Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
@Puddnhead You noted: "think Germany in the 80s. What it cost them to bring the East up to their level. It took years. It was a money pit. Could this happen in Korea? Just thinking......" I don't follow the bold portion in your statement. Do you mean if N. and S. Korea were to become one country? OR ? Help me, please. Thank you Catch
Hi Catch, Yeah, just a thought.....if the North is poor, who's going to step in to help them? I'm sure we and China will some. But for South Korea (I think how this will be done) .... is with factories and jobs. Many companies will step in because of green and many will lose money. Not everybody wins at this game. It's costly to do this, plus, you need good management to lead. So it will impact profits of these companies. As for the little fat man.....he may lose his grip sooner rather than later. A dictator tends to fall fast as things change. Think Gorbachev and Tianenman Square, the Arab spring, the "Me, too! revolution. When a door opens, it tends to be very hard to close again. Does that mean one country? I think yes, over time. I mean, who (a year ago with missiles flying) thought we'd be here. God bless the Pudd
@Puddnhead et al No formal peace treaty and 65 years later one would expect a population of normal human beings for all other reasons, but being in total isolation; will require many years of glide time to melt into any version of semi-modern. These folks would be like time travelers from our modern society having been transported to a much advanced society that we in the U.S. can not imagine. Pick you favorite "into the future" movie and attempt to grasp a world that we can not really imagine today. The two Germany's had similar cultural and society backgrounds and exposures; but one was a "free state" and the other a "police state". The integration was smooth in comparison to the current state of affairs for the Korea's. Korea is 3rd globally in robotics use, has a highly educated society, is fiddling with things that are A.I. and not yet arrived and given the global marketplace a most sophisticated smart phone, eh?
As to a N. Korea fix; reminds me of an article from one of the 1970 Playboy magazines that I still recall. The writer (well known from my recall, but I can't remember his name now), anyway; he detailed a plan where instead of the B-52's dropping bombs on N. Vietnam, the drops would be converted into dropping various appliances, power sources, repair parts and tools. Knowing some of the items would be damaged upon landing, the spare parts and tools would be needed. Eventually with this process spread into many other consumer areas, the end result being a new type of economy being created !!! Well, that is the drift, but not the full plan. Note: Hugh Hefner was very anti-Vietnam war. Playboy magazine found many writers and interviews in this direction with some various serious discussions/writes.
One would hope that there are enough smart folks with the experience of time on their side to help with a possible plan for N. Korea; but I suspect such folks won't be called forth for advisement; as the "all knowing group is already in place". Not unlike Vietnam, there are many factors. Sadly, normally smart folks who are in charge of much; for reasons of personality/ego won't seek advice, and likely today, as with Vietnam; too many with knowledge had been dismissed/retired from the state and defense dept's. and no one wanted/wants to give them a 5 minute phone call of their thoughts. All this takes to go badly wrong is 1 or 2 folks who make the rules. If you're not familiar with the "Pentagon Papers", do a search for an overview of how easily things get out of control for the worse. Nuff of my blabber and I've traveled a path I shouldn't and that I don't like others to travel, in perverting a decent and relevant thread topic. My only saving grace is that whatever actions come forth in the next month and forward may indeed cause a "buy-sell-ponder".
Tom Lehrer, or perhaps it was Kissinger in his later years, once quipped during the Vietnam war that that country should study the export economies of Germany and Japan to see what happens when you lost a war w/ the US. And lo and behold, 4y ago I bought a beautiful diningroom table and chairs at a low price from Costco that were expertly and solidly made in you-know-where.
Playboy magazine found many writers and interviews in this direction with some various serious discussions/writes.
Right on, Catch. I’d occasionally buy a copy just to read the Rukeyser interviews.
From March 1982: Louis Rukeyser by Warren Kalbacker with photography by Larry Williams - The irreverent host of tv's "wall street week" shares his views on hot tips, reaganomics and the erotic appeal of money (Contents omitted) http://www.vintageplayboymags.co.uk/80s/Mar/02.htm
I like the way how she evaluates a small cap company. I believe she is a shrewd, but also bold, that makes money. She is a Shanghai woman. Does it ring a bell to you ?
