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  • Did ya know that lead times for NVDA chips are really getting shorter? Not a good sign. Do they palo alto networks after the close if they miss? Down 30% the next two days? Too binary and too much of a gamble for my tastes...

    Don't listen to me, I don't know anything about anything.

    Good luck to all

    Baseball fan
  • edited February 22
    Good news bad news.

    Bad News: We watched NVDA drop ~4% after earnings but the move DOWN then back UP was too fast for my aging fingers. (Easily seen on the chart.) So we missed out on the last intended 30% of BUYs as price had run UP too far above our avg cost basis which was just below today's close.

    Good News: A +/-11% swing was projected. High was 746 on 2/12. I think the very brief low after hours was 647. So the DROP from its recent high was ~13%. The after hours move was UP 9.1%.

    The price action DOWN effectively took place Tues-Wed, before Wed close. We DCA'd into it comfortably BELOW its recent high on those 2 days. With the post-earnings POP, we're UP ~8.7% post-after hours trading. Undecided on ST trade or LT hold. First we'll see what pre-market trading does.

    EDIT: From the "It's NVDA's world, and we're just living in it" file - NVDA is now UP ~14% in pre-market trading putting us UP ~13.3%. So then, with our recent GOOGL ST +6% trade, it's OK to say, "Yeah, but a blind squirrel finds a nut from time to time." But twice within 3 weeks time? And the second being (for the time being at least) twice as big? For 'bughers, "Double Yoi!" might be more appropriate! (RIP Myron!)
  • Hey whatda know. NVDA up after hours... like I said don't listen to me..
  • Looking to add to my fixed income allocation, JEPI was sold and replaced with WCPNX which should perform well over the next few years.
  • PRESSmUP said:

    Looking to add to my fixed income allocation, JEPI was sold and replaced with WCPNX which should perform well over the next few years.

    The very thing! The very one I've been investigating! Have I done something RIGHT, maybe, for a change? ;)
  • I sure hope so!
  • @stillers

    Those of us who are regular investors have often heard investment professionals state that market volatility presents investment opportunities, and over the course of the past couple weeks you are a perfect example of this, being able to take advantage of market/specific stock volatility....good for you!

    I don't have the intestinal fortitude to take those risks, thus my upside may be more limited but also my potential downside.

    In the past we have owned a very small piece of PRSCX, and only briefly. The adventuresome part of our portfolio currently is Mastercard which we've built slowly over the past 3+ years to 2.5% of assets and since the inception of TCAF, that is also at 2.5%. If those positions beat the market, great. But, that is not necessarily the goal - mainly to add a little measured spice to our overwhelming position in TRAIX/PRWCX.

    Not sure if it has been mentioned on MFO threads, but I read recently in the WSJ that one unnamed NVDA customer accounted for 19% of their previous years sales...could it be META?
  • The reports I've read list MSFT, GOOG/L and META as their top customers. However I've also read some reports that state MSFT & META are working toward producing AI chips in-house.
  • edited February 24
    @Roy

    Great points on placement of types of investments. FWIW, we are still 97% IRAs so virtually all of our trades/exchanges are in them. And having a Cap on Sector or Explore holdings has definitely worked for us.

    Thanks for the kind words! So far so good with our re-entry into trading some indv stocks. This new strategy has surely worked - so far.

    We'll stick to what's worked - so far:
    major blue chips only, pretty much Mag 7 and a few others,
    fundamentals and T/A will be looked at but
    the key driver will be investor psychology, mainly unwarranted price punishment,
    each time it will be an option play of ST trade of LT hold depending on circumstances,
    and we likely won't know what the next one will be or
    when it's going to strike, but probably around earnings time mostly.
    GOOGL popped out of nowhere, while NVDA was being studied for a coupla weeks.

    On NVDA revenue:

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/nvidia-to-top-meta-record-with-nearly-us-250b-value-jump-1.2037901#:~:text=Companies such as Amazon.com,in hardware for AI computing.

    Here's an overall % for the BIG customers. I have not read what you have about the 19% customer. But if the following is correct, my WAG is that 19% to one then seems a bit high, but it's possible the other 3 only make up 21%.

