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Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
The "red" remark is relative to the first set of data for global markets, as one scrolls down. The clock icon at the right edge indicates full open trading. One will also see blinking of a line, as market numbers change.
This Omicron situation reminds everyone when the 2020 pandemic started. Even with the COVID vaccines, antibody and antiviral treatments, one would expect we would be in a much better situation but sadly we are not. I am not surprised that market futures are all red, indicating there is more downside to come in 2022.
Not so pretty on Monday morning. Holland has imposed lockdown while the rest of Europe has restricted travel across the boarder. Other part of the world is undergoing similar measures. Will have to wait if this take the same path as 2020. It took about a month to cut interest rate to 0.25% and buying $bullion of bonds monthly. Question is what is left in the tank?
Back in '08 I'd be getting excited at red markets and scrambling to hedge and/or trade it. Now, I'm like 'meh .... it's 'only' down 300 right now". ;/
I'll continue to watch things and stalk positions I want to own or increase, but otherwise am not getting excited here. Between covid, politics, and the usual end-of-year tax selling, this is pretty much what I expect, anyway.
Of course, I'm not enjoying this at all. But I try to keep in mind that one day's results are just a snapshot. Ben Graham wrote that every day, Mr. Market invites you to sell. I'm not selling. Trusting my Fund Managers. As for my tiny bite in ENIC: I'll see whether my money just evaporates. The Lefty won the election in Chile. Capitalists do not like Lefties.... No panic on my part, yet. Markets ALWAYS overreact, both to the upside and the downside.
@MikeM Yes....don't have a clue, of course. Hopefully, not a 2018 December puke. Dec. 1 thru the bottom on Xmas eve produced a -15.6% for SPY, with recovery even level price on Feb. 20, 2019.
So slow! Even Bloomberg has ditched most of their regular programming for the week. Mainly two old dudes gabbing all day (normal market tickers displayed of course). Some stale old recorded interviews. Will need to wait until January to get my regular fix.
But nothing stops these crazy averages from advancing. Interesting commentary in Barron’s this week by a regular contributor, Steven M. Sears. Equates the current red-hot futures markets with a gambling casino.
I think it’s worthwhile to keep this thread alive at least until the end of the year. The markets are somewhat schizophrenic today with the NAS down .5% and the Dow ahead by .25%. S&P flat (as of 1:00 PM.). I think a lot of us are anticipating a change in sentiment some time during the new year.
While The Nikkei 225 fell around .25% in Monday’s session, it more than made up for that with a +1.37% jump overnight. FLJP which I’ve owned a few weeks is up a bit today. Hard to beat the .09% ER if you’re looking to diversify away from the U.S. / Europe.
Not mentioned perhaps is that markets are presently trading on very thin volume due to many traders being off. Some days now only a fraction of the shares normally traded change hands. Likely, this impacts / exaggerates movements in both directions so that they may not represent the valuation as determined by the broader investment community. That was the subtle message in my reference to “slow” markets and the lack of really good coverage by some financial media outlets this week - as their staffs are curtailed due to the holidays.
"I think a lot of us are anticipating a change in sentiment some time during the new year." - Maybe this bearishness is what buoys the market? Sentiment is not exactly optimistic right now.
That and a boatload of "backed by the Fed" has the markets rolling along. The market decided in 2Q 2020 that it will just ignore the pandemic, as long as the Fed holds its hand.
Coincidence? Today Pres. Biden and Russian’s Vladimir Putin were scheduled to hold a telephone conference at 3:30 PM over the growing crisis atmosphere surrounding the Ukraine. Article
Almost on-queue the equity markets rolled over beginning around 3:30. All 3 major indexes turned red after a strong showing most of the day. And gold popped by $12.00. (Miners are currently ahead by about 2% for the day.)
Besides the risk of armed confrontation over the Ukraine there are many possible economic ramifications. Europe - particularly Germany - seems dependent on Russian natural gas for heating.
Alternate theory - Bloomberg attributes the change in markets to falling cruise industry stocks based on the latest CDC directive.
Here’s how the major indexes looked a few minutes before today’s close (on very thin trading):
Since the start of the Covid pandemic, hospitalizations/deaths follow a wave of infections by about 2 weeks or so. This has happened several times over the past 2 years in the earlier 4 waves. By mid-January, we'll have a pretty good idea of the scope and severity of this most current wave. Since many healthcare facilities are struggling currently with capacity, it may get ugly. The conversations where I live is, don't get sick....with anything. There might not be a bed for you.
So...I'm actually a bit surprised the markets have held up as well as they have given the widespread nature of this most current, the 5th wave. January may be bumpy. I hope not.
The month of December has been a risk-off and risk-on scenarios where investors are trying to figure out how badly the market can be impacted by Omicron variant. It has been a risk-off scenario for the last weeks.
This year uptick of infected cases exceeded last year's cases and the peak has yet to be reported. Hospitalization is dominated by the unvaccinated patients, >90%. Breakthrough cases are reported but these vaccinated (and boostered) patients are experiencing mild symptoms while being protected from serious hospitalization. We will see the peak of this wave several weeks after the New Year.