Hi guys, Sold FLPSX this week. Taking some profits and raising cash. Hoping for some weakness later in the year to buy. I have been checking what Japan means to China and China to Japan since I have a large amount of $$ there. I thought that the dollar or U.S. interest rates would drive their market.....but now I think it's what China does moreso with trade. There so intertwined, it seems....so if China starts to slow, it could be time to sell Japan. Also, something else I've seen.....almost all my funds own something in the United Kingdom. It's everywhere. While I'm seeing this also GLFOX ..... what the heck? 56% utilities, 27% in Italy with rates rising and QE coming to an end soon. It's like WTF? Who drew up that plan? God bless the Pudd
For the week ending of May 18th Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 154 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is now in fair value range on the barometer's scale. Seems, short interest remains at 2.5 days to cover while the 2/10 US Treasury yield spread steepened has moved from 0.43 to 0.53. I've heard some say that they look for the yield curve to continue to steepen.
During the week I added a new position to my small/mid cap sleeve (AOFAX).
In this rising interest rate environment my areas of special investment interest (in mutual funds) are money market, commodities, convertibles, regional banks & small caps. In addition, I'm still with maintaining my CD ladder and rolling CD's as they mature.
@Old_Skeet, I am wondering why you did not include energy equity into your special investment interest area. The sector is very hot lately and the best performer YTD.
I try to limit my special investment themes to the ones that are a best fit within my own portfolio. And, with this, these are the ones I write about.
According to an Instant Xray analysis of my portfolio I've got (what I feel is) already ample coverage in energy at about 9% range. Engery overweight exposure can be found in a good number of mutual funds that I currently own plus my commodity strategy fund covers some energy as well.
Currently, I am directing money into funds that I already own that are on the upward move and trimming from some that are in decline or in some cases selling out a position. Over the past couple of years I started moving from a momentum based portfolio to a well diversified portfolio centering around modern portfolio theory but I never left momentum completely. Now, I moving back toward some momentum type set ups within my portfolio but not leaving MPT either.
Again, I felt I already had enoungh energy exposure so I chose not to engage any special investments in energy as the space, for me, was already covered. Where I felt I was short of was in commodities, convertibles, and small caps. In addition, I felt it wise to build some cash in this somewhat fully valued market since interest rates are on the rise making money markets and CD's a good place to park some of it.
You asked a good question. Now you know my reasoning, thinking and special investment positioning which is subject to change without disclosure although I do like to share some of it (from time-to-time) in hopes that it might help others discover some of the faster moving market currents.
@Old_Skeet, thank you. My mutual funds usually underweight energy sector and I was OK with that till recently. Now I jumped to XOP to compensate the deficiency. Do you have any mutual fund that has a substantial percentage in energy, but does not belong to energy or natural resources sectors?
I've got a good number in the eight to ten percent range in energy. Here are a few that I own that are heavy in energy ... SVAAX 16.4% ... HWIAX 15.1% ... PGUAX 14.8% ... FKINX 13.6% ... APIUX 13.5% ... FBLAX 13.5% & ABALX 10.4%. A good number of these are hybrid type funds with good yields. And, I'm sure if I dig around some more within my portfolio I could add a few more.
In general, I have found that my hybrid funds are the more adaptive to the forever changing investing environment. Currently, hybrid funds make up more than forty percent of my portfolio.
Finally dumped my consumer staples etf, while I still had profits left. Had it for about 4 years, but outlook not good at this time. Will hold as cash for now.
For the week ending of May 25th Old_Skeet's market barometer closed the week with a reading of 153 which indicates that the S&P 500 Index is in fair value territory based upon the barometer's metrics. Interestingly, for the week the best performing sector was utilities (a defensive sector) while short interest for SPY fell form 2.5 to 2.2 days to cover. In addition, the 2/10 treasury yield curve spread flattened moving from 0.53 to 0.45 along with the interest rate for the US 10 Year falling from 3.07% to 2.93%. I'm thinking that the 500 Index is now in a consolidation phase and will be range bound until a news worthy event drives it higher (or lower). After all, a recent good earnings season failed to bring us back to January highs as we begin to close out May. Summer is coming and I'm thinking things could really get slow due to mixed signals unless something like "Good News" moves us higher or "Bad News" moves us lower. I'm also thinking the Fed will raise interest rates at its June meeting.
During the week I rolled an 18 month maturing CD that had been paying 1.25% to one that is now paying 2.55%. In six months I'll have another one maturing. The 7 day yield on my two money market mutual funds GBAXX and AMAXX are 1.69% and 1.46% respectively. A third money market mutual fund that I have under review PINXX currently has a 7 day yield of 1.49%. I plan to fund PINXX with equity sale proceeds when taken. My money market mutual funds are where I am currently parking cash that I plan to latter use for investment purposes; and, I have a desire to keep these funds liquid while earning some interest income along the way.