    Excerpt BOLD added)

    Companies such as Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google are Nvidia’s largest customers, accounting for nearly 40 per cent of its revenue , as they rush to invest in hardware for AI computing.
  • Companies such as Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google are Nvidia’s largest customers, accounting for nearly 40 per cent of its revenue , as they rush to invest in hardware for AI computing.

    Talk about CONCENTRATED. That's freaky-scary. Unhealthy. These companies which I love to hate "own" more and more (and MORE!) of the Market, every time you just turn around. But it's the only (unethical) game in town. Can't stop my Fund Managers from investing in them. The FMs would say they're just trying to make money for me. Oh, well. Stuck in this web, along with everyone else who has not yet managed to escape to a different planet.
  • The unnamed NVDA end user customer that accounts for 19% of sales info came from Friday's WSJ front page article. Here is a part of that article by Gunjan Banerji.

    "Nvidia’s boom is largely dependent on a handful of those companies. Nvidia disclosed
    that 19% of its sales in its last fiscal year came from one end customer. It didn’t disclose the identity of the customer, but cloud-computing companies like Google, Amazon and Microsoft accounted for more than half of the revenue for its data-center division in its latest quarter, or over $9.2 billion."
  • edited February 26
    FWIW, GOOGL is back at and a wee bit below the price at which we BOT it ($140 and change) after its earnings announcement and ~6% drop. That DROP was widely regard as unwarranted and we played it to our advantage and SOLD after it recouped its ~6%. So in retrospect, we were clearly, to some extent at least, lucky. But, that's not to say we won't entertain a repeat ride.
  • edited February 27
    GOOGL obliged and hit our target re-entry price (actually hit it yesterday but we were away from the market) so we've rolled the dice a 2nd time on it at $137.76 this AM, lower than our first roll at $140.39. We did not have enough ca$h available to make this BUY as potentially impactful as the first. But...we'll likely be freeing up some more today to possibly play again manana.

    EDIT: SELLing a bit of two outperformers, PRWAX and FDSVX, to create ca$h for some more BUYing of GOOGL and possibly other indv stock trades. And it appears GOOGL is (coincidentally) cooperating with our plan by stay within our target price range!
  • edited February 28
    BOT more shares of GOOGL while down slightly in pre-market trading to bring position to intended level. Avg share price just under $138 (a wee bit lower than the $140+ on our first BUY/SELL). Will either be another ST trade. if we get a bounce, or will ADD to position as LT HOLD. All yet TBD.

    EDIT: Decided to dbl the position. BOT more shares during early market action as price kept falling. Snagged next batch at just under $136. Fun stuff!

    EDIT_2: Closed out the position with some BUYs later in the day in the $135's, to end at an avg purchase price of $137, less than 1/2% below today's Close. Seems to be about where we were when we took the first ride on GOOGL. Lot of negativity towards it now but thinking we should be just about done with this round of punishment. We'll see!
  • @Stillers, are you avoiding BIDU?
  • edited February 28
    BaluBalu said:

    @Stillers, are you avoiding BIDU?

    BIDU has always been off our radar. Pretty much avoiding China entirely while limiting direct Foreign exposure to ~10%. Only known China exposure is indirect via domestic holdings.
  • edited March 1
    SOLD entire NVDA position that was BOT last week for a 20% gain.

    Coulda had BOT more shares. Shoulda SOLD last week at a wee bit higher. But hard to feel too bad about a 20% trade.

    Gonna miss holding the BIG fella individually, but still have a 5% portfolio allocation to it in funds, mostly via FSELX.

    SOLD position loosely based on IBD's concept of re-evaluating positions when UP ~25%. Would you BUY it again at the current price? To that we answered "No" as we believe NVDA, Big Tech, and in effect then, the overall market is inching closer to an overdue Correction.

    Right or wrong, what's done is done. Onto the next opportunity as IBD suggests!
  • Dipped my toe into China. Just a little bit. India is getting all the attention but seems pretty expensive, and when 40% of investors in a survey believe China is "uninvestable" sentiment seems like it can hardly get worse.

