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Buy Sell Why: 2022

edited March 17 in Fund Discussions
Sold out of PTIAX. Preserve profit. Pay off the furniture we bought at zero interest.
The rest will go into the sweep account until I consider my options. A chance to grow cash. Never managed to do that, in all these years. Dry powder is good to have around.
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Comments

  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why had its last post in February 2021, so it moved far-far down.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/56627/perpetual-buy-sell-why-thread/p5
  • Thumbs up, YBB!
  • edited March 16

    Here it is …

    image
  • giggle giggle giggle yuk. Hee hee.
  • edited March 17
    Since Jan. 1

    New Position (Bought)

    DRSK
    GLDB
    Y (Allegheny)
    QLS
    QMN
    DODEX
    BAMBX


    Tactical Buys & Sells (Still own)

    TAIL
    RIO
    GLDB
    DRSK


    Sold All

    TMSRX
    PSMM
    AOK
    PRSIX
    DKNG
    QED


    5 Largest Positions (+ - 8%)

    DODLX
    PRPFX
    BAMBX
    QLS
    ABRZX
  • @Crash It might make sense to relabel this as Buy Sell Why 2022?....just a thought.

    Still watching and sitting in Hold position since year-end shuffling completed in early January.
  • edited March 17
    +1. @davfor

    I was sticking to my knitting, following my pre-planned Order of Battle, shifting into bonds, earlier, and reached my 60% bonds goal in the portfolio. Ballast, reduce volatility..... Along came changing realities: rising rates, war, inflation, supply issues..... I still own a big hunk of bonds. But I just exchanged a mouthful of them for TRP Financial Services, PRISX.

    After cashing-out PTIAX, that $$$ will go to the sweep account until I decide on a fitting destination for the money. My ENIC has been a true dawg--- until 3 days ago. I'm liking the action there. Limit order is in for $1.60.

    Something else I've uncovered: ATGFF. AltaGas. Lots of US customers, but HQ in Calgary. Nice dividend. Would love to get it a bit below Fair Value.
  • edited March 17
    @Crash - This used to be a popular thread / topic. Not sure why it lost interest.


    I’ve made a lot more moves than I typically do this year for several reasons:

    (1) Having moved to Fido from TRP last year has opened up a rich universe of funds (especially ETFs) I never knew existed. As I’ve investigated the much wider menu of offerings, I’ve moved into some - usually from former TRP funds. The change also opened the door for owning specific stocks, though they’re limited to about 10% of total investments.

    (2) The world of investing is shifting with the uptick in interest rates. I think it’s a long term trend. So, I’ve lightened up on bond heavy funds (like PRSIX / PSMM) and opted in favor of more “go anywhere” & alternative types.

    (3) Late in 2021 I became alarmed at valuations. That caused me to allocate about 9-10% to a defensive sleeve that typically rises when equities fall. I think some of the overvaluation has been removed, but equities are still rich. So that defensive position remains largely intact.
  • @hank. Nice to read and learn about what you're doing, and why.
  • @hank : What % does a bond heavy fund have to be in bonds before you would consider to "lighten" up on ? Was this in a tax advantage account ?
    I just "lightened" up on SFAAX & VLAAX in taxable account. Small holding in both so tax will be very small.
    Now , where to place the proceeds ?
    Enjoy the Tourney, Derf
  • edited March 18
    “What % does a bond heavy fund have to be in bonds before you would consider to "lighten" up on ? Was this in a tax advantage account ?”

    @Derf - Thanks for the question. No set percent. Easiest to explain if I post my allocation model.

    - 25% is assigned to fixed income. No changes were made in the composition. The weighting, however was reduced from 30% to 25%.

    - 25% is allocated to growth. I retained the holdings already in place, including DODBX (30% fixed income). But sold half of RPGAX (30% fixed) and substituted FLJP - a Japanese ETF.

    - A 10% allocation to the defensive position does contain 3 funds with substantial bond holdings. Those, however, tend to be short term or laddered, serving primarily as “ballast” while the funds invest the remaining amount in puts, calls and other derivatives.

    - That leaves the 40% alternative sleeve where most changes occurred. I axed 3 funds: AOK (70% fixed income), PRSIX (60% fixed income) and PSMM. The latter’s bond exposure is variable - but roughly in the 35-55% area. These were replaced by a market neutral fund, a long-short fund and one individual stock.

