Dear friends,

Welcome to Spring. Some diehards erroneously insist that they’re “officially” winter-bound until the Spring equinox, March 20^th this year. It need not be so.

There are two springs. Meteorological spring, which is aligned with temperatures and growing seasons, is March 1st. Astronomical spring, which is aligned with the wobble of the earth on its axis (called “precession”), begins with the Continue reading →

The US stock market remains among the most extreme valuation of the past 150 years, at least as measured by the Schiller 10-year PE ratio.

Traditionally bear markets bottom out with a Continue reading →

Mark Twain wrote in 1907, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” The differences in opinion about soft or hard landings center on how trends are measured, data accuracy, revisions, seasonal adjustments, and which data to follow. I provide Chart #3 of what I am monitoring over the next six months as the story about soft or hard landings unfolds. Continue reading →

Recently, I had a long chat with Amit Wadhwaney, the founder of Moerus Capital Management and the adviser to Moerus Worldwide Value Fund. He is a very thoughtful and seasoned investor. Here are some of his thoughts on his fund and his stock-picking style. I’ve presented a summary of my notes rather than an actual Q&A, but the flavor of their investing style will hopefully come through. Continue reading →

Readers know that I long ago concluded that active management rarely adds value to an investor’s portfolio. There are too many managers fighting over the same stocks. Very few of them have a meaningful Edge over the others. Most of those who add some value rarely add enough to overcome the drag imposed by their expenses and higher tax burden. Some few add serious value, but they are almost impossible to reliably identify in advance.

That said, I am about to commit two heresies in one column: I will suggest that you consider Continue reading →

It is painfully clear that many investing sites operate at the lowest common denominator level. They might rely on mechanical articles written to a pretty crude template; you could refer to our analysis of Zacks as an example. Continue reading →

This is my annual assessment of the funds that I own and whether it makes sense to hold them with my annual outlook, as described in this month’s companion article. My outlook is “Risk Off” because of economic uncertainty, plus bonds are now paying an attractive yield. The funds assessed in this article exclude bond funds, individual stock, and American Century Advantis All Equity Markets (AVGE). As interest rates rose and stocks and bonds fell, I gradually sold my most volatile funds and bought short-term ladders of certificates of deposit and Treasuries to lock in higher yields. With interest rates higher, I now ask myself, would I rather own my remaining funds in my intermediate buckets or make four or five percent in safer investments? That is the question.

I use the “Bucket Approach” and have Fidelity Wealth Management manage my longer-term portfolios, which collectively resemble Continue reading →