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What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD. In terms of returns, HOSIX performed in line with HY bonds, hence my reference to BGHIX. What is unknown is how HOSIX will do when the space gets hit, and it inevitably will. What concerns me most is even looking at the structured space, other funds experienced significantly more volatility (the SD for CLOZ was 3.07 compared to 1.25 for HOSIX...and the max DD was 1.35 versus .16). Was this the result of better bond selection at HOSIX or the possibility that HOSIX has hard to price bonds such that volatility is masked when the bonds perform? Again, no one knows. I think I will still with JSVIX for now. Those guys from Semper have seen tough times before and that provides some comfort. Separate from these bond funds, I've been pretty impressed with BUYW in terms of risk v. reward. Good luck all!
Lots of trader comments which just brings stress to my thinking. I just bought 2 CDs at 4 and 4.2% at my local bank, while they are available. Money Market rates are falling pretty quickly now and don't expect any of them to make 4% much longer. Lots of comments about SD and Sharpe on bond oefs, but the last 3 years can produce misleading expectations going forward.
I suppose it comes down to which is more important to you, the 4% rate or just staying ahead of CD's and money markets. There are certainly inexpensive short and ultra-short funds that stick to old-fashioned, garden-variety government and corporate bonds/bill/notes that have track records back to the GFC, or even the dot com bust.
During ZIRP, a number of corporations offered (uninsured) accounts similar to savings or checking accounts backed by the corporation but with higher yields. One that might ring a faint bell was GMAC Demand Notes, later Ally Demand Notes (still uninsured). That, like most, went the way of the dodo. https://lifetimeplanning.com/hot-off-the-press/demand-notes-from-gmac-to-ally-to-you-now-what
Corporate Notes are something slightly different. They don't offer daily liquidity at par. E*Trade even calls them "medium-term-notes"; at least that's part of their URL.
What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD. In terms of returns, HOSIX performed in line with HY bonds, hence my reference to BGHIX. What is unknown is how HOSIX will do when the space gets hit, and it inevitably will. What concerns me most is even looking at the structured space, other funds experienced significantly more volatility (the SD for CLOZ was 3.07 compared to 1.25 for HOSIX...and the max DD was 1.35 versus .16). Was this the result of better bond selection at HOSIX or the possibility that HOSIX has hard to price bonds such that volatility is masked when the bonds perform? Again, no one knows. I think I will still with JSVIX for now. Those guys from Semper have seen tough times before and that provides some comfort. Separate from these bond funds, I've been pretty impressed with BUYW in terms of risk v. reward. Good luck all!
What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD.
Nope. Both performance and risk/SD were great. That's 2 knockouts. RPHIX has better SD than HOSIX but performance is far behind. This is exactly what I'm looking for. Performance + lower SD. It doesn't mean I get the best performance; I get good risk-adjusted performance funds.
Remember, SD is based on monthly numbers and does not always show the volatility. I don't invest in typical HY or EM, and if I do, it's only for weeks. But if I'm looking for riskier funds, EGRIX, and APDPX would be top funds for me. See 3+ years of EGRIX, APDPX, BGHIX (link).
WABAC:"I suppose it comes down to which is more important to you, the 4% rate or just staying ahead of CD's and money markets. There are certainly inexpensive short and ultra-short funds that stick to old-fashioned, garden-variety government and corporate bonds/bill/notes that have track records back to the GFC, or even the dot com bust."
What is "important" to me is the least risky way to make at least 4% total return. For the last 3 years, the least risky way was in CDs and MMs. I don't see that continuing. I see Ultra Short term bond funds as very unlikely to do that going forward, as interest rates fall. Some Short Term bond funds are possibilities, especially those focusing on corporate bonds, or on junkier grade bonds. Another option is more flexible multisector or nontraditional bond oefs, that can shift investing strategies and options as needed to handle falling interest rates. I am not sure where I will land, but I am not a trader, so I will look for funds with lower volatility, and are easier to buy and hold for longer periods of time. If I had to make a decision today, I would look strongly at funds like HOSIX and CBLDX, but my CDs start maturing in December and so I have a little time to make that decision.
@dtconroe, knowing what you want is half the battle.
Who knows where interest rates will be in December. I don't see how they get much lower if inflation doesn't start to drop. Continuing increases in inflation "in line with expectations" don't sound like a long-term tranquilizer to me.
What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD. In terms of returns, HOSIX performed in line with HY bonds, hence my reference to BGHIX. What is unknown is how HOSIX will do when the space gets hit, and it inevitably will. What concerns me most is even looking at the structured space, other funds experienced significantly more volatility (the SD for CLOZ was 3.07 compared to 1.25 for HOSIX...and the max DD was 1.35 versus .16). Was this the result of better bond selection at HOSIX or the possibility that HOSIX has hard to price bonds such that volatility is masked when the bonds perform? Again, no one knows. I think I will still with JSVIX for now. Those guys from Semper have seen tough times before and that provides some comfort. Separate from these bond funds, I've been pretty impressed with BUYW in terms of risk v. reward. Good luck all!