    (* I had to correct the stated percentages from initially. )


    Re question 2. The changes were all in Roth & Traditional IRAs. An investment in munis, which is part of the fixed income sleeve, remained the same.
  • edited March 18
    Ahhh, the new @hank:) .

    I recently (last week) did a switcheroo on my broad-basket commodities play. I bought DBC, Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund about a year ago and it's paid off really well. One of the smarter moves I've made among many dumb ones. But as recent energy volatility has shown, that ETF can be erratic. So, I looked at the comparable suggestion by other posters, COM, Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity Strategy, and moved my DBC money to COM. This is a managed ETF with historically less volatility, a smaller roller coaster.

    Another ETF I have my eye on is NANR, a natural resource ETF. Back in the last NR/commodities up-cycle I used to own a TRP fund, PRNEX. This would be a similar play. Just not sure how much of my portfolio I want to commit to these sectors (Commodities/PMs/NR).
  • edited March 18
    Mortgage credit in the port now at zero; it was by far my largest allocation in recent years. Last to go was EIXIX. AlphaCentric and Regan's entries in the category have been ~ 75% ROC recently, thus with a pitiful income yield. The category was flat early in the big 2022 selloff, weakening lately, and just not a whole lot of upside left in the tank. This is my obituary for the great debt trade of the last decade-plus. (I might buy in again on a true selloff and signs of recovery.)

    I'm probably more cautious than a lot of posters, given no pension and adequate but not massive savings/investment $. #1 position now is cash, #2 is PQTAX, with some ETFs mainly in trading mode. Capital preservation is the main objective at this point.
  • edited March 18
    As of today’s close my largest position will be Schwab’s muni money market fund SWOXX. At TD Ameritrade I am limited to only Schwab money market funds. Money market funds are beginning to rise reflecting the Fed’s action Wednesday. Also took out small positions Wednesday in a bank loan fund and even smaller one in a junk corporate. Very tight lease there, especially the junk fund, as I am barely ahead YTD and don’t want that to go poof. If I lose there hopefully the loss will be made up by money market fund, Thinking about TRMCX. Excited money market rates may eventually rise to 2% to 3%. Also excited the 10 year could go higher as that will positively impact annuity rates. Don’t need an annuity but sadly can’t think of where else to spend some of my nest egg. An annuity would bring peace of mind should I be cursed with a long life.

    Still very bearish and think we could be in for a 73/74 style bear. But also realize markets often begin to rebound when the headline news looks the worst. Was impressed with how the market reacted to the hawkish Fed news Wednesday. Would prefer to see a powerful upside/downside day or two to get aggressive which in the past has ended most bear /major corrections.
  • edited March 18
    @MikeM - Just shook off some old rust and slapped on some fresh paint … :)

    You’ve been consistent for a long while re your commodities exposure. Bolder than I who got out mostly last July. Too many memories of past tumbles in that sector. Glad it’s working for you. However, one of my largest holdings, ABRZX, has quite a bit of exposure to commodities as does PRPFX. I have liked / owned the metals and miners a long while. RIO was highlighted as part of the broader group in Barron’s last summer when I bought it. Its exposure to rare earth metals has benefited from all the global turmoil.

    @AndyJ - Thanks for mentioning an investor’s position and risk tolerance, At 76 I’m pretty risk averse (and have never maintained a separate “rainy day” cash stash). So I put a lot more thought into limiting potential downside than in growing what I have. I suspect many here are of an age, risk tolerance, where our thoughts may resonate.
  • edited March 18
    @Junkster, T-Bills are now better than m-market funds. Buy those commission-free at Fido, Schwab, etc. There is a nearby thread on the details for T-Bills and T-Notes.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59328/tough-day-in-bond-land#latest
  • @Junkster, T-Bills are now better than m-market funds. Buy those commission-free at Fido, Schwab, etc. There is a nearby thread on the details for T-Bills and T-Notes.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59328/tough-day-in-bond-land#latest

    Thanks yogi. Am ignorant on T-Bills. Always thought they weren’t as liquid as money market if I needed the money for an immediate fund trade?

  • edited March 18
    Junkster said:

    @Junkster, T-Bills are now better than m-market funds. Buy those commission-free at Fido, Schwab, etc. There is a nearby thread on the details for T-Bills and T-Notes.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59328/tough-day-in-bond-land#latest

    Thanks yogi. Am ignorant on T-Bills. Always thought they weren’t as liquid as money market if I needed the money for an immediate fund trade?