Lockdown is unlikely to take place this time around. I expected the market will be volatile in the first part of 2022. So have a decent cash position may not be a good idea. Several fund managers who have done well in 2020's drawdown are all holding 10%+ cash.
@BaluBalu I viewed the "red" again, too; late last evening and thought that it may not persist overnight...but. I'm placing the market links here again, versus keeping them only at the beginning of this post, for easier access.
The slow market melt remains, eh? Our house remains U.S. markets and growth equity oriented. I surely don't know where the money is hiding, at this moment; but there remains too much "hot" money looking for a home, at this point, IMHO. As to how much of a sell down is needed to bring the money back into the equity markets, I don't know.......the magic 8 ball is still awaiting repair parts. I do review technical data as to 14 day relative strength to discover what areas are moving towards or are at a "30" reading, which attempts to indicate an oversold or buy area for whatever is being reviewed.
Still watching.....
The "red" remark is relative to the first set of data for global markets, as one scrolls down. The clock icon at the right edge indicates full open trading. One will also see the blinking of a line, as market numbers change.
The selloff is from lofty levels. The “dippers” seem to be off-line again today. A few months ago I (teasingly) wagered one the Dow would dip to under 34,000 by end of 2021. I’d have lost that wager. But goes to show how high the markets remain.
About a 1.5% dip today across most markets mid morning. Oil is very hot due to tensions in the Middle East and over Ukraine. Gold’s flat, but silver shot up. SLV was more than 2% higher last look. Bonds are getting the blame. 10 year was up to 1.85% last night. Suspect it will drop back by day’s end.
I’m watching ARKK to see if its steep dive will level off before it crashes and burns. But it’s down more than the average market loss today. To some extent I think money has been rushing to perceived “safer” investments (ie from aggressive growth and tech to value and preferred stocks). Might be the right move. But it might also be akin to seeking safety on a sinking ship by climbing to the upper levels.
For the literary minded, one of my favorite Hemingway passages:
“Once in camp I put a log on a fire and it was full of ants. As it commenced to burn, the ants swarmed out and went first toward the center where the fire was; then turned back and ran toward the end. When there were enough on the end they fell off into the fire. Some got out, their bodies burnt and flattened, and went off not knowing where they were going. But most of them went toward the fire and then back toward the end and swarmed on the cool end and finally fell off into the fire. I remember thinking at the time that it was the end of the world and a splendid chance to be a messiah and lift the log off the fire and throw it out where the ants could get off onto the ground. But I did not do anything but throw a tin cup of water on the log, so that I would have the cup empty to put whiskey in before I added water to it. I think the cup of water on the burning log only steamed the ants.”
The “hot” in money can turn cold anytime if DC decides to go after crypto. Kosovo banned Crypto mining this week while our politicians are inviting all these miners. DC like the average investor does not seem to ever know when to take down risk or not to add risk. One can only hope that the busting of various bubbles do not converge into one giant crater and hopefully each one deflates separately in an orderly fashion - how often have we seen that occur?
Let it go down, please. The more, the better...for me. What I find funny is when someone "knows" the reason why it went down. So many predictions by so many "experts" have been wrong(link). So why did stocks go down? The only true reason is because there are more sellers than buyers.
Let it go down, please. The more, the better...for me. What I find funny is when someone "knows" the reason why it went down. So many predictions by so many "experts" have been wrong(link). So why did stocks go down? The only true reason is because there are more sellers than buyers.
Hi Hank, What a great post today! I needed that. Hemingway fireside read....just to forget about the red today. Thanks! This longneck is for you, Bro.....and the second one, too! God bless the Pudd
Comments
Not so pretty on Monday morning. Holland has imposed lockdown while the rest of Europe has restricted travel across the boarder. Other part of the world is undergoing similar measures. Will have to wait if this take the same path as 2020. It took about a month to cut interest rate to 0.25% and buying $bullion of bonds monthly. Question is what is left in the tank?
I'll continue to watch things and stalk positions I want to own or increase, but otherwise am not getting excited here. Between covid, politics, and the usual end-of-year tax selling, this is pretty much what I expect, anyway.
Buckle up, folks -- and enjoy the ride....
Santa Clause rally?
Yes....don't have a clue, of course. Hopefully, not a 2018 December puke.
Dec. 1 thru the bottom on Xmas eve produced a -15.6% for SPY, with recovery even level price on Feb. 20, 2019.
But nothing stops these crazy averages from advancing. Interesting commentary in Barron’s this week by a regular contributor, Steven M. Sears. Equates the current red-hot futures markets with a gambling casino.
“The Options Market is Now a Casino” - You might be able to view once without subscription - depending on browser. https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-options-market-is-now-a-casino-heres-how-to-bet-wisely-51640165403
Have a good evening, Derf
P.S. That may be an interesting thread.