Currently, my portfolio's asset allocation according to a recent Xray analysis bubbles at Cash 15%, Bonds 26%, US stocks 33%, Foreign stocks 20% and Other assets 6%. My three investment sectors of heaviest weightings and focus are financials, technology and consumer discretionary. From a style orientation I am about 70% large caps and 30% small/mid caps. Year-to-date I'm at pace with the Lipper Balance Index @ 0.4%. Interestingly, the estimated expense ratio of my portfolio as reported by Morningstar is 0.76% plus I have no wrap fees whatsoever on my accounts. Since, my portfolio has about a 3% yield which is more than ample to meet my cash flow needs I plan to just rock-a-long as we move into and through summer, closing shop until late summer or perhaps early fall.
During the past week I've noticed the risk off type assets within my portfolio are starting to mount an upward movement and finding good traction while the risk on type assets are starting to falter. I'm thinking we are going to see a leadership change as we move into and through summer with another leadership change taking place as we move into fall. Seems a seasonal tide is arriving with the old saw "Sell in May Come Back After St. Leger's Day" starting to take hold.
Remember, better than 40% of my portfolio is invested in hybrid funds (that are pretty active in the markets) so I now leave it to them to do the majority of the portfolio's positioning and asset allocation tweaking. For the most part, I now invest around the edges. Currently, my activity of late has been to add to my convertible securities fund, my commodity strategy fund along with my small/mid caps plus maintaining my CD ladder. Excess cash generation has been going into my money market mutual funds.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Wishing all a good holiday weekend ... but, most of all "Good Investing."
@Old_Skeet Thanks so much for sharing your market barometer and what your current strategy is. I always come to this site on a weekly basis to read your updates and find I learn something.
@MikeW Thank you for your comment. I am happy to learn that you found interest in Old_Skeet's market barometer. It has been helpful to me also over the years so I started posting it a few years ago on the board in hopes others would find benefit. Should I feel market conditions warrant a special post I'll do so along with a monthly recap through the summer months. Come late summer or early fall I'll return to posting weekly. Enjoy your summer.
Yep, generally the prime money market funds (that you referenced) have a higher yield while the government money market funds (that I referenced) have greater liquidity and lower yield.
Below is a link that list the highest paying money market funds by classification including tax free.
I'm currently have positioned better than half of my cash allocation in money market mutual funds and a CD ladder because this is part of my rising interest rate investment strategy. Much like you I'm seeing monthly increases in dividend and interest payments. In addition, I'm also looking for my convertible securities fund and commodity strategy fund to pay out some good distributions this year.
Comments
You noted: "think Germany in the 80s. What it cost them to bring the East up to their level. It took years. It was a money pit. Could this happen in Korea? Just thinking......"
I don't follow the bold portion in your statement.
Do you mean if N. and S. Korea were to become one country? OR ?
Help me, please.
Thank you
Catch
Yeah, just a thought.....if the North is poor, who's going to step in to help them? I'm sure we and China will some. But for South Korea (I think how this will be done) .... is with factories and jobs. Many companies will step in because of green and many will lose money. Not everybody wins at this game. It's costly to do this, plus, you need good management to lead. So it will impact profits of these companies. As for the little fat man.....he may lose his grip sooner rather than later. A dictator tends to fall fast as things change. Think Gorbachev and Tianenman Square, the Arab spring, the "Me, too! revolution. When a door opens, it tends to be very hard to close again. Does that mean one country? I think yes, over time. I mean, who (a year ago with missiles flying) thought we'd be here.
God bless
the Pudd
No formal peace treaty and 65 years later one would expect a population of normal human beings for all other reasons, but being in total isolation; will require many years of glide time to melt into any version of semi-modern. These folks would be like time travelers from our modern society having been transported to a much advanced society that we in the U.S. can not imagine. Pick you favorite "into the future" movie and attempt to grasp a world that we can not really imagine today.
The two Germany's had similar cultural and society backgrounds and exposures; but one was a "free state" and the other a "police state". The integration was smooth in comparison to the current state of affairs for the Korea's. Korea is 3rd globally in robotics use, has a highly educated society, is fiddling with things that are A.I. and not yet arrived and given the global marketplace a most sophisticated smart phone, eh?
---click on the image for N. & S. Korea.....a short read, too. Not that the use/waste of electricity is an indication of a country's modern place in standing on a global scale, but...
http://www.geocurrents.info/place/subsaharan-africa/dark-areas-earth-night-map
As to a N. Korea fix; reminds me of an article from one of the 1970 Playboy magazines that I still recall. The writer (well known from my recall, but I can't remember his name now), anyway; he detailed a plan where instead of the B-52's dropping bombs on N. Vietnam, the drops would be converted into dropping various appliances, power sources, repair parts and tools. Knowing some of the items would be damaged upon landing, the spare parts and tools would be needed. Eventually with this process spread into many other consumer areas, the end result being a new type of economy being created !!! Well, that is the drift, but not the full plan.