    Most people hold them to maturity but you can buy/sell them at tiny bid/ask spread ANYTIME. There is nothing more liquid than T-Bills.
  • edited March 18
    +1 @Junkster - Thanks for posting. Readers can surely benefit from your experience.

    I think it’s OK (or helpful ) for an investor to hold a broad macro view. That view may help shape investment direction. Yet, IMHO one shouldn’t let that macro view totally dictate allocation. A subtle difference - but the only way I can rationalize having some growth investments while maintaining an overall bearish view.

    Recognize that a “macro view” is much more complex than simply being “bear” or “bull”. I also think there may be pockets of value here and there (funds / individual stocks) if individuals do their homework first and than make measured bets.

  • edited March 21
    Sold all of my Y (Allegheny) at market open today after it popped 25% this morning on news Warren Buffett is buying it. Had held it about 6 weeks. Leaves a 5% hole in my portfolio. Wracking my brain trying to decide how to reposition that $$. Being bearish a long while it’s not easy finding risk assets I’m comfortable owning.
  • Congratulations!
  • Good for you @hank !!
  • edited March 21
    Thanks guys. I’d researched and had GATEX “waiting in the wings” in case Y proved to be too volatile for the alternative sleeve. So plugged most of the $$ Into GATEX - and added a small amount to cash position.

    This morning it was a case of “Shoot first. Ask questions later.” :)
  • Looks similar to JHQAX @hank. Investing in equities but a sleep well fund.
  • edited March 21
    @Hank … there’s what 25 days to see if Allegheny receives a better offer? You could always throw that 5% in a high flier like BRK.B ?

    Related to the threads topic but not to my post to @Hank above… purchased a few thousand worth of QQQ at $348 ish for a 16 year old relative. It’s down so much there’s nowhere to go but…?
  • edited March 22
    “there’s what 25 days to see if Allegheny receives a better offer? You could always throw that 5% in a high flier like BRK.B ?”

    Ummm … Good point. I’m not familiar with the legalities here. Is Berkshire locked in to the offer for 25 days? I’d have to guess that’s a very generous offer. Will be surprised if anyone tops it. FWIW: I sold at $846 having put in a limit offer before open. Y closed at $844.60. So there was a slight drift down during the day.

    Rocked my boat seeing it up 25% in the pre market hours. I’m very old and very conservative. Would have settled for 25% over 2 or 3 years. Already have 2 stocks in the growth sleeve. Having this one in the more conservative “alternative” sleeve was a real reach in the first place.

    Below is a link to the Barron’s article that whetted my appetite last November. I tracked and studied the company for over 3 months before deciding to take a bite. Averaged in during February / March while it was falling. Bottomed at $588 March 8. Currently $844.60

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-alleghany-stock-berkshire-hathaway-pick-51636151493

    But thanks for the thoughts.


    BTW - I think Barron’s is underappreciated.
  • Congratulation on your pick! Unless someone who can offer higher bid than Warren Buffet, Y will be part of Berkshire Hathaway after 25 days. He is known not to out-bid other competitors. Also he is buying the entire company, not just taking a major stake in the company as he did with Occidental. WB is over 90 years old and still maintain his edge.
  • Thanks @Sven - You are more up to date on this than I. I know that Y (per the Barron’s article) had been investing its profits from insurance into many smaller companies including specialized freight hauling boxes for trucks, toys and funeral accessories. The last one struck me as a decidedly growth oriented business. :) Barron’s saw it as worth a lot more than what shareholders were valuing it at. Apparently so did Buffett.
  • edited March 22
    WB understands insurance business well since Berkshire Hathaway owns several insurance companies including Geico. It is challenging for someone to overcome this acquisition with over $11B in cash.

    I too read Barron’s but often fail to follow up on the stories as you did. Again, job well done.
  • Funnyman WB. He is paying $848.02 for his newest acquisition Alleghany/Y. Why such an odd price? Well, that is $850 minus the fee for Goldman Sachs/GS that Y is paying - WB doesn't think GS found him as buyer for Y and his cash offer doesn't need any fancy footwork from GS.

    Alleghany/Y was captured in my summary then (although I didn't buy it) LINK
    "BULLISH. Insurer Alleghany (Y; no dividends but special dividends with the last one in 2020; fwd P/E 14.1 (2021), 9.7 (2022); P/B 1; like mini-BRK; businesses include P&C insurance, reinsurance and noninsurance businesses such as steel fabrication, toys, funeral products, etc; pg 15);"
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