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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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Buy Sell Why: 2022. Now, 2023.



  • edited May 2022
    Added $spxl
    will do 12 months covercall strike price 135 or 140...we will see

    think we may have very good chances of positive sessions next 1-2 trading days base on previous VIX...OF course nothing guaranteed and may head down again sp500 < 3856
  • I do not think a recession can be avoided. Stagflation will be a monster. El-Erian said as much, yesterday. I think he knows a thing or two.
  • edited May 2022
    Yesterday I made my first purchases of stocks from cash reserves since the start of the year after deciding those reserves and ballast sleeve holdings are sufficient. Nothing flashy for now. Added a little to SCHD and CDC. Also, initiated a small position in SGOVX which I last owned about a decade ago. My allocation to stocks is now near the top of their ~64% to ~67% portfolio range for this year.
  • edited May 2022
    Maybe good combine any dippers to these discussions

    Added tna lcid qqqm xlf fngu today at opening bell
    Cover all of them for one month prices ~ 15Delta
    Betting small caps and market has bottom formations, if not 3 5 years hold lol
  • Out fngu
  • edited May 2022
    Deployed some cash to new positions in SGENX and DODBX. I invested with SGENX awhile back. Added more to VEGI and COM.
  • Sold some recent purchases for S/T gains, since my guess is that this is just another bear market rally. Will sell more if up again tomorrow.
  • edited May 2022
    bear market rally
    That is for sure. Will see if this will advance tomorrow and weeks after. YTD, the US, developed and emerging markets are still down 14.4%, 11.6% and 13.6%, respectively. Bond index is also down 8.6%. So it will take some time to recover…

    The valuation has came down considerably. Have been adding selectively from large cash position.

  • Yes, Thursday was not bad. But it's surely not a sea-change. I will continue to nibble at the three single-stocks I own and add to them in baby-steps, as long as the investing environment continues to lick wet prairie dog fur. In T-IRA, I wish TRP had some more compelling bond offerings. It's like looking--- again--- to uncover the cleanest dirty shirt.
    PRNEX remains a big chunk of my sh... stuff. And PRISX. AND TRAMX, less so. Biggest item remains PRWCX. Bonds: PRFRX.... being gradually diminished.... And TUHYX. Then add ET (Energy Transfer LP) and BHB (Bar Harbor Bank) and RGR (Sturm Ruger.) Ok, go ahead and chew me out for holding the last one I just listed. .... ORK.
  • Sold RCTIX yesterday. Manager change just didn’t sit well.
  • edited May 2022
    Good morning
    Fake rally???
    If sp500can hold 21 dma then approach/past 200 dma maybe uptrends from there

    Feds meet soon and that can throw wrench into rally

    Happy weekend/holidays
  • Yes, maybe a dead cat bounce. But going into the week-end, I'll take it....
  • edited May 2022
    Level5 said:

    Sold RCTIX yesterday. Manager change just didn’t sit well.

    Yeah, I sold RCTIX a few weeks ago for the same reason.

  • Do CD purchases count ? 1% matures 7/22 . Better than .05 % in the bank ! I'll be doing a ladder , with 3 month CD up next. The big question , has Mr. Market priced in the (6)? Fed raises ?
  • edited June 2022
    Derf said:

    Do CD purchases count ? 1% matures 7/22 . Better than .05 % in the bank ! I'll be doing a ladder , with 3 month CD up next. The big question , has Mr. Market priced in the (6)? Fed raises ?

    ...Good question...... I just find those levels of CD rates are a waste of time. I kinda wish there were some other outfit that operates like Israel Bonds: selling sovereigns in dollars at a pretty good interest rate, even zero-coupon stuff. I'd be tempted. Ya, US bonds offer a good rate right now. But they're VARIABLE. I don't want to buy a pig in a poke. And i don't wanna be constantly in and out and making changes every few months.
  • Moved my chips into FZDXX money market at Fido, earning about .70% and hopefully on the rise. Waiting on additional Fed rate increases before setting up a CD ladder.
  • edited September 2022
    Silly, stoopid me: Today, just started an initial, tiny position in Norsk Hydro NHYDY at $6.42/share. Where is it NOW? $6.33. Ya.
  • I sold out of AMZN & GOOGL pre-market figuring that better prices are coming. We'll see. Otherwise just sitting on my hands.
  • edited September 2022
    Added little pltr and Leep cover call

    Added vht puts sale to open 3 months strike 220 Delta 16
  • edited September 2022
    We’ve now entered Fed Blackout, a period when members are forbidden from making public comment leading up to their next scheduled FOMC meeting September 20-21. Their “wide open” mouths the past few weeks have moved markets both at home and also abroad as the dollar soared to record highs against most other currencies.

