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Buy Sell Why: 2022. Now, 2023.

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  • @johnN, while Stockcharts shows RSI(14) for $UST2Y, etc, it isn't really important. You are locking in yield at purchase to maturity, and for ST (up to 5 yrs), you can just hold on to maturity. See a nearby thread on $UST1Y at 4%.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcxuvmNXEAEa_3t?format=jpg&name=medium
  • edited September 2022
    Hi sir YogiBullBear Ty so much

    Prob buy SHY for mama acct

    Not sure if anything come out of it Ussr china maybe meeting soon

    Kind regards
  • edited September 2022
    "One non-investment suggestion is to watch some benchmark funds that you think approximate your risk level. (Don’t have to own them.) Than see how your portfolio holds up against those benchmarks.
    If you’re doing a lot worse over time, that’s something to worry about."


    That's good advice.
  • Great idea, actually. +1.
  • edited September 2022
    >> ... be careful. The downturn could go on for a number of years. (But might not). Don’t think you know all the answers. Nobody does.

    love it, simply love it

    [[edited to add /sarc tag]]
  • edited September 2022
    Thank you

    Think large recession Loomming now prob for remaining this yr and very long time next yr

    Housing sector will turn over soon and may remain very weak for 12 months at least

    Us jobs probably be bad in few months w all demand destruction from feds policies and corporations do not perform well to keep hiring/lots terminations/weaken job market

    Inflation may have peak last few months....? Deflationary picture in 5 6 months??

    I think sp500 liklely will retest June lows and may leg down lowered < 3600 but no one knows how low we can go

    Market usually bottom 1/3 or 1/2 way through recession

    1962 recession showed double dip but rises after... Current Sp500 chart may resemble 1962


    For me no changes, has 17 yrs left. Keep buying tdf2050 and stocks in tsp-401k. May slow down w private trading portfolio, wait a little while w private trading portfolio or buy good fundamentals //healthcare /tech /banks/etf stocks

    New bull cycle maybe after ??!! Xmas
  • edited September 2022
    Submitted purchase for 26-week T-Bills (3.811% indicative yield) at tomorrow's auction.
  • edited September 2022
    Good idea. 26 weeks treasury is in the sweet spot near 4%, whereas the yields flattens out quickly beyond 2 years. Also the auction is taken place weekly on Monday at brokerages or directly at TreasuryDirect.

    After September rate hike, treasury yields will go up again. Think treasury yield at 5% or more by year end is not unreasonable.
  • For those who want to buy at auctions only, 26-week is every week, while the next 1-yr on 10/4/22, next 2-yr on 9/26/22, next 5-yr TIPS on 10/20/22.
  • edited September 2022
    TIPS are finally offering positive real yields.
    The 10-Year TIPS has a 1.07% real yield in the secondary market.
    There is a 10-Year TIPS reopening auction scheduled on Sept. 22.
    The 5-Year TIPS has a 1.14% real yield in the secondary market.
    It will be interesting to see Oct. 20 auction results for 5-Year TIPS.
  • edited September 2022

    Submitted purchase for 26-week T-Bills (3.811% indicative yield) at tomorrow's auction.

    Good choice on the 26 week Ts. Right now my plan's to buy the 26 wk next week, after another bill matures.
  • I made several similar orders lately. But I have a slight concern with respect to Treasuries vs cash. Fidelity money market fund FZDXX yields 2.23% now. When fed rises rates, it follows accordingly, with a short delay, so perhaps in a week or two it will yield 2.9%, and then few months later it will be about 3.5% or more. All that with maximal liquidity, which may come handy if in the next 6 months market plunges and then start running up. I still think that 26 weeks Treasuries is a good deal as compared to cash, but this may be different for different people.
  • Bought today more Treasuries maturing on 4/30/23 at an yield of 3.95%.
  • bunch of tramx went to tuhyx. still light on bonds, at 23 percent of total. as of tomorrow, closing out tramx and putting the proceeds into prfdx. top holdings =
    prwcx (biggest by a LOT)
    prisx
    tuhyx
    prnex
    prfdx

    Total number of holdings including 9 percent in single stocks now = 10.
  • Place order for Treasuries via Schwab,& it was smooth to do.
  • I'm trying to figure out what the allure here is for Treasuries versus a CD. What am I missing? Looking this morning in Schwab, one year for both is 4% . I have a CD maturing in a couple days and I'm wondering why people are choosing the bond over CD.
  • MikeM said:

    I'm trying to figure out what the allure here is for Treasuries versus a CD. What am I missing? Looking this morning in Schwab, one year for both is 4% . I have a CD maturing in a couple days and I'm wondering why people are choosing the bond over CD.