    Sentiment is so negative and BABA is trading at 8 times free cash flow and it's ratio of free cash to market cap is 35%. Of course this assumes the Commies learned their lesson in the last few years that to run a modern economy you have to lighten up on market manipulation.
  • Of course this assumes the Commies learned their lesson in the last few years that to run a modern economy you have to lighten up on market manipulation.
    Yes this is the crux of the China investment problem. China isn't investible until their government decides that outside investment is a priority, instead of their need for total control. So far, not. So far, guessing if things will change, or that they need to change, is a bettor's game for now. BABA and BIDU should be excellent investments on their own merit, but...

    Agree, India has run up quite a bit. Maybe to fast.
  • edited March 1
    India. Back in thee 2000s, uncle Jeffrey Gundlach said India was "set it and forget it." Just a marvelous money-making engine.

    Maybe so. But EM has been so volatile. And so promising, but for my money, inconsistent, and it has not delivered since the post-Crash go-go days in EM bonds. I made good money then. ...Add to that, a reference I caught somewhere much more recently: India is still a "Wild West" environment regarding regulations, compliance. So many layers of bureaucracy. (Read, "corruption," like the built-in corruption and graft and bribery in the Philippines. Grease the wheels, and you can make it happen. Or make it happen much more expeditiously.)
  • +2.59% today...what could possibly go wrong?
  • Well! You done GOOD! Just don't hold your breath, eh? MLP ET was my best performer. But it's just 5% of portfolio, by design. Don't wanna make too-big bets with single stocks. ET +2.32% just today, Friday.
  • @PRESSmUP, what is up 2.59 today? Your portfolio?
  • edited March 2
    @MikeM ...yes, 2 of my single stock holdings decided to bust out...including a run-up to Broadcom's earnings next week.
  • Shuffled the deck today and added small bits to CGDV, JQUA and QLTY. All had 1%+ losses which I couldn't figure out other than market nonsense. I suppose I should just wait for a larger correction but I've no clue when that will happen.

    Swapped some GOOGL for FTEC. FTEC down 2.3% and GOOGL down 0.7%. Just seemed like the thing to do. If I had any sense at all I would have sold all of my GOOGL 2 weeks ago.
  • Bought the min of QDSNX, a high ER fund of funds that went up on a day when equities got hit hard.

    Purchased for purposes of "diversification" and because I was bored.
  • Sold PIMIX for modest positions in RSIIX, RCTIX, and the bulk of funds into VG mmkt. Shifted funds from a singular focus on income to funds that include capital appreciation/preservation.
  • Cleaning house in the IRA.

    Sold VWINX. Had it for a long, long, time. Oh well. Proceeds will go into PRWCX and FBALX. I still have VWELX until it benefits from those falling rates we keep hearing about.

    Sold PARWX. It's just not the fund it used to be. Proceeds went into bond funds THOPX, FATRX, and FCFAX. I'm trying to get to 30% bonds.

    Sold RWJ. I still have it in the taxable. It's a little too bumpy for me in the IRA. Proceeds went into FMIMX, XMHQ, and SYLD. I still have enough funds in the IRA to make M* Christine weep.

    Started stakes in FMILX, AUSF, and DIVO. And boy howdy, did I have to jump through some hoops at Fido to buy DIVO. I had to convince the machine that I take full responsibility for my insane behavior fooling around with a fund whose top ten holding are a MMF, Walmart, Microsloth, Home Despot, Procter & Gamble, Visa, McDonalds, United Health, Goldman Sachs, and Chevron. At the present time they have options written on four of the stocks out of 31 in their portfolio. What shall I tell the children?

    To feed those new funds I sold VDIGX, DODGX, and DGRW. Sometime soon I will be selling FSMEX, which I still have in the taxable.

    Sold DODWX. The proceeds will go into IHDG for my only dedicated foreign holding.

    More cuts to come, especially if this rally continues.
  • edited March 7
    @WABAC,

    You have been busy!

    FWIW, when I learned about XMHQ from you, I sold my FSMEX and bought XMHQ but I know you already own a lot of XMHQ.

    Do you mind sharing your thoughts on why you chose SYLD at this time? Thanks
  • Sold some of daughter's AMZN and APPL ( they were up to 20% of her accounts) and bought COWZ and Smead Value. Put her new Roth IRA $ into SFGIX and MOWN
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