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Buy -- Sell -- Ponder -- January 2018

13

Comments

  • My "timing" is atrocious, almost never benefits me.
    You're not alone. The good news is we can learn from that.
  • edited January 2018
    welcome :)

    I am sure I will be buying back in (etf or DSENX) presently, and for sure on any dipping
  • Sold my entire position in ABBV after watching it defy gravity over the past year. Since this was in my taxable portfolio, in which I generally have my bonds and two or three stocks mainly for income, figured it was time. I had vacillated with this one more than others I have owned since it is still considered undervalued by some. Almost sold it in 2017, decided to wait, since the tax rates would be lower in 2018. All of these gains were in only one year. This has always been my biggest challenge, when to sell when gains are much larger than anticipated.
  • @MM

    >> good news is we can learn from that

    I never have, I think.
  • @mcmarasco- You're far from alone, if that's any consolation.
  • Old_Joe it does help! Thx!!
  • edited January 2018
    The odds of getting a call right near term are very small. Even greatly overvalued assets tend to rise far above their reasonable valuation points - for years in some cases. Same process happens on the way down. I think it’s normal psychology to expect to see a “buy” or “sell” prove ourself right. To some extent we delude ourselves into thinking we excercise some control over the markets. Of course no one really believes that. Just part of our make-up.

    To make @mcmarasco feel better, it’s entirely possible to have made the “right” decision only to have irrational markets behave in an entirely contrary fashion.
  • edited January 2018
    sold still more DSENX today in one Roth, so it is now largely cash.
  • David-what's the thought on selling DSENX?
  • hank you are absolutely correct, but it's good to know you are not alone in your thought process, right or wrong.

    Investors have NO CONTROL over the markets, only our emotions and decisions.
  • @Carefree, read upward, just a deluded sense of timing smarts, will be back in presently

    otoh I need lots cash this year for children, so there is that

    I will not say I know what I am doing, really.
  • 2017 was quite a good year. My 2 core funds, my anchors, are still PRWCX and MAPOX. The first is about double the size of the second. Today, I sliced a sliver off PRDSX and added that sliver to PRIDX. The trade will go through on Monday. PRDSX is 6.14% of portf. and PRIDX is 7.71%. I still have just 11% of portf. in foreign stuff. As for bonds, I'm 15% in PREMX and 9% in PRSNX--- STILL. I have not pulled the trigger on PRSNX yet. (Thought I might switch into TUHYX or RPIHX.)
  • Took some distributions from HQL accumulated in my Roth in last few years and added to ISMRX and GPGOX. In a taxable account, I used proceeds from XMLV to buy RYT.
  • @Crash - May I ask why you are thinking about selling PRSNX? Thanks.
  • @Crash - May I ask why you are thinking about selling PRSNX? Thanks.

    I'm wanting bigger monthly dividends. Stretching, I suppose. The fund is solid, I'm not unhappy. I always wait quite a while before selling-out completely from a fund. PRSNX has done for me what it's supposed to do. I've been thinking, why have 2 different FOREIGN bond funds? The other is PREMX. So, I'll chew on it some more, maybe talk myself out of it.

  • edited January 2018
    Hello.

    This is Old_Skeet’s weekly barometer report for the weekending January 19, 2018.

    Last week I reported that the 500 Index was extermely overbought with a barometer reading of 128. This week the reading is found to be the same at 128 and, with this, the Index remains extremely overbought as scored by the metrics found in the barometer. If the reading should drop much lower it will be off the scale. Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading.

    For the week short interest for SPY is found to be 1.8 days to cover.

    In review of the 500 Index compass the lead pack remains XLE (energy), XLF (financials) & XLY (consumer discretionary). Within the lead pack my spiff hound remains XLY and has for sometime as the consumer continues to spend. The bogey hound for this compass is EQL.

    In review of the global compass the lead pack consists of GSP (commodities), EEM (emerging markets) & EWJ (Japan). Last week EEM had pulled back a bit but has now regained its momentum and edges out VTI (domestic stocks) for third place. Within the lead pack my spiff hound remains GSP and has for sometime as good demand for commodities continues. The bogey hound for this compass is VT.

    This investment strategy was derived from a betting strategy I used years back at the dog track. The betting strategy was that I’d bet three dogs to either win, place or show during the early to mid races. This strategy provided a number of ways to have a dog (or dogs) be in the money. And, for me, this resulted in some good winnings as I had a prety good system that aided me in picking some good opportunity dogs for a wager.

    Thanks for stopping by and reading.

    I wish all … “Good Investing.”

    Old_Skeet
  • Howdy @Crash
    Have you a yield number from a bond fund which you consider to be high enough, to suit your needs, at this point in the bond(s) investment cycle?
    PRSNX indicates a current 30 day yield of 3.5% and a trailing 12 month yield of 3.41%. The yield is already increasing, yes?
    If one is seeking a 20% yield increase from this fund this would = about a 4.2% yield, a 30% yield increase would = about 4.55% yield. Would these yields satisfy your yield/dividend requirements for a bond fund of this style?
    With a active managed bond fund, one would hope that management would be able to keep the price decline of the fund to the minimum as bond yields increase.
    This would be the trade off for a higher yield at this time, a reduction of pricing for the fund (less value to the investor, but perhaps a wash from a higher yield).
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Hello, @Catch22: The three I've zeroed-in on are: PTIAX, TUHYX and RPIHX, though the latter is "global," not strictly domestic. ...PTIAX is mostly MBS. ... TUHYX is corporate junk. ...RPIHX is corporates, with just a bit of bank loans. What they spit-out and distribute to shareholders right now is considerably higher than the monthly div. from PRSNX.