Note: Hugh Hefner was very anti-Vietnam war. Playboy magazine found many writers and interviews in this direction with some various serious discussions/writes.
One would hope that there are enough smart folks with the experience of time on their side to help with a possible plan for N. Korea; but I suspect such folks won't be called forth for advisement; as the "all knowing group is already in place".
Not unlike Vietnam, there are many factors. Sadly, normally smart folks who are in charge of much; for reasons of personality/ego won't seek advice, and likely today, as with Vietnam; too many with knowledge had been dismissed/retired from the state and defense dept's. and no one wanted/wants to give them a 5 minute phone call of their thoughts.
All this takes to go badly wrong is 1 or 2 folks who make the rules. If you're not familiar with the "Pentagon Papers", do a search for an overview of how easily things get out of control for the worse.
Nuff of my blabber and I've traveled a path I shouldn't and that I don't like others to travel, in perverting a decent and relevant thread topic. My only saving grace is that whatever actions come forth in the next month and forward may indeed cause a "buy-sell-ponder".
Good Evening,
Catch
From March 1982: Louis Rukeyser by Warren Kalbacker with photography by Larry Williams - The irreverent host of tv's "wall street week" shares his views on hot tips, reaganomics and the erotic appeal of money (Contents omitted) http://www.vintageplayboymags.co.uk/80s/Mar/02.htm
In any case, there is no way the 2 Korea's will ever be unified. China will never give up it's buffer and allow US troops on their doorstep.
Reason: World stock fund, want more intl exposure, and like the allocations.
This is a reversal to something I posted here a year or two ago when I mourned TRP's forray into quant-y funds. This is one such fund!
AOFAX is an interesting fund ... I've been thinking of reducing my position in SPECX and AOFAX might be someting for me to kick the tires on.
What drew you to AOFAX?
Thanks for making post about AOFAX.
Interestingly, I cut some money into it yesterday.
Sold FLPSX this week. Taking some profits and raising cash. Hoping for some weakness later in the year to buy. I have been checking what Japan means to China and China to Japan since I have a large amount of $$ there. I thought that the dollar or U.S. interest rates would drive their market.....but now I think it's what China does moreso with trade. There so intertwined, it seems....so if China starts to slow, it could be time to sell Japan. Also, something else I've seen.....almost all my funds own something in the United Kingdom. It's everywhere. While I'm seeing this also GLFOX ..... what the heck? 56% utilities, 27% in Italy with rates rising and QE coming to an end soon. It's like WTF? Who drew up that plan?
God bless
the Pudd
For the week ending of May 18th Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 154 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is now in fair value range on the barometer's scale. Seems, short interest remains at 2.5 days to cover while the 2/10 US Treasury yield spread steepened has moved from 0.43 to 0.53. I've heard some say that they look for the yield curve to continue to steepen.
During the week I added a new position to my small/mid cap sleeve (AOFAX).
In this rising interest rate environment my areas of special investment interest (in mutual funds) are money market, commodities, convertibles, regional banks & small caps. In addition, I'm still with maintaining my CD ladder and rolling CD's as they mature.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Yeah.....lol. It was a rainy afternoon. Hell, I'd have over-analyzed the latest box score if I had one.
God bless
the Pudd
Thanks for the question.
I try to limit my special investment themes to the ones that are a best fit within my own portfolio. And, with this, these are the ones I write about.
According to an Instant Xray analysis of my portfolio I've got (what I feel is) already ample coverage in energy at about 9% range. Engery overweight exposure can be found in a good number of mutual funds that I currently own plus my commodity strategy fund covers some energy as well.
Currently, I am directing money into funds that I already own that are on the upward move and trimming from some that are in decline or in some cases selling out a position. Over the past couple of years I started moving from a momentum based portfolio to a well diversified portfolio centering around modern portfolio theory but I never left momentum completely. Now, I moving back toward some momentum type set ups within my portfolio but not leaving MPT either.
Again, I felt I already had enoungh energy exposure so I chose not to engage any special investments in energy as the space, for me, was already covered. Where I felt I was short of was in commodities, convertibles, and small caps. In addition, I felt it wise to build some cash in this somewhat fully valued market since interest rates are on the rise making money markets and CD's a good place to park some of it.
You asked a good question. Now you know my reasoning, thinking and special investment positioning which is subject to change without disclosure although I do like to share some of it (from time-to-time) in hopes that it might help others discover some of the faster moving market currents.