    This topic has come up before. Brokered CDs are not as liquid and don't match the credit rating of Treasuries. If nearly the same rates, go with Treasuries, but if the CD rates are too generous to pass up, go with CDs.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/308/brokered-cds
  • Thanks @yogibearbull. Very nice write-up on CDs. Personally with interest rates equal, I'll stick to CDs for continuity. But at least now I will keep an eye on the treasury market to compare which rate is better at the time.

    Thank you for answering my question.
  • edited September 2022
    JNK Etf hy-bonds or bonds etf fbnd appears with very attractive prices.

    Personally I think UST could be too high and has records gains past 10 month/prices maybe too high...... If long time horizontal maybe jnk bonds could be little better
  • @johnN, for buying Treasuries to be held to maturities, "too high" (for yield) doesn't matter. The rate is locked in at purchase.

    BTW, prices this year are down for Treasury "funds". https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=SHY&compare=IEF,TLT&id=p25950705860
  • @MikeM - RE TBill vs CDs...keep in mind that Treasuries are EXEMPT from state and local taxes (but not federal taxes), CDs you pay state and local depending what state you are domiciled in.

    @johnN - I wouldn't touch JNK bonds here with your ten foot pole...just waiting for the house of cards to crumble, how will they re finance as interest rates go higher and higher...a lot of these are already zombie companies...defaults?

    And now we wait and hope that Powell does not have gas after having lunch today....what a shit show....so binary, doesn't even matter what stonks you own only that you are in or out and to what extent....

    Dribbling more into ATESX, a little CCOR, a little JEPI....always laddering bigly into 3M to 2YR Tbill/Treasuries, starting to get a little leary of the trend followers, BLNDX etc...starting to get concerned about trend reversal bigly flushes.

    Good Luck to ALL,

    Baseball Fan
  • @yogibearbull- Your writeup on CDs is an excellent summary. Thanks for that.
  • edited September 2022
    I've got a pretty decent ladder going on CDs, both direct and brokered. Keeping maturities down to about 6 mths, as it sure looks like the rates are going to keep going up for a while.
  • @Old_Joe : Any reason you are laddering CD'S instead of Treasuries ? I recently purchased my first T-bill ,26 week. $6 fee , but interest is removed from State tax. My local bank is now offering CD's at 2%. Mighty big of them ! I do have some CD's purchased through Schwab & VG , 6 months or less.
    The question is , when to go longer on the CD's & T's

    Good investing to you, Derf
  • edited September 2022
    I ran into a brick wall trying to set up a Treasury Direct account. They evidently use some outside service provider to do a quick and dirty check on the information that you provide, and if there's any "flags" Treasury basically says that they don't want to deal with it, and here's this long form, fill it out and take it someplace and have it verified and bla bla bla. Screw it.

    Pull up Schwab on computer, check available FDIC CD rate offerings, click "Buy", thank you very much, end of story.
  • @Old_Joe, Treasuries can be bought commission-free at auctions or in the secondary market at major brokerages.

    Only I-Bonds are limited to Treasury Direct.
  • edited September 2022
    Shy JNK down today too

    No support
    Maybe bad 6 9 months bears

    Sp500 may go to 3000 as advertised previously
  • edited September 2022
    Thanks, Yogi- I hadn't looked at that at Schwab... I'll be checking that out. How does one participate in the auctions?
    OJ
  • Old_Joe said:

    Thanks, Yogi- I hadn't looked at that at Schwab... I'll be checking that out. How does one participate in the auctions?
    OJ

    I outlined the process for TIPS in the link below, but the procedure is very similar for other Treasuries.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/278/mechanics-buying-selling-yr-tips
  • edited September 2022
    Thanks again, Yogi. I already checked out Schwab- that looks easy- about the same setup as for CDs.
    OJ
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