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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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Sentiment & market Indicators

yogibearbullyogibearbull
in Other Investing
SENTIMENT & MARKET INDICATORS, 11/19/25
AAII Bull-Bear Spread -11.0% (below average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 11 (extreme fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 34.41% (negative)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 36.40% (negative)
These are contrarian indicators.

INVESTOR CONCERNS: Budget, debt, tariffs, inflation, jobs, Fed, dollar, recession, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (194+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+27 weeks; fragile peace).
For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar up.

It will take time to fully restart US Government. Losses for hourly federal workers are permanent. Late gov reports: jobs, Nov 20 (today); PPI, Nov 25. There are more exceptions to tariffs on food items & more trade deals are coming.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2308/thread

Comments

  • DrVenture
    @yogibearbull

    Always appreciate the contribution. Particularly so concise.
  • stayCalm
    VIX has crept up to 25!
  • hank
    stayCalm said:

    VIX has crept up to 25!

    Nice. I have a bit in TAIL. Up 1% at the moment. Wow. Did the markets turn on a dime today. We’ll see if it lasts.
  • DrVenture
    edited November 20
    My assumption is that a whole lot of folks saw the opportunity to exit positions. I was considering lightning up on equities.
  • peak2climb
    @hank: Wow. Did the markets turn on a dime today. We’ll see if it lasts.

    Um....the markets are in a bipolar state, tending toward nonsense. Stunning shift in attitude today.
  • hank
    edited November 20
    peak2climb said:

    @hank: Wow. Did the markets turn on a dime today. We’ll see if it lasts.

    Um....the markets are in a bipolar state, tending toward nonsense. Stunning shift in attitude today.

    Agree. And I think it’s overly-simplistic and non-productive as an investor to attribute market behavior to any single individual whether you love or loath him. Honestly, is this how people invest today? Based on their view of the political leadership?

    My sense is many markets have been expensive (the nice term for overvalued) for many years (and still are). Depending on one’s time horizon it may or may not be appropriate to own various assets. But to attribute everything to a single individual or party? No. Neither Democrats nor Republicans have control of the economy. Why pretend one party does? Herbert Hoover did not cause the Great Depression and Franklin Roosevelt did not end it (but ramping up for war in Europe had a lot to do with ending it.) Economies have a mind of their own.

    End of rant.
  • JunksterJunkster
    hank said:

    peak2climb said:

    @hank: Wow. Did the markets turn on a dime today. We’ll see if it lasts.

    Um....the markets are in a bipolar state, tending toward nonsense. Stunning shift in attitude today.

    Agree. And I think it’s overly-simplistic and non-productive as an investor to attribute market behavior to any single individual whether you love or loath him. Honestly, is this how people invest today? Based on their view of the political leadership?

    My sense is many markets have been expensive (the nice term for overvalued) for many years (and still are). Depending on one’s time horizon it may or may not be appropriate to own various assets. But to attribute everything to a single individual or party? No. Neither Democrats nor Republicans have control of the economy. Why pretend one party does? Herbert Hoover did not cause the Great Depression and Franklin Roosevelt did not end it (but ramping up for war in Europe had a lot to do with ending it.) Economies have a mind of their own.

    End of rant.
    Post of the year @Hank. Thanks for your cogent comments.
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    I Second that motion!
  • stayCalm
    edited November 20
    One individual or party does not control the long arc but most certainly can influence the short arc. For example Democrat policies on solar, renewables, EV credits does influence consumer and market behavior.

    Republican policies around ACA, EPA, TCJA, tariffs, control of Federal Reserve do affect consumer and market behavior.

    Elections have consequences that last a lot longer than a 4 year Presidential term -- life appointments of judges, long tenured Fed Governors, etc..
  • JD_co
    stayCalm said:



    Elections have consequences that last a lot longer than a 4 year Presidential term -- life appointments of judges, long tenured Fed Governors, etc..

    Let's add to that the isolationist policy that is straining the United States' international trade partnerships. It will take time to rebuild these. I don't see how this can be ignored.

    The resilient US consumer has been willing to spend for so long. But now the job market has seized up and policies (i.e. tariffs) may be hurting the economy instead of helping. Bringing back manufacturing jobs was never going to be a difference maker. Add furloughed and terminated govt workers to the mix and continued inflation.

    Agreed, there are consequences to these actions. Average people are feeling some economic pain. Perception is everything - do the majority of Americans believe in the current administration's ability to navigate these waters?
  • peak2climb
    @hank: ...Economies have a mind of their own...End of rant.

    A very pragmatic rant, if indeed it was a rant.

    Even though I detest the orange buffoon and his unqualified knee-scraping appointees, I agree there is no obvious connection between his corrupt/inane actions and the current market (just like Biden's senility had nothing to do with the market's exuberance during 2023/2024), but I don't agree that his administration hasn't affected the economy. DOGE? Tariffs? The Big Stupid Bill (otherwise known as Project 2025)? ACA dismissal?

    We are due for a significant correction regarding this "expensive" market, but there is too much extraneous bullshit and insider shenanigans within this unchecked executive branch to ignore how it may affect future market/economy confidence. I'm sure to get some grumbles for this, but egotistical billionaires shouldn't be involved in any government oversight, imho. Thanks for the nonsense, voters!

    (I must admit that last weekend's 60 Minutes episode on obvious gov corruption within this admin really pissed me off. There's a new impeachable offense every damn week)
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