    I bought (EM) PREMX in 2010, late for the 2009 go-go-full steam ahead party in EM bonds. I bought initially at $13.26, and have never seen PREMX at $13.26 again. But I've reinvested everything, and along the way, I pulled a huge chunk out to re-deploy into a more normal diversified portfolio. PREMX has made serious money for me, despite the share price remaining below my initial purchase-price. I added a bit to it after end-of-year 2017 cap gains and dividends in my other TRP funds. And PREMX has not disastrously imploded on account of the Venezuela holdings.

    ...When share price sinks, yield rises, I understand. I see that PRSNX holds bonds in many cases in places like DEVELOPED Europe, where bonds are yielding less than 1%. I'd like to get more than PRSNX is offering. My timing might be all wrong, but timing the market is a thing I never tried to do. I started investing in 2003, and do not play around much with my portfolio--- though the current portf. is quite different from the way it looked 15 years ago.

    Yield:
    RPIHX 5.78
    TUHYX 4.75 (30-day)
    PTIAX 5.51
    PRSNX 3.41

    I'm not worried at all about finding a bond fund to replace PRSNX which is of a similar sort.
  • @Crash, I know this has been discussed here before and the consensus pretty much is if this money is in a tax deferred account, it is total return that matters not the dividends. These higher yield dividends you seek are incidental unless they translate to higher total return. Is this a concept you disagree with?
  • Crash said:

    @Crash - May I ask why you are thinking about selling PRSNX? Thanks.

    I'm wanting bigger monthly dividends. Stretching, I suppose. The fund is solid, I'm not unhappy. I always wait quite a while before selling-out completely from a fund. PRSNX has done for me what it's supposed to do. I've been thinking, why have 2 different FOREIGN bond funds? The other is PREMX. So, I'll chew on it some more, maybe talk myself out of it.

    Ahhh ok, thanks for the explanation. PRSNX is my only foreign bond fund (aside from the foreign exposure in PIMIX). I've never pulled the trigger on an emerging markets bond fund.
  • @willmat72: (But PRSNX is not EM, just FOREIGN.) @MikeM: Thank you, sir! You've made the issue very plain and easy to understand. I shall "leave well enough alone."
  • Crash said:

    @willmat72: (But PRSNX is not EM, just FOREIGN.) @MikeM: Thank you, sir! You've made the issue very plain and easy to understand. I shall "leave well enough alone."

    Understood. I've never been able to determine whether the EM bond risk is worth it. So I stuck with PRSNX as a global bond fund only.
  • Understood. I've never been able to determine whether the EM bond risk is worth it. So I stuck with PRSNX as a global bond fund only.


    I'd say the risk (of investing in EM bonds) has been worth it. Over the course of 7+ years, PREMX has averaged a bit over 6 cents per share, per month. It's up to each of us, anyhow to gauge our risk tolerance. PRSNX is offering me over 3 cents per month. Helluva lot better than 10-year Treasuries or CDs in the bank. But a credit union is really the way to go, if you ask me.;)
  • edited January 2018
    EMs (bonds and stocks) are highly cyclical. Conventional wisdom over the last 40-50 years has been that EM stocks will outpace more modernized economies over the long haul. Sir John Templeton used to make that point. However, during the decade or so that I owned his funds, his more sedate TEMWX did much better than the EM heavy TEGOX, which had higher fees and a lot more volatility.

    I don’t think anyone really knows. At my age I’d maybe play them if they looked beaten up enough to catch a nice bounce. But I don’t want to own EM on a protracted basis - particularly the stocks, which can drop 30-40% before you can say “ouch”.
  • Point taken, Hank. And as for EM stocks, I'll stick with SFGIX, despite my previous grousing.
  • Hi guys!
    Last week, in The Economist, they had a piece on India.....the great lie of the middle class in India. It's not China of 20 years ago. E-commerce in India in 2017 was about that in China for a week. US companies can't make any money there. GDP per person is $1700 --- and 80% of the people make less. 3% of the population own these 5 things: car or scooter, TV, computer, A/C or refrigerator. Top 1% make $20,000 --- good paying jobs are thin. Education is very poor.....1 in 9 is illiterate. Most US companies aren't selling basics, so they can't make money. Slick said a while back India was not a buy. From what I read, good call!
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • Bought Starbucks. The stock not the coffee. It was on sale earlier.
  • I was just looking at some stocks YTD - Netflix up 43% since Jan. 1? Does that sound correct?
  • I was just looking at some stocks YTD - Netflix up 43% since Jan. 1? Does that sound correct?

    Yup. Pretty crazy, eh?

  • Hate to be missing the Trump bump, but Cinnamond isn't buying, so far as I can tell. (My legacy accounts have enough for the next ten years.) RBS is finally doing well, and I think TEVA will work out. GE will probably work out over a few years, so will average down. Bought some Vanguard Overseas a few months back when my university restricted my options (possibly a good idea, since it's cheaper), although I think I'd be several thousand ahead now otherwise with my previous Fido investment (mostly overseas), but I never know when to sell. Riding VPMAX and VHCAX (adding the yearly minimums) plus VGHAX for the next decade, and moving money from my TDA account into them at the allowable rate. (In hopes that there won't be enough money left when my dementia becomes obvious [strong family history]) for any financial harm to be done.
    Will be living on SSI and RMDs from 2019 on, so good ideas are appreciated. (I've really benefited from some, so this is not an idle comment.)
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