What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD.
Nope. Both performance and risk/SD were great. That's 2 knockouts. RPHIX has better SD than HOSIX but performance is far behind. This is exactly what I'm looking for. Performance + lower SD. It doesn't mean I get the best performance; I get good risk-adjusted performance funds.
Remember, SD is based on monthly numbers and does not always show the volatility. I don't invest in typical HY or EM, and if I do, it's only for weeks. But if I'm looking for riskier funds, EGRIX, and APDPX would be top funds for me. See 3+ years of EGRIX, APDPX, BGHIX (link).
The fact is that since the inception of HOSIX its CAGR is 8.97 versus 8.01 for BGHIX. I get the comparison over the past three years of the funds you listed on PV...but if you go back past 3 years you can look at how HOBIX compares to BGHIX (surrogate for the HY space) back to 2016. While I get that HOBIX is not HOSIX, if I recall correctly it was still a fund heavily invested in the securitized space. It's not such a pretty picture for HOBIX as BGHIX performed better overall, and even better compared to EGRIX, which shows how different times can yield very different outcomes.
@WABC. Rates will continue to lower if FED independence is destroyed. Seems that is going to happen and sooner rather than later. And if all the data the new fed gets is garbage , they can justify any rates the boss demands.
@WABC. Rates will continue to lower if FED independence is destroyed. Seems that is going to happen and sooner rather than later. And if all the data the new fed gets is garbage , they can justify any rates the boss demands.
Since the recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury rates have actually risen rather than fallen. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently about 4.14%, up slightly from around 4.01% shortly before the Fed's rate cut. Similarly, the 30-year Treasury yield stands at approximately 4.76%, indicating a rise as well. Shorter-term rates, such as the 5-year Treasury, are around 3.71%, also ticking higher. The effective federal funds rate dropped 25 basis points to about 4.08% after the cut, but the longer-term Treasury yields have not followed the typical pattern of decreasing; instead, they have increased or remained stable since the cut.
This phenomenon, where long-term yields rise after a rate cut, has been observed previously and is often influenced by inflation expectations and supply-demand dynamics in the bond market rather than just the Fed's policy rates. The yield curve has steepened, and mortgage rates have also moved higher despite the short-term rate cut.
@WABC. you are correct about what the Fed actually controls. But me and DT and millions of risk averse folks are seeing our risk free income going away. And the markets sure are obsessed with the overnight rates. Perhaps foolishly so.
@dtconroe, knowing what you want is half the battle.
Who knows where interest rates will be in December. I don't see how they get much lower if inflation doesn't start to drop. Continuing increases in inflation "in line with expectations" don't sound like a long-term tranquilizer to me.
Yep, all we are doing on this thread is gathering opinions and guesses about the future. I have some experience investing in bond oefs. and I always value others' opinions and rationale. Hopefully, this thread has been helpful to a few others who are charting their investing paths for 2026.
What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD. In terms of returns, HOSIX performed in line with HY bonds, hence my reference to BGHIX. What is unknown is how HOSIX will do when the space gets hit, and it inevitably will. What concerns me most is even looking at the structured space, other funds experienced significantly more volatility (the SD for CLOZ was 3.07 compared to 1.25 for HOSIX...and the max DD was 1.35 versus .16). Was this the result of better bond selection at HOSIX or the possibility that HOSIX has hard to price bonds such that volatility is masked when the bonds perform? Again, no one knows. I think I will still with JSVIX for now. Those guys from Semper have seen tough times before and that provides some comfort. Separate from these bond funds, I've been pretty impressed with BUYW in terms of risk v. reward. Good luck all!
What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD.
Nope. Both performance and risk/SD were great. That's 2 knockouts. RPHIX has better SD than HOSIX but performance is far behind. This is exactly what I'm looking for. Performance + lower SD. It doesn't mean I get the best performance; I get good risk-adjusted performance funds.
Remember, SD is based on monthly numbers and does not always show the volatility. I don't invest in typical HY or EM, and if I do, it's only for weeks. But if I'm looking for riskier funds, EGRIX, and APDPX would be top funds for me. See 3+ years of EGRIX, APDPX, BGHIX (link).