While The Nikkei 225 fell around .25% in Monday’s session, it more than made up for that with a +1.37% jump overnight. FLJP which I’ve owned a few weeks is up a bit today. Hard to beat the .09% ER if you’re looking to diversify away from the U.S. / Europe.
Not mentioned perhaps is that markets are presently trading on very thin volume due to many traders being off. Some days now only a fraction of the shares normally traded change hands. Likely, this impacts / exaggerates movements in both directions so that they may not represent the valuation as determined by the broader investment community. That was the subtle message in my reference to “slow” markets and the lack of really good coverage by some financial media outlets this week - as their staffs are curtailed due to the holidays.
Thanks @Derf for this thread,
That and a boatload of "backed by the Fed" has the markets rolling along. The market decided in 2Q 2020 that it will just ignore the pandemic, as long as the Fed holds its hand.
Almost on-queue the equity markets rolled over beginning around 3:30. All 3 major indexes turned red after a strong showing most of the day. And gold popped by $12.00. (Miners are currently ahead by about 2% for the day.)
Besides the risk of armed confrontation over the Ukraine there are many possible economic ramifications. Europe - particularly Germany - seems dependent on Russian natural gas for heating.
Alternate theory - Bloomberg attributes the change in markets to falling cruise industry stocks based on the latest CDC directive.
Here’s how the major indexes looked a few minutes before today’s close (on very thin trading):
Dow 36,380.57 -108.06 -0.30%
S&P 500 4,776.77 -16.29 -0.34%
Nasdaq 15,733.95 -32.27 -0.20%
GlobalDow 4,136.61 -8.22 -0.20%
Gold 1,817.80 12.00 0.66%
Oil 76.58 0.02 0.03%
(From MarketWatch)
So...I'm actually a bit surprised the markets have held up as well as they have given the widespread nature of this most current, the 5th wave. January may be bumpy. I hope not.
This year uptick of infected cases exceeded last year's cases and the peak has yet to be reported. Hospitalization is dominated by the unvaccinated patients, >90%. Breakthrough cases are reported but these vaccinated (and boostered) patients are experiencing mild symptoms while being protected from serious hospitalization. We will see the peak of this wave several weeks after the New Year.
Lockdown is unlikely to take place this time around. I expected the market will be volatile in the first part of 2022. So have a decent cash position may not be a good idea. Several fund managers who have done well in 2020's drawdown are all holding 10%+ cash.
I viewed the "red" again, too; late last evening and thought that it may not persist overnight...but.
I'm placing the market links here again, versus keeping them only at the beginning of this post, for easier access.
The slow market melt remains, eh? Our house remains U.S. markets and growth equity oriented. I surely don't know where the money is hiding, at this moment; but there remains too much "hot" money looking for a home, at this point, IMHO. As to how much of a sell down is needed to bring the money back into the equity markets, I don't know.......the magic 8 ball is still awaiting repair parts. I do review technical data as to 14 day relative strength to discover what areas are moving towards or are at a "30" reading, which attempts to indicate an oversold or buy area for whatever is being reviewed.
Still watching.....
The "red" remark is relative to the first set of data for global markets, as one scrolls down. The clock icon at the right edge indicates full open trading. One will also see the blinking of a line, as market numbers change.
Global Futures and Active/Open Markets
NOTE: I'll add FINVIZ, mixed markets.
AND Global etf's, multi-sectors, active real time changes through a trading day.
Remain curious,
Catch
About a 1.5% dip today across most markets mid morning. Oil is very hot due to tensions in the Middle East and over Ukraine. Gold’s flat, but silver shot up. SLV was more than 2% higher last look. Bonds are getting the blame. 10 year was up to 1.85% last night. Suspect it will drop back by day’s end.
I’m watching ARKK to see if its steep dive will level off before it crashes and burns. But it’s down more than the average market loss today. To some extent I think money has been rushing to perceived “safer” investments (ie from aggressive growth and tech to value and preferred stocks). Might be the right move. But it might also be akin to seeking safety on a sinking ship by climbing to the upper levels.
For the literary minded, one of my favorite Hemingway passages:
“Once in camp I put a log on a fire and it was full of ants. As it commenced to burn, the ants swarmed out and went first toward the center where the fire was; then turned back and ran toward the end. When there were enough on the end they fell off into the fire. Some got out, their bodies burnt and flattened, and went off not knowing where they were going. But most of them went toward the fire and then back toward the end and swarmed on the cool end and finally fell off into the fire. I remember thinking at the time that it was the end of the world and a splendid chance to be a messiah and lift the log off the fire and throw it out where the ants could get off onto the ground. But I did not do anything but throw a tin cup of water on the log, so that I would have the cup empty to put whiskey in before I added water to it. I think the cup of water on the burning log only steamed the ants.”
What I find funny is when someone "knows" the reason why it went down. So many predictions by so many "experts" have been wrong(link).
So why did stocks go down? The only true reason is because there are more sellers than buyers.
What a great post today! I needed that. Hemingway fireside read....just to forget about the red today. Thanks! This longneck is for you, Bro.....and the second one, too!
God bless
the Pudd