Wishing all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
In answer to your question ... Yes.
I've got a good number in the eight to ten percent range in energy. Here are a few that I own that are heavy in energy ... SVAAX 16.4% ... HWIAX 15.1% ... PGUAX 14.8% ... FKINX 13.6% ... APIUX 13.5% ... FBLAX 13.5% & ABALX 10.4%. A good number of these are hybrid type funds with good yields. And, I'm sure if I dig around some more within my portfolio I could add a few more.
In general, I have found that my hybrid funds are the more adaptive to the forever changing investing environment. Currently, hybrid funds make up more than forty percent of my portfolio.
Old_Skeet
For the week ending of May 25th Old_Skeet's market barometer closed the week with a reading of 153 which indicates that the S&P 500 Index is in fair value territory based upon the barometer's metrics. Interestingly, for the week the best performing sector was utilities (a defensive sector) while short interest for SPY fell form 2.5 to 2.2 days to cover. In addition, the 2/10 treasury yield curve spread flattened moving from 0.53 to 0.45 along with the interest rate for the US 10 Year falling from 3.07% to 2.93%. I'm thinking that the 500 Index is now in a consolidation phase and will be range bound until a news worthy event drives it higher (or lower). After all, a recent good earnings season failed to bring us back to January highs as we begin to close out May. Summer is coming and I'm thinking things could really get slow due to mixed signals unless something like "Good News" moves us higher or "Bad News" moves us lower. I'm also thinking the Fed will raise interest rates at its June meeting.
During the week I rolled an 18 month maturing CD that had been paying 1.25% to one that is now paying 2.55%. In six months I'll have another one maturing. The 7 day yield on my two money market mutual funds GBAXX and AMAXX are 1.69% and 1.46% respectively. A third money market mutual fund that I have under review PINXX currently has a 7 day yield of 1.49%. I plan to fund PINXX with equity sale proceeds when taken. My money market mutual funds are where I am currently parking cash that I plan to latter use for investment purposes; and, I have a desire to keep these funds liquid while earning some interest income along the way.
Currently, my portfolio's asset allocation according to a recent Xray analysis bubbles at Cash 15%, Bonds 26%, US stocks 33%, Foreign stocks 20% and Other assets 6%. My three investment sectors of heaviest weightings and focus are financials, technology and consumer discretionary. From a style orientation I am about 70% large caps and 30% small/mid caps. Year-to-date I'm at pace with the Lipper Balance Index @ 0.4%. Interestingly, the estimated expense ratio of my portfolio as reported by Morningstar is 0.76% plus I have no wrap fees whatsoever on my accounts. Since, my portfolio has about a 3% yield which is more than ample to meet my cash flow needs I plan to just rock-a-long as we move into and through summer, closing shop until late summer or perhaps early fall.
During the past week I've noticed the risk off type assets within my portfolio are starting to mount an upward movement and finding good traction while the risk on type assets are starting to falter. I'm thinking we are going to see a leadership change as we move into and through summer with another leadership change taking place as we move into fall. Seems a seasonal tide is arriving with the old saw "Sell in May Come Back After St. Leger's Day" starting to take hold.
Remember, better than 40% of my portfolio is invested in hybrid funds (that are pretty active in the markets) so I now leave it to them to do the majority of the portfolio's positioning and asset allocation tweaking. For the most part, I now invest around the edges. Currently, my activity of late has been to add to my convertible securities fund, my commodity strategy fund along with my small/mid caps plus maintaining my CD ladder. Excess cash generation has been going into my money market mutual funds.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Wishing all a good holiday weekend ... but, most of all "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
Thanks so much for sharing your market barometer and what your current strategy is. I always come to this site on a weekly basis to read your updates and find I learn something.
Thank you for your comment. I am happy to learn that you found interest in Old_Skeet's market barometer. It has been helpful to me also over the years so I started posting it a few years ago on the board in hopes others would find benefit. Should I feel market conditions warrant a special post I'll do so along with a monthly recap through the summer months. Come late summer or early fall I'll return to posting weekly. Enjoy your summer.
Yep, generally the prime money market funds (that you referenced) have a higher yield while the government money market funds (that I referenced) have greater liquidity and lower yield.
Below is a link that list the highest paying money market funds by classification including tax free.
http://www.barrons.com/public/page/9_0204-trmfy.html
I'm currently have positioned better than half of my cash allocation in money market mutual funds and a CD ladder because this is part of my rising interest rate investment strategy. Much like you I'm seeing monthly increases in dividend and interest payments. In addition, I'm also looking for my convertible securities fund and commodity strategy fund to pay out some good distributions this year.