the opponent in the general knew about it and did raise the issue, but that it never got traction. Probably the constituency thought he was ideal and wouldn't hear anything to the contrary, especially from his opponent.
  • More inflation data posted today.
    https://vox.com/policy-and-politics/2023/1/12/23551782/inflation-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve

    Couple that with last week’s slowing wage growth is encouraging; the rate hike may become smaller. After a bruising year of 2022, these are quite encouraging data.
  • edited January 13
    A local Long Island newspaper (The North Shore Leader) reported about George Santos before the election.
    Since this paper reaches about 20,000 people, few outside of Long Island may have been aware of his antics.
    Link
  • edited January 13
    I've done some rearranging in the IRA. In taxable, I continue to d-c-a. I will grow the bonds in days to come. Success with my current stable of single stocks has been respectable since I started that account in the Spring of 2022. Apart from the dreadful LOSS connected to 2 particular stocks I dumped when the pain got to be too much. At this moment, I've clawed my way just above even-steven. My RE investment is a thing I don't expect much from until ....... I dunno. Focus these days is on HYDB and SCHP. Letting my winners run, without adding. Deliberately spread into various market sectors.
  • @Observant1

    Several political blogs questioned why Santos's opponents campaign or the national Dems couldn't find stuff that the NYT easily uncovered. I looked into it a bit and found the research paper the Democrats wrote on Santos. ( If anyone is interested I can try to find it again)

    95% of it deals with his pro Trump/election denying statements etc, and other than mentioning his education and supposed job history they did not investigate. The one red flag is they did discover he had been evicted for non payment of rent several times, but apparently didn't follow up

    My impression was they were so focused on his being a Trumpite ( Thinking it would rile up the Dem base?) , that they failed to make a few phone calls to Citi or Goldman, thus violating what to me would be the first law of politics : Know your opponent.

    I shared this info with my uber Democratic cousins and was accused of "always complaining about the Democrats". Tehy refused to believe the campaign was responsible.

    I think it demonstrates again, how polarization has so overtaken people's previous good sense and investigative reporting. Even criticism from allies is seen as treacherous
  • edited January 13
    I haven't delved deeply into Santos's Democratic opposition.
    It does appear they were careless and missed several major red flags.
  • edited January 13
    Crash said:

    I've done some rearranging in the IRA. In taxable, I continue to d-c-a. I will grow the bonds in days to come. Success with my current stable of single stocks has been respectable since I started that account in the Spring of 2022. Apart from the dreadful LOSS connected to 2 particular stocks I dumped when the pain got to be too much. At this moment, I've clawed my way just above even-steven. My RE investment is a thing I don't expect much from until ....... I dunno. Focus these days is on HYDB and SCHP. Letting my winners run, without adding. Deliberately spread into various market sectors.

    @Crash, congrats, your TUHYX has been tearing it up YTD and over the past three months. I have never liked that fund among its peers. But never said anything because when you start telling others you think they have an inferior fund it usually blows up in your face. Sometimes best to keep one’s opinion to yourself lest you look like a fool as I would have looked had I told you to sell TUHYX and look elsewhere in junk.

    After a down year junk bonds are notorious for big snap back years. So let’s hope the junk rally has legs. January is historically the best month for junk and one of the surest seasonality trades out there,
  • @Junkster Glad to hear. And I'm always attentive to your words here.
  • Last year was tough for junk bond funds and those I followed were in double digit loss YTD. Only bank loan/floating rate funds had about 0.4% loss. The expectation of junk bonds to do well in rising rates simply failed. This year could be better as the rate hikes may be peaking with a few smaller hikes. If that is the case, buying in now with several increments may be ok.
  • edited January 16
    .
  • Sven said:

    Last year was tough for junk bond funds and those I followed were in double digit loss YTD. Only bank loan/floating rate funds had about 0.4% loss. The expectation of junk bonds to do well in rising rates simply failed. This year could be better as the rate hikes may be peaking with a few smaller hikes. If that is the case, buying in now with several increments may be ok.

    +1.
  • Investors Are Walking a Tightrope
    "Even though the Fed is saying they will not cut interest rates, the market is saying that in three to six months we will have recession, we will have moderating inflation and you will be singing a different tune,” said Andrzej Skiba, head of U.S. fixed income at BlueBay Asset Management. “There is a massive difference between what we are hearing from the Fed, and what the market is thinking will occur.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/13/business/stock-market-gains.html
  • msf
    edited January 17
    Getting a bit OT here; I hope people will indulge me as I'm a bit sensitive on this, having grown up in a home in what is now NY's 3rd Congressional district.

    In election campaigns, there are two principal, not mutually exclusive, approaches. Persuasion (moving people on the fence into your camp) and getting out the vote GOTV (driving more of "your side" to the polls).

    Persuasion in a country hewing to tribal allegiances has lessened in importance. As related by Smircornish, Grant Lally (publisher of the North Shore Leader) said that "Santos benefited from generic voting, people supporting their own label regardless of a candidate's individual merit" (quoting Smircornish).

    Voters are so wired to their 'R's and 'D's that papers are ending their practice en masse of making endorsements.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/06/business/media/alden-newspaper-candidate-endorsements.html

    Much more important these days is GOTV. Certainly the Democrats could have done more. Still, how much more motivated would Democratic voters have been to vote against a pathological liar than against one who enthusiastically supported a pathological liar?

    Santos was a supposedly known quantity, having run for the same position in 2020. People seem to have forgotten that he put out some of the same lies then.
    https://ballotpedia.org/George_Devolder-Santos#Campaign_themes

    Here's an opinion piece with which I agree. In essence, where was the fourth estate, notably Newsday but also the NY Times during the election cycle? To which I add, or during the last cycle?
    https://dankennedy.net/2022/12/23/a-long-island-weekly-had-the-goods-on-santos-several-weeks-before-election-day/
  • @msf, that one might be better in a New thread, no? And even further off topic - I don't miss living on Long Island (down on the South shore) at all. Glad I left there decades ago.
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