The fact is that since the inception of HOSIX its CAGR is 8.97 versus 8.01 for BGHIX. I get the comparison over the past three years of the funds you listed on PV...but if you go back past 3 years you can look at how HOBIX compares to BGHIX (surrogate for the HY space) back to 2016. While I get that HOBIX is not HOSIX, if I recall correctly it was still a fund heavily invested in the securitized space. It's not such a pretty picture for HOBIX as BGHIX performed better overall, and even better compared to EGRIX, which shows how different times can yield very different outcomes.
You are concentrating on the wrong things:
* DT doesn't care about ONLY performance. He cares a lot more about performance and volatility for his own goals. BGHIX would never be an option.
* My style and goals are a bit different. I don't mind taking more risk/SD but only to a certain point. Investing in BGHIX long term for me would be rare. I'm looking for funds that have done well lately + very low SD. I'm also a slow trader. I don't care what BGHIX did 3-4-8 years ago. The fact remains that HOSIX did great during 2023-4.
* If I was looking to hold several years from today, I would hold EGRIX, not BGHIX. Of course the future is unknown, which is why I have never committed to holding since 2000 while I see better funds.
Unlike some funds mentioned above, Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return Advantage Fund (EGRIX) pays dividends annually, if that's a consideration to some.
Lots of great insights in this thread. I'm already invested in Eaton Vance Global Macro Absolute Return Advantage Fund and intend to open a new position in Artisan Global Unconstrained.
davidf: i believe fd once held egrix in a taxable account for that very reason, so he could sell it before the x-div time and avoid all the taxable distributions you get from a monthly payer and the annual EGRIX one. he'd still have to deal w/ short term gains on the sale if there were any, of course, but i think he figured they'd be less than the annual distribution at the very least. or some such. i could be totally wrong.
Comments
Has BOXX come up for discussion?
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/62043/boxx-etf
https://lifetimeplanning.com/hot-off-the-press/demand-notes-from-gmac-to-ally-to-you-now-what
I was able to find one that still exists, though I don't recommend it. GM Financial Right Notes.
https://www.rightnotes.com/en-us/home.html
Last week it was yielding 4.5%, this week, 4.25% IMHO not enough to compensate for the risk, even for a liquid investment.
https://www.fidelity.com/fixed-income-bonds/individual-bonds/corporate-bonds/corporate-notes-program
https://us.etrade.com/knowledge/library/bonds-cds/medium-term-notes
RPHIX has better SD than HOSIX but performance is far behind.
This is exactly what I'm looking for. Performance + lower SD. It doesn't mean I get the best performance; I get good risk-adjusted performance funds.
Remember, SD is based on monthly numbers and does not always show the volatility.
I don't invest in typical HY or EM, and if I do, it's only for weeks.
But if I'm looking for riskier funds, EGRIX, and APDPX would be top funds for me.
See 3+ years of EGRIX, APDPX, BGHIX
(link).
You can also see YTD at (https://schrts.co/egqaVFzj)
What is "important" to me is the least risky way to make at least 4% total return. For the last 3 years, the least risky way was in CDs and MMs. I don't see that continuing. I see Ultra Short term bond funds as very unlikely to do that going forward, as interest rates fall. Some Short Term bond funds are possibilities, especially those focusing on corporate bonds, or on junkier grade bonds. Another option is more flexible multisector or nontraditional bond oefs, that can shift investing strategies and options as needed to handle falling interest rates. I am not sure where I will land, but I am not a trader, so I will look for funds with lower volatility, and are easier to buy and hold for longer periods of time. If I had to make a decision today, I would look strongly at funds like HOSIX and CBLDX, but my CDs start maturing in December and so I have a little time to make that decision.
Who knows where interest rates will be in December. I don't see how they get much lower if inflation doesn't start to drop. Continuing increases in inflation "in line with expectations" don't sound like a long-term tranquilizer to me.
The fact is that since the inception of HOSIX its CAGR is 8.97 versus 8.01 for BGHIX. I get the comparison over the past three years of the funds you listed on PV...but if you go back past 3 years you can look at how HOBIX compares to BGHIX (surrogate for the HY space) back to 2016. While I get that HOBIX is not HOSIX, if I recall correctly it was still a fund heavily invested in the securitized space. It's not such a pretty picture for HOBIX as BGHIX performed better overall, and even better compared to EGRIX, which shows how different times can yield very different outcomes.
* DT doesn't care about ONLY performance. He cares a lot more about performance and volatility for his own goals. BGHIX would never be an option.
* My style and goals are a bit different. I don't mind taking more risk/SD but only to a certain point. Investing in BGHIX long term for me would be rare. I'm looking for funds that have done well lately + very low SD. I'm also a slow trader. I don't care what BGHIX did 3-4-8 years ago. The fact remains that HOSIX did great during 2023-4.
* If I was looking to hold several years from today, I would hold EGRIX, not BGHIX. Of course the future is unknown, which is why I have never committed to holding since 2000 while I see better funds.