    Sitting on my hands now, having spent the past 10-15 days making relatively minor adjustments in a rapidly changing investment environment. I’ve sold 100% of TAIL - held since early in the year as a hedge. While it softened daily volatility it didn’t make me any money. Poor job reading / analyzing that one. A very small hold on 1X inverse SPDN is now even smaller - about 1% of holdings. I’m a lot less bearish than 8-10 months ago.

    Added CCOR (after tracking it more than 6 months) in part to fill the void left by selling TAIL. It’s seen primarily as a hedge with the added potential to make a small profit over time. Added a bit to GNMA (etf) as the 10-year approached 3.25-3.50%. Not looking to make much, if any, on that one. It’s seen as a hedge (speed brake) in the event of an equity rout. A small chunk went into ARKK along with an equally weighted “counter-balancing” hold in a consumer staples (bakery) stock. Will rebalance between those two as necessary. While technically part of my “spec” portfolio, I intend to hold both for the long term.
  • Is that Cathie Woods' ARKK? you're brave.
  • edited September 2022
    Crash said:

    Cathie Woods' ARKK? you're brave.

    The folks who bought it a year ago when it was 70% higher were the brave ones.

  • edited September 2022
    @hank Not surprisingly, the $US value began its current journey shortly after the Ukraine invasion, also resulting in the drop $EUR. The US still remains a stable country related to rules and laws and more or less less not as greatly impacted by commodity and energy products versus many other countries.
    @Crash I don't find buying now, either ARKK (Innovation) or ARKG (Genomics) so much of a gamble versus other investments that have been mentioned during the past year here at MFO. If one does not believe in innovation being profitable, whether more pure tech. or medical technology going forward; then stay away from this area.
    There remains plenty of investment areas where one may discover the pain of 'investment burn', for any number of reasons, be it company or fund management, events beyond one's control or upon the individual investor behavior.

    Being BRAVE in the investment world should have a foundation of experience and knowledge of the investment.
  • edited September 2022
    Thanks @Catch22,

    Not wanting to give the wrong impression, I did the math and ARKK currently accounts for 1.75% of portfolio. As stated earlier, a counterbalancing / parallel consumer staples stock is of roughly equal weight (3.5% combined). Per Mark Antony, “Bravery should be made of sturner stuff.”:)

    The best way to view my current take on risk (in a widely diverse portfolio) is to look at the % allocated to all forms of fixed income, including cash. My normal fixed income allocation is 20-25%. It is currently at 19%, putting me at a slightly higher than normal risk exposure. Should markets experience a prolonged uptick, I’ll increase fixed income / reduce risk.

    The stated fixed income allocation is a “raw” number and does not include additional amounts that may be held inside allocation & alternative type funds.
  • The Fed blackout period doesn't preclude one of the open mouths at the Fed (typically, not a current FOMC voting member) talking to WSJ's Nick Timiraos. As NT wrote book/profiles on some Fed people, I can now see why this strange wink-wink relationship exists.
  • The Fed blackout period doesn't preclude one of the open mouths at the Fed (typically, not a current FOMC voting member) talking to WSJ's Nick Timiraos. As NT wrote book/profiles on some Fed people, I can now see why this strange wink-wink relationship exists.

    Yup. Remember John Hilsenrath?
  • edited September 2022
    Well, they certainly won’t be happy with today’s action (especially Kashkari). Most everything except the kitchen sink’s up.

    “When the cat’s away the mice will play.” :)

    I’m thinking maybe Mr. Kashkari has shorts on?
  • ......Taking a wee bit both from TRAMX and PRNEX to add to TUHYX. The current SEC yield on the latter is up to 9.08% today. "Gimme some." Nothing actually substantial, on purpose.
  • edited September 2022
    Let’s hope that August’s CPI number releases on Tuesday, Sept 13 is lowered than than of July, peaking of inflation maybe the turning point of the Fed to slowdown the rate hike. Many said a 50 bps is more likely. Think I will buy more treasury after the rate hike and hold them to maturity.

    I have been trading commodity futures in and out several times this year. Winter is several months away. Energy and food may lead the market again.

  • at last dip bot lots cdc, ccor